Spurs vs. Timberwolves Game 4 Best Bets Featuring Victor Wembanyama, More

Odds: +220 on FanDuel Sportsbook

To label this semifinal-round series an unpredictable one thus far would be an understatement, considering how matters have unfolded in each of the first three installments.

Minnesota’s narrow Game 1, 104-102 upset at Frost Bank Center featured an inspired appearance from Edwards, who’d missed the final two games of his team’s first-round victory over the Denver Nuggets with a knee injury. The Spurs then were out to atone for their stumble in Game 2, jumping out to a 59-35 halftime lead on their way to a 133-95 thumping.

The T-Wolves had hopes of a turnaround as the series shifted to Target Center, but San Antonio toughed out a 115-108 victory in a Game 3 battle that was dead even at 51-51 at intermission. Edwards put together his best effort yet of the postseason, but it was countered by Wembanyama’s fifth straight double-double and third consecutive 15-rebound effort.

Factoring out what was seemingly an outlier of a Game 2 where the Spurs were playing with a chip on their shoulder in front of the home crowd, the Timberwolves have proven capable of keeping things competitive against the Spurs or outright overcoming their formidable Western Conference rival.

That also certainly proved true in the regular season, when Minnesota took two of three meetings from San Antonio by margins of 13 and one point while dropping their only game against the Spurs by just three points.

Per Team Rankings, the Timberwolves have a +4.2-point average scoring margin at home and the Spurs have a +7.9-point figure on the road since the start of the regular season. That’s essentially a strength vs. strength matchup by the numbers when evaluating the spread, which is set at Spurs -4.5.

Given that Edwards is off the injury report altogether going into Game 4 and is coming off a stellar performance, handing Minnesota another four points to work with via FanDuel’s Alt. Spread feature to push their line to +8.5 is a very viable first leg of our parlay.

Our second leg focuses on the visitors’ most dynamic offensive weapon, that being the incomparable Wemby. As alluded to earlier, the big man has been on quite the postseason tear, and per RotoWire, he checks into Sunday having averaged 38.0 points + rebounds across 34.3 minutes per game in the first three contests of the series while shooting a crisp 50%.

During the regular season, Wembanyama played in two of the three meetings against the Timberwolves and performed brilliantly, putting up 42.0 points + rebounds across 29.0 minutes per game while shooting 48.8%, including 39.9% from three-point range.

Wembanyama has put up double-digit rebounds an astounding 47 times since the start of the regular season, and he’s recorded at least eight boards in 62 instances overall. Meanwhile, the 2023 first overall pick has provided at least 15 points on 62 occasions as well, giving him an excellent floor any time he takes the court.

Wemby is 4-1 to the Over on an Alt. Points + Rebounds total of 32.5 against the Timberwolves since the start of the regular season, and per NBA.com, he’s pulling down 66.7% of his 17.1 rebounding chances per game this postseason. Therefore, that 32.5 number is one we feel comfortable with as our second leg.

For our third and final leg, we’ll turn to the other side and focus on Edwards, who should once again take center stage for the hosts.

After still seemingly being hampered by his knee issues in the first two games of the series, Edwards looked like himself again in Game 3. The 2020 first overall pick looked every bit the part, providing 32 points, 14 rebounds, six assists and one block over 41 minutes while navigating five fouls.

The performance was Edwards’ best since Game 2 of the first-round series against the Nuggets prior to his injury, when he’d supplied 42 points + rebounds + assists across 40 minutes. It also was right in line with his elite body of work against San Antonio in the regular season. Per RotoWire, Edwards averaged 43.7 points + rebounds + assists across 38.0 minutes per game vs. the Spurs, shooting 58.3% shooting, including 51.9% from behind the arc, in the process.

When removing the first two games of the current series due to Edwards’ physical limitations, the star guard has a 3-1 record to the Over on an Alt. total of 35.5 points + rebounds + assists against San Antonio since the start of the regular season. That includes his memorable 55-point effort over 40 minutes at Frost Bank Center on Jan. 17.

With Minnesota feeling no shortage of urgency to travel back to Texas with the security of a 2-2 series tie, Edwards, who put up as many shots in Game 3, 26, as he did in the first two games of the series combined, should once again boast massive usage. As such, banking on him to cross the 35.5 threshold is a solid way to close out our parlay.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com