Should OKC Thunder root for Suns or Warriors to capture 8th seed?

Jan 4, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) against Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) in the second half at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Respectfully speaking, the talent discrepancy is too wide to ignore. Thanks to the NBA Cup, the Thunder faced the Suns five times this season. And you can throw away the last matchup as the regular-season finale was filled by both squads' third-string players. The first four featured three wins by OKC. Two were blowouts. And its sole loss to Phoenix came in a game-winner.

The Suns have been a feel-good story this season. They've played like a miniature version of the Thunder. A bunch of role players who know their part and have gutted out a top-10 defense. The only problem with that is that everything Phoenix is good at, OKC is better. That's a bad recipe for a playoff series.

It also doesn't help that Devin Booker has historically struggled against the Thunder. He averaged 22.5 points on 41.7% shooting in two games against them this season. He shot 27.3% from 3 on 5.5 attempts. Just not winning numbers from your best player. Especially since Phoenix doesn't really have another go-to scorer — sans the occasional heater from streaky Jalen Green.

I really like what the Suns have done this season. It's been quite a turnaround from last year's miserable experience. And they're better than the previous two eighth seeds the Thunder have faced. But OKC should be able to wrap this up relatively quickly just from stacking both rosters next to each other.

The case against the Suns

Jan 4, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns forward Dillon Brooks (3) controls the ball against Oklahoma City Thunder guard Jalen Williams (8) in the second half at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

If you remove OKC's two blowout losses, the Suns have played the Thunder well. I know that's an extremely small sample size, but it leans to this Round 1 hypothetical at least featuring a few close games. And in those, it could be a coin toss that could go against the reigning NBA champions. And even with his down season, Booker still has the playoff pedigree to go bucket-for-bucket in clutch moments — ala his game-winner over Alex Caruso this past regular season.

The Suns could also see other role players step up. Green is the ultimate wildcard. What if he suddenly becomes a 20-point scorer with hot outside shooting? Also, guys like Dillon Brooks and Grayson Allen could be nuisances to OKC. That's their whole playstyle, after all. Especially Brooks, as he's enjoyed a career season as a 20-point scorer.

Other Phoenix role players could also have a hot series. Guys like Royce O'Neale, Collin Gillespie and Jordan Goodwin have shown the ability to randomly go off. With six double-digit scorers on the roster, the Suns run a team-friendly offense that doesn't really have a pecking order. That makes them dangerous from a certain angle.

That makes them a scary team. The Suns are the exact type of team that could muddy up a game and expose the Thunder's inconsistent halfcourt offense. If they do that, they could steal a game or two. Which opens the door for doubts and throws OKC off a rhythm. Even if it's brief.

The case for the Warriors

Mar 7, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) shoots over Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Even with their resilient win over the Clippers to keep their season alive, I still feel like the Warriors are a team on the cusp of being knocked out. And a Round 1 date with the Thunder will surely assure that. Over the last three seasons, OKC has won eight of its 11 matchups against Golden State. This season, they swept all four games. Three were blowouts.

It'll be a matchup of opposite teams. The Thunder are young and deep. The Warriors are old and top-heavy. You've seen that in the post-All-Star break stretch. OKC has played its best basketball while Golden State limped to the finish line with a near-empty tank of gas. If it hasn't happened already, this would be a symbolic passing of the torch from the NBA's most recent dynasty to possibly its new one.

There's no real game planning around that. The personnel are what they are for both sides. Feels like any fighting chance the Warriors had at upsetting the Thunder went down when Jimmy Butler III sustained a torn ACL. And Moses Moody's patellar tendon injury was just a slap to the face to their depth.

The Warriors are just too old and slow to keep up with the Thunder. That makes them a juicy matchup for OKC. They'd completely blitz them and run them out of the gym in transition. This just has a Round 1 series sweep written all over it. There's a reason why most ranked Golden State as the weakest of the four play-in teams out West.

The case against the Warriors

Nov 11, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Ajay Mitchell (25) defends a drive by Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The Warriors' 2010 dynasty carries a heavy shadow. There is still a sense of dominance when you see Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Even if the last few years paint a mediocre team. One of the benefits of such an ancient roster? An endless stream of playoff experience. From Al Horford to Kristaps Porzingis. Golden State's rotation is filled with guys who know how to handle high-leverage spots. A play-in tournament game pales in comparison to Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals.

Also — and not to bury the lede — there's always the Curry factor. The two-time MVP winner is one of the greatest players ever. And even at the 38-year-old's twilight stage of his career, he can still go on a heater to completely change a game's story. Look at his 35 points in their win over the Clippers. Even with missing two months with a knee injury, he can walk on a court and turn into the NBA's boogeyman as soon as he crosses halfcourt.

If the Warriors can keep it close through three quarters, Curry could go nuclear and steal games from the Thunder. Especially in front of Golden State's home crowd. Over the last two decades, you could argue that the NBA's best two homecourt advantages and playoff atmospheres would be featured in this series.

But that's really it. Curry is still great enough to steal a game or two, but the rest of the Warriors are filled with veterans and bubble NBA players. It's one thing to win a couple of high-leverage games. It's another to do it for two weeks against the Thunder. Maybe Golden State can turn the clock back and give OKC a scare. Which is really their best-case scenario at this point.

Final verdict

Nov 11, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) defends a drive by Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren (7) during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Regardless of who advances, the Thunder should be favored to win the playoff series. Neither opponent should push it beyond five games. OKC has shown to take care of business in Round 1. One of their best superpowers is seldom dropping games to inferior opponents.

That said, the Warriors would be the easier matchup. There's a 27-game difference between their regular-season records for a reason. You gotta respect what Golden State has built over the last decade, but it's OKC's turn to be the NBA's villain due to their dominance. This would be a poetic Round 1 matchup because of that and their history with each other.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander always circles his matchups against the Warriors. He sees Curry as his all-time colleague. Being able to one-up him in a playoff series — even at this stage of his career — would be the type of accomplishment he'd get up for. Maybe the reigning MVP can finally avoid any Round 1 hiccups because of it.

This article originally appeared on OKC Thunder Wire: Should OKC Thunder root for Suns or Warriors to capture 8th seed?