The Oklahoma City Thunder await their Round 2 opponent after sweeping the Phoenix Suns. They could face either the Los Angeles Lakers or the Houston Rockets, with the Lakers currently leading the series 3-1.
Apr 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) defends Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) in the first half of game two of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs against the Houston Rockets at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
After another Round 1 sweep, the Oklahoma City Thunder get to enjoy a mini-vacation. They took care of business against the Phoenix Suns with a mundane Game 4 win on Monday. Turns out, the lopsided matchup played out exactly like everybody thought it would.
Now, the Thunder await their Round 2 opponent. It'll either be the Los Angeles Lakers or the Houston Rockets. Considering the Lakers hold a tight 3-1 series lead, feels like it's going to be them to advance to face the reigning NBA champions.
Both teams have been without important pieces. The Lakers remain without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. The Rockets have only had Kevin Durant suit up once in the NBA playoffs. That has caused this weird Round 1 matchup to feature the zombie versions of both contenders. Not something you typically see.
The Thunder could face either the Los Angeles Lakers or the Houston Rockets in Round 2.
The Los Angeles Lakers lead the series against the Houston Rockets 3-1.
The Lakers are without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, while the Rockets have had Kevin Durant play only once in the playoffs.
The Oklahoma City Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns in the first round.
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Let's spell out every argument for the Lakers and Rockets as to why the Thunder should and shouldn't favor a matchup against them in the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs:
Apr 2, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic (77) drives between Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort (5) and guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
The Thunder had the Lakers' number this season. They won all four matchups, with three being blowouts. The only somewhat close game was a nine-point win. OKC's two lopsided home wins over Los Angeles went viral across social media on their respective nights. They doubled them up on the scoreboard in games that played out in the same fashion.
In the NBA, matchups are as important as talent. And while there isn't a 25-plus point gap between the two rosters, the scoreboard suggests OKC is tailor-made to destroy Los Angeles. The Thunder possess ample great athletes and ball-hawk defenders. That's nightmare stuff for an older Lakers squad that doesn't really have elite athleticism to keep up. Mix everything and you see why these games weren't particularly close.
I'd love to see the Lakers' middling defense try everything to slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He's fresh off shredding an upper-echelon defense in the Suns. Marcus Smart has been a playoff riser so far, but he's got zero chance to slow down the reigning MVP from having another efficient 30-plus point series. He's just on a mission this postseason to avoid any hiccups.
This also doesn't factor in Doncic. Nobody knows when he'll be back. I guess the hope is sometime in this Round 2 matchup. Not playing for over a month and hopping right into playoff basketball seems like a tall task. Especially for somebody coming off a serious hamstring strain. We know how deadly those can be. Even if Los Angeles' MVP candidate returns, how effective he is and if his legs can hold up are a completely different tier of questions.
Apr 2, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) goes up for a basket as Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) defends during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
Sometimes, regular-season success doesn't translate to the playoffs. All the Lakers need is to steal one of Game 1 or 2 to feel themselves. They're certainly capable of doing. Reference Apr. 2025 for proof. Absolutely embarrassing the Rockets, they'd enter this Round 2 series with some mojo. Los Angeles' defense has been stellar in the playoffs. Albeit against a Durant-less Houston.
We've seen Lakers role players have a big Round 1 series. Luke Kennard dropped two 20-plus point games. Smart has been a playoff riser. Ala Alex Caruso. Maybe those two can carry that momentum against OKC. If there's one weak spot in their league-best defense, it's allowing teams to let it fly from deep. Perhaps Los Angeles makes them reconsider that strategy with hot outside shooting nights.
Also, the Thunder will enter their first true playoff road environment. No offense to Phoenix. I loved the city. But the atmosphere was a little dry. Almost as if Suns fans walked into the building knowing the inevitable was bound to happen. Los Angeles is different. It's one of the NBA's best atmospheres. That could rattle OKC in tight games.
And then there's Doncic. We've talked about all the possible repercussions of his return. But let's spin zone this into a positive — what if he immediately returns to being an MVP candidate? He averaged an unreal 33.5 points, 8.3 assists and 7.7 rebounds this season. Those were MVP-esque numbers. Los Angeles bringing back that version could completely flip this series. He was part of the last team to boot OKC from the playoffs. History could repeat itself.
Oct 21, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) keeps the ball away from Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
I mean, have you seen them play in the playoffs? The Rockets have had a 'dead man walking' vibe to them all playoffs. Feels like Durant's brutal injury luck has popped any optimism for a playoff run. After playing 78 regular-season games, he's only played in one playoff game. The 37-year-old has been hindered by a knee bruise and ankle sprain. Without his efficient 25 points, Houston's offense has looked elementary.
Considering the Rockets have struggled to reach the century mark against the Lakers, you can only shudder at what the Thunder would do. You could see Houston put up some throwback scoring numbers against the league-best defenders. Their lack of playmakers and shooting serves up as a prime meal for OKC's turnover-creation machine. And that's even if Durant suits up. Speaking of.
Let's address the elephant in the room. A playoff series against Durant is exactly the type of drama the NBA loves. Thunder fans would totally lean into the storyline. They already boo him louder than any other opposing player for a decade. Now throw in the high stakes involved in a playoff series. That would easily be the top storyline in a one-sided Round 2 series.
The Thunder have had the Rockets' number this season. They won two of three matchups. That included a double-overtime thriller on Opening Night as Durant witnessed OKC unveil its championship banner and hand out rings. And their one loss stemmed from Gilgeous-Alexander's absence. This Round 2 series would go pretty chalk — especially since it requires Houston pulling off the impossible and coming back from a 3-0 series deficit.
Jan 15, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Alex Caruso (9) attempts to steal the ball from Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun (28) during the third quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
One of the ways we've seen teams upset the Thunder is on the glass. If you can dominate the offensive rebounds, you have a chance to stay close. That's off of sheer volume. It makes sense when you think about it. The more shot attempts you take, the larger your margin for error is. And even without Steven Adams, the Rockets have built their offensive identity behind that principle.
The Rockets are cool playing in low-scoring rockfights. In fact, that's their preferred method to win. They still have one of the league's best defenses. And against the Thunder, it'll be a matchup of strength against strength. Maybe they can steal a few games playing that style of basketball. Of course, it would require Durant to hit big-time shots and Alperen Sengun to be much more efficient around the rim.
It hasn't been mentioned yet, but there's also the Jalen Williams factor. He missed the last two games with a hamstring strain. It's the third in four months. Not good. He remains week-to-week. If he misses any time in Round 2, that could gum up OKC's offense. Especially against the Rockets if they sell out to stop Gilgeous-Alexander. There's no true SGA stopper in the league, but Amen Thompson can give him fits. If the reigning MVP looks closer to Clark Kent than Superman, you have to be nervous about who could help him out.
Those are really the only things the Thunder have to worry about with the Rockets. The latter can win in one style only. It kinda makes them one-dimensional and easy to figure out. Durant's participation in this playoff series would be a dope story, but he's not really at the stage anymore where he can single-handedly swing a series over to Houston's favor. He'll put up his scoring numbers, but also struggle with doubles and cough up turnovers.
Oct 21, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) and center Alperen Sengun (28) react after a play against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
Barring NBA history, the Thunder will face the Lakers. They need to get one more win in three tries to do so. But if the Rockets somehow pull off the unthinkable, OKC will be the second-biggest party outside of Houston. We already saw what happened when a team with a middling offense faced them in the NBA playoffs this year in the Suns. Imagine a similar outcome if it's the Rockets.
Fred VanVleet's absence has clouded Houston all year. Expect it to be the reason they ultimately exit the NBA playoffs. You can't win in 2026 without an actual playmaker. Just not possible. Which makes Houston's decision to stand pat at the trade deadline despite an obvious need even more puzzling. Playing OKC's defense with Durant and Sengun as your lead ball-handlers is a disaster waiting to happen.
Against either opponent, the Thunder should take care of business in a low-stress series. It won't be a one-sided sweep like their Round 1 matchup, but we could see from the jump that they're tiers ahead of either the Lakers or Rockets. That said, the latter would be the easier walk in the park. You're feeding a bunch of piranhas buckets of blood-soaked meat with that hypothetical opponent.
This article originally appeared on OKC Thunder Wire: Should OKC Thunder root for Lakers or Rockets to advance to Round 2?