Spurs vs Timberwolves best props for Friday: Trade Game 3 on Kalshi

Despite that shared early momentum, San Antonio has firmly seized control of this series. The teams split the first two games, with the Spurs outscoring Minnesota 235-199 overall. Victor Wembanyama has been a terror on defense with 14 blocks and 30 rebounds so far in the series. For the Timberwolves, who remain without Donte DiVincenzo due to a season-ending Achilles injury, guard Anthony Edwards must ignite the offense to shift the momentum and get his team back in the fight.

Spurs vs Timberwolves best props for Friday

Based on data-driven win probabilities, the Spurs enter Game 3 as clear favorites. The numbers give San Antonio a commanding 64% chance of securing a victory on the road. Despite playing on their home court at the Target Center, the Timberwolves face an uphill battle. They hold a 36% probability of defending their floor. This significant gap highlights the strong confidence the data has in San Antonio maintaining control of the series.

Timberwolves vs Spurs stats breakdown

San Antonio has leveraged its momentum into significant statistical advantages. Offensively, the Spurs are generating 117.5 points and 26.5 assists per game through the first tow matchups of this series, easily outpacing Minnesota and their 99.5 points and 19.5 assists. Shooting efficiency highlights the gap even more. San Antonio is hitting 47% from the field and an elite 80% from the foul line, leaving the Timberwolves struggling at 43% overall and a dismal 54% on free throws.

On defense, San Antonio controls the glass with 51 rebounds per game compared to 44.5 for Minnesota. The most glaring mismatch is rim protection. The Spurs average an incredible 11.5 blocks per game to just 3.5 for the Timberwolves.

This sets up the defining matchup of the series: Wembanyama against the interior duo of Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle. Wembanyama has been a dominant force on the defensive end, averaging 15 rebounds and 7 blocks per game in the series. To counter this, Minnesota desperately needs Edwards, who is averaging an unusually quiet 15 points per game so far, to break through the perimeter defense and match the production of Stephon Castle. The young guard currently leads San Antonio with 19 points per contest.

Timberwolves vs Spurs injury report for Game 3

Minnesota Timberwolves:

• Donte DiVincenzo (G): Out for Season (Leg/Achilles)
• Ayo Dosunmu (G): Day-To-Day (Heel) - Did not return to Game 2

San Antonio Spurs:

• David Jones Garcia (G): Out for Season (Ankle)

Minnesota enters Game 3 with significant backcourt concerns. Losing DiVincenzo to a season-ending Achilles tear strips the team of crucial perimeter shooting and defense, placing a massive burden on Edwards. To make matters worse, the day-to-day status of Ayo Dosunmu after he exited Game 2 with a heel injury severely threatens their guard depth against a fast-paced San Antonio squad. On the other side, the Spurs head into this matchup with a clean bill of health regarding their core playoff rotation.

Best player props for Spurs vs Timberwolves on Friday

1. Victor Wembanyama: 5+ Blocks (46% on Kalshi)

Wembanyama has been a defensive nightmare in this series, racking up 14 blocks in just two games, an average of 7 per contest. His season-long playoff average of 5 blocks per game already places him well above this line, and the matchup against Minnesota only amplifies his shot-blocking upside. The Timberwolves are attempting 61.0 two-point shots per game in this series and shooting just 47% from inside the arc, meaning there are plenty of opportunities for Wembanyama to continue wreaking havoc at the rim. With Minnesota likely to attack the paint even more aggressively out of desperation in a must-win game, this prop looks like a lock.

2. Stephon Castle: 15+ Points (59% on Kalshi)

Castle has been the leading scorer for San Antonio in this series, averaging 19 points per game on an efficient 56% shooting from the field while knocking down 50% of his threes. He is also getting to the free throw line at a prolific rate, going 15-for-17 (88%) from the charity stripe across two games. His season-long playoff numbers back this up as well: 19.6 points per game with a 60.4% true shooting percentage and a team-high 27.2% usage rate. Against a Minnesota backcourt that is now missing DiVincenzo entirely and may be without Dosunmu, Castle should continue to feast on the depleted perimeter defense of the Timberwolves.

3. Anthony Edwards: 20+ Points (70% on Kalshi)

Edwards has been uncharacteristically quiet in this series, averaging just 15 points per game despite carrying a 28.7% usage rate, the highest on the Timberwolves. Notably, his efficiency has not been the issue. He is shooting 50% from the field and 38% from three in the series, but his shot volume has dipped to just 13 attempts per game compared to his season-long playoff average of 15.5. In a must-win Game 3 at home with the Target Center crowd behind him, Edwards will need to be far more aggressive. With DiVincenzo already out and Dosunmu potentially sidelined, even more offensive responsibility falls on his shoulders. His season-long playoff numbers of 17.3 points per game on a 50.4% true shooting percentage suggest the production is there when the volume increases. Expect Edwards to attack relentlessly in a desperate effort to keep Minnesota's season alive.

Spurs vs Timberwolves prediction for Game 3

Both teams entered this series riding the highs of their previous matchups. Minnesota brought a balanced performance into the second round after a 110-98 victory over Denver, led by 32 points from McDaniels. At the same time, San Antonio carried a strong offensive showing into the series following a decisive 114-93 win against Portland, fueled by Fox and his 28 points.

However, as this Western Conference Semifinal has unfolded, the momentum of San Antonio has proven far more overpowering. The statistical disparities between the two squads are simply too vast for Minnesota to easily overcome, even with the benefit of the Target Center crowd. The Spurs are locking down the offense of the Timberwolves, holding them to just 43% shooting from the field while dominating the glass with 51.0 rebounds per game. In addition, the rim protection of San Antonio, averaging 11.5 blocks per game compared to just 3.5 for Minnesota, has completely neutralized the interior attack.

Making matters even worse for Minnesota is the dire state of their backcourt. Playing without DiVincenzo already stripped the team of vital spacing and perimeter defense. Now, with Dosunmu designated as day-to-day after suffering a Game 2 heel injury, Minnesota lacks the necessary guard depth to keep pace with a San Antonio squad generating 117.5 points and 26.5 assists per game.

Expect Edwards to put up a valiant fight to keep Minnesota competitive early, but the superior offensive execution and elite defense of San Antonio will ultimately wear the home team down. Fox and Castle should continue to exploit the depleted perimeter rotation of the Timberwolves, while the imposing frontcourt of San Antonio locks down the paint to take a commanding series lead.

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs