Scottie Barnes Has Arrived. But Can He Be A True Alpha On A Contender?

In Toronto, Barnes has become a legitimate All-Star, a super athlete and one of the best defenders in the league. And yet, he’s become more than that. Those descriptors barely scratch the surface of what he’s evolved into during the postseason, even as Cleveland maneuvers aggressively to neutralize him. But to reach true NBA alpha status, the refinement has just begun.

Skeptics – and there are many – will say that Barnes can’t hit a three. And the regular season doesn’t lie. It points to a mediocre 30.4 percentage from the perimeter. For no.1 players in the modern game, if you can’t space the floor you become a liability. Barnes can look shaky from outside the arc. And watching him handle those possessions you can tell he’s not as confident as he should be. Quite often he shifts the ball to a player not as equipped as he is to make the shot.

The comparisons tell the story of his transition. Early in his career Barnes was compared to Draymond Green: a cultural and defensive anchor who didn’t need to score to dominate. But Barnes has outgrown that. During this playoff run, the 24-year-old has notched 103 points, outpacing established stars like Jalen Brunson and James Harden. He is currently averaging 25.8 points per game on a career-high usage rate – a significant leap from the regular season, where he was the Raptors’ third-leading scorer at 18.1 per game.

If you look at what Kawhi Leonard brings to the floor, you marvel at his precise mid-range shot. You look at how he doesn’t waste the ball when he has control. All while maintaining high-end defensive metrics and being a Top 10 scorer. At 34, Leonard is still providing elite consistency. If Barnes wants to take his and the Raptors game to the next level this is what is required.

While the signs are good for Barnes his numbers suggest he’s a player still in transition. This year he’s improved his clutch plays. He’s more composed when the game slows down. But he’s under more pressure now from opposition teams and coughs the ball up unlike players like Tyus Jones and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who are elite at playmaking under pressure.

It’s also worth noting that his usage rate of 30.2 (Game 1 and 2) is a career high. Can he maintain this over two playoff months? Over a season? At some point Barnes has to become more precise when he has the ball. Whether it’s his close-range shot efficiency under pressure, decision-making or long ball. And who knows what happens in this series. If Barnes can continue what he’s been able to produce so far, he’ll have another off-season to work on details and gaps and be able to begin next season an elevated version of himself.

Being the alpha isn’t just about high-scoring games. It’s how you use the ball when you have it. Defensive systems are designed to stop no.1 players with crowding, aggression and smart schemes. The best find ways to keep doing the elite things. Players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Lebron, Luka Doncic have all been able to find ways to keep playing their game. And this is what makes them alpha: they know what to do, when to do it and do it often.

All of this puts Barnes in a very familiar space where some NBA players live and never leave. The leap from very good to Apex predator like Giannis, is harder than it seems. Barnes doesn’t need more dunks or high assist numbers. He needs a three-pointer that threatens the 36-percent mark. He needs more of those takeover moments. He needs to validate his defensive potential with a Defensive Player of the Year trophy.

The jury is still out on Barnes but the evidence is mounting. The Raptors have not beaten Cleveland on the road in the playoffs since 2016 and own a 0-9 record during that period. Game 5 is another opportunity to demonstrate the vanguard version of Barnes. Toronto always knew what they had in the guy they affectionately call “Scottie”. The question becomes: how much better can he get? According to Raptors head coach Darko Rajaković he’s only reached 60 percent of his ceiling. “Scottie is going to be one the best players in the league,” he told the media.

Barnes just proved he can win a Game 4. Can he take his game to the next level and define a Raptors era?

This article was originally published on Forbes.com