Spurs vs. Timberwolves: Why the Thunder should be rooting for Minnesota -- and a Game 7

But as he showed again in Game 5 on Tuesday, when he put up 27 points, 17 rebounds, five assists and three blocks to lead the Spurs to victory, Wembanyama is a game-breaker on both ends of the floor. "I mean, tonight, some of the stuff Wemby was doing, you don't really have an answer for it," Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards said.

In nine games this postseason, Wembanyama is averaging 20.4 points, 11.2 rebounds and 4.2 blocks on 53.8/35.9/85.7 shooting splits. The Spurs have a plus-19.4 net rating in 260 minutes with him on the floor and a plus-seven net rating in 220 minutes without him.

As expected, opponents have been significantly less efficient with Wembanyama on the floor and grab far fewer offensive rebounds. Here's a look at the overall splits, per databallr, with low-leverage minutes removed:

The Thunder have the best offensive rating of any team in the playoffs (126.3) and the second-best true shooting percentage (62.7%). On the rare occasions when they do miss, they often get the ball back. They're fifth in the playoffs in offensive rebounding rate (33.3%) and third in second-chance points per game (16.5) -- something they did not excel at during the regular season, in part due to Isaiah Hartenstein's injury problems.

While the Timberwolves have some strong defenders themselves, no one in the league changes the game on that end of the floor as much as Wembanyama. Opponents are less efficient because he changes the geography of the floor. Rim attempts go down and are significantly less efficient, and 3-point rates go up.

That's bad news for a team like the Thunder, who rely on highly efficient scoring inside the arc and can be extremely streaky from the perimeter. Here, again are the splits, per databallr, with low-leverage minutes removed:

The Thunder's rim frequency is already very low; just 31.4% of their attempts in the playoffs have come at the rim, which ranks 14th out of 16 teams. However, they are extremely efficient when they get there. They're shooting 75.6% at the rim and scoring 1.391 points per possession, per Synergy Sports, both of which rank first among all playoff teams. Additionally, they're shooting 50.4% on non-restricted area paint attempts. There's no chance they finish that well in the paint with Wembanyama around.

Additionally, let's take a look at the Thunder's 3-point shooting. We've already established that, like every other team, they'll have to shoot more 3s when Wembanyama is on the court. So far, the Thunder have shot the ball extremely well this postseason: 38.4% on 36.5 attempts per game, marks that rank third and fifth, respectively. This comes after they shot 36.5% on 37.9 attempts per game in the regular season, finishing ninth and 13th, respectively.

The Thunder are a good shooting team, but they can be streaky. Here's a look at their month-by-month splits during the regular season:

In recent years, we've seen the Thunder go ice cold for entire playoff series. They got bounced in the second round by the Dallas Mavericks in 2024 because they shot 33.5% from 3-point range. Even last year, en route to their championship, they shot 31.3% in the first round against the Memphis Grizzlies and 32.3% against the Denver Nuggets.

The same could happen against either opponent in the Western Conference finals, but we know Wembanyama's presence will force them to take more 3s.

Previous success against Minnesota, struggles with San Antonio

In the 2025 Western Conference finals, the Thunder beat the Timberwolves in five games. Their four victories came by the following margins: 26 points, 15 points, two points and 30 points. While the two teams are not identical this season, almost every key player remains. If anything, the Wolves are worse due to Nickeil Alexander-Walker's departure in free agency, Donte DiVincenzo's Achilles tear and Anthony Edwards' knee issues.

The Thunder would be extremely confident heading into a rematch with a lesser version of a team they crushed a year ago.

The same would not be true against a Spurs team that went 4-1 against the Thunder this season, including the NBA Cup semifinal, and won three of those games by double digits. That's not to say the Thunder would be afraid -- they're the reigning champs and their lone win in the regular-season series came by 21 points -- but the Spurs had significant success against them during the regular season.

More rest vs. less healthy team

The Thunder have played only eight games in the postseason, the fewest of any team still alive, and last suited up on May 11. The Spurs have played 10 games and the Timberwolves have played 11 games, with at least one more to come for both on May 15. OKC is already at a rest advantage that could become significantly greater.

Let's imagine a scenario in which the Timberwolves come back and defeat the Spurs in seven games. They'll have played 13 games -- five more than the Thunder, which is a monumental difference given the intensity and physicality in the postseason -- and will only get two days off between Game 7 on May 17 and Game 1 of the Western Conference finals on May 20. The Thunder, meanwhile, will have been resting for eight days.

That would be a big checkmark in the Thunder's favor even if both teams were healthy, which they're not. Jalen Williams hasn't played since April 22 due to a hamstring strain, and while the Thunder haven't given a timeline for his return, he should be back at some point in the WCF, possibly by Game 1, which would be nearly a month removed from his injury. On the other side, the Timberwolves are without Donte DiVincenzo, who tore his Achilles tendon in the first round, and both Anthony Edwards (knee) and Ayo Dosunmu (calf) are playing through injury. If the Timberwolves advance, it would be after two more grueling games for both Edwards and Dosunmu, who would then have very little turnaround time before playing the Thunder.

On the other hand, if the Spurs take care of business in Game 6 on May 15, they'll have played 11 games -- more than the Thunder, but not as big a difference -- and will get four full days off before Game 1 of the WCF on May 20. Again, fewer than the Thunder have gotten, but a sizeable amount of time to rest, recover and prepare. Plus, the Spurs don't have any significant injury issues.

All told, it's easy to see why the Thunder will be rooting for the Timberwolves to pull off the upset.