Sixers vs. Celtics Round 1 deep dive: numbers, X-Factors, prediction

Nov 11, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey (0) talks with guard VJ Edgecombe (77) during the third quarter against the Boston Celtics at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The Celtics are a strong defensive team. There is no denying that as they ranked fourth in the league in defensive rating, but they do struggle with quicker guards who are dynamic off the dribble and can attack in a number of different ways. In four games against the Celtics, Maxey averaged 30.0 points, 8.8 assists, and 4.5 rebounds while shooting 41.8% from the floor and 51.4% from deep. Of course, his finger could play a factor in his 3-point shooting as it continues to bother him a bit, but his quickness and ability to get to the rim will be something that Boston could struggle with.

Then, there's Edgecombe, who made his NBA debut against these Celtics at the TD Garden way back on Oct. 22. He had 34 points that night as he put the city of Boston and the league on notice that he was going to be a problem. The No. 3 pick averaged 20.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.4 assists while shooting 43.5% from the floor and 41.2% from deep in the four games between these teams. One has to believe Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla is going to come up with some type of game plan that will slow at least one of them down, but the Sixers will continue to rely on their guards to carry the offense.

3-pointers galore

Oct 31, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Boston Celtics guard Derrick White (9) shoots the ball against Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey (0) in the second quarter at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Anybody who's watched the Celtics over the years under Mazzulla know they rely heavily on the 3-point shot. Boston ranked 8th in the league in 3-point percentage at 36.7% per night while taking 42.1 per game which ranks 4th in the league. Everybody on Boston, outside of big man Neemias Queta, can knock down a 3-pointer, which is what makes the Celtics so dangerous. Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Tatum, Derrick White, and anybody else they will call upon will put pressure on the Sixers with the 3-point looks. When considering Philadelphia loves to overhelp on drivers, it will be imperative for the rotations to be on point and to make sure the Sixers contest on Boston's 3-point looks. Philadelphia ranks 23rd in 3-point shooting. This cannot turn into a 3-point contest.

Rebounding battle

Oct 31, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Boston Celtics center Neemias Queta (88) jumps for a rebound with forward Jaylen Brown (7) and guard Derrick White (9) against Philadelphia 76ers forward Jabari Walker (33) in the first quarter at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Rebounding has been a bit of a problem for the Sixers on the season as they ranked 17th in rebounding at 43.6 per game while the Celtics ranked 3rd in rebounding at 46.4 per game. The Celtics also ranked 7th in offensive rebounding at 12.5 per game, and fifth in offensive rebounding percentage per StatMuse, as they have a lot of players who will attack the glass and give Boston extra possessions out on the floor. The Sixers struggle on the defensive glass and that can be something that swings things in Boston's favor.

Philadelphia will certainly employ Andre Drummond at the big man spot to help fix this issue, but the Sixers will need Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., and Paul George to all attack the glass and help in this area. The Celtics are a relentless bunch and the extra possessions will prove to be something that will decide each game in this series.

Most important matchup: Paul George vs. Jayson Tatum

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - DECEMBER 25: Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics drives to the basket against Paul George #8 of the Philadelphia 76ers during the fourth quarter at the the TD Garden on December 25, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images)

As mentioned, neither George nor Tatum played in any of the four matchups in the regular season, and whatever impact each player can have on this series will be a big deciding factor for each team. The lineups with George have been a mixed bag for Philadelphia. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Sixers were only plus-3.0 in 2,347 possessions as the offense has been a bit clunky at times, but the defense has been good with George on the floor as Philadelphia is in the 74th percentile at 113.1 points given up per 100 possessions with him on the floor.

As for Tatum, Cleaning the Glass has the Celtics at plus-10.8 points in 1,052 possessions with him on the floor in the 16 games he's played. Boston is scoring 122.4 points per 100 possessions and giving up 111.6 in those instances. The George and Tatum matchup will be the big one either team in this series as the Sixers and Celtics look to get the most out of their respective star wing players.

X-Factor: Bench units

Mar 1, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics guard Payton Pritchard (11) drives to the basket during the second half against the Philadelphia 76ers at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

The Celtics have some real depth they can turn to off their bench led by Payton Pritchard who averaged 17.2 points and shot 42.9% from deep in 29 games off the bench after beginning the season as a starter. Jordan Walsh has stepped up as one of Boston's perimeter defenders while guys like rookie Hugo Gonzalez, Nikola Vucevic, and Baylor Scheierman will all step in and produce when called upon. Boston ranked 16th in the league in bench scoring at 36.8 per game per StatMuse.

Therefore, the Sixers will need Quentin Grimes, Drummond, Justin Edwards, and Dominick Barlow to step in and give Philadelphia some production on both ends of the floor. Grimes is a bit streaky, but when he is able to give the Sixers that type of explosive scoring, then it changes things for Philadelphia on the offensive end of the floor. One has to believe Edwards will get a look at some point in this series due to his ability to shoot the ball and give the Sixers a little bit of everything.

Series prediction

Mar 1, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jaylen Brown (7) drives to the basket during the second half against the Philadelphia 76ers at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

The Sixers are riding the momentum of a play-in tournament win over the Orlando Magic, but the Celtics are probably the worst matchup for them. Boston does everything well that Philadelphia struggles with, and with Embiid likely out for this whole series, it doesn't bode well for the Sixers. The play of the supporting cast combined with what Jaylen Brown and Tatum can do when they get going on the offensive end is not great. The play of Maxey and Edgecombe will keep the Sixers in games, but it won't be enough.

Prediction: Celtics in 5

This article originally appeared on Sixers Wire: Sixers vs. Celtics Round 1 deep dive: numbers, X-Factors, prediction