Stanley Cup contender flaws: Biggest issues for the NHL's top playoff teams

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Carolina Hurricanes Seed: Metro No. 1

Stop me if you've heard this before: Carolina could be undone this postseason by faulty goaltending and an inability to produce offense at critical times.

The Canes have been the model of consistency for more than half a decade. Under head coach Rod Brind'Amour, Carolina has won at least one playoff series every year. There are fan bases that would give anything for that. (See Buffalo.)

However, the Canes have failed to make a Stanley Cup Final because, consistently, their goal scoring gets colder as the weather gets warmer. This season, the Canes have scored more goals than they have in any regular season in their history, but their finishing ability ranks near the bottom of the league. The Canes' pace of play ranks third in the NHL, with the expected goal share ranking first, according to Betalytics.

Given that pace of play, they'll likely need to average more than three goals per game, while giving up less than 2.5. Teams with the most success score ~0.6 more goals per game than they give up. The Canes' regular-season mark hovers in that area, which is a positive sign over last season's performance. If they can sort out their finishing woes and this goal differential holds, they have a better chance to reach the conference finals and beyond.

Pittsburgh Penguins Seed: Metro No. 2

Hands up if you thought the Penguins were going to the playoffs this year. No one? Thought so. The Penguins were penciled in for the draft lottery this season -- not for second in the Metro Division. But this season has seen players overperforming their previous outputs and Hall of Famers performing at levels that are closer to their primes than the back nine of their careers.

Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin? Over a point-per-game pace. Erik Karlsson, nearly 0.9 points per game. Kris Letang, playing passable defense and a key member of a top-10 penalty kill unit. The Penguins are one of the best offensive teams in the NHL, creating scoring chances throughout their lineup and capitalizing on them.

However, the Penguins' defensive play is not strong. Given that their first-round opponent is cross-state rival Philadelphia -- which has been an excellent defensive team down the stretch -- and their second-round opponent would likely be Carolina, which is the most overwhelming shot-volume team -- that could be problematic.

The ability to lock it down in the playoffs has been critical to success. Philly can do it, and now it has young offensive legs to take advantage of scoring opportunities. The Penguins might struggle to create against the Flyers, and might not have the defensive capability in a tight, low-scoring series. Should they beat Philly, the Canes' ability to overwhelm opponents with their shot volume might be too much for an aging defense core that is not particularly staunch.

Philadelphia Flyers Seed: Metro No. 3

The Flyers skyrocketed up the standings since the NHL's return from the Olympics on the back of some excellent defensive play. An 18-6-1 record in their past 25 games makes them one of the top teams in the league heading into the playoffs.

Philly is dedicated to strong defense, preventing scoring chances and being a general nightmare to play against. The team lacked the ability to score, but the addition of Porter Martone after he signed on March 29 has changed things. He has come in on the top line, found chemistry, driven offense and allowed everyone else to slot into positions that are better suited to their capabilities. Defense wins championships, and if the Flyers continue to play staunch defensive hockey, and get offensive contributions from their young players, they can make a run.

The biggest roadblock is not the lack of offense anymore. Playoff success requires elite special teams. The Flyers' special teams are the worst of the playoff field. Their power play finished dead last in the entire league, at 15.7%, and their penalty kill ranked in the bottom 10, at 77.6%. Underperforming on either of those in the playoffs has sunk teams before; it would be unheard of for a team to make a run with both units struggling.

The Flyers are good enough to win their series against the Penguins, but without improved special teams, they will find themselves in trouble.

Buffalo Sabres Seed: Atlantic No. 1

There is no team buoyed by vibes more than the Sabres -- and the vibes have not been this high in Buffalo for nearly 20 years.

Outside of vibes, the Sabres' journey back to the playoffs has been due to one of the luckiest runs in years: far better goaltending than expected, more short-handed goals than all but two teams, and overperforming on both sides of the expected goals ledger. That is the type of luck that can power a team to a Stanley Cup win.

Make no mistake, the Sabres are very much the Cinderella of the NHL this year. They are the story everyone loves, the team many outside fans root for, the improbable run to overcome tremendous mental obstacles, and the team that overperforms any expectations. Some picked the Sabres to make the playoffs; they didn't pick them to win the division or make a Cup run.

But the thing about Cinderella is, the clock always strikes midnight. Can the Sabres stave off a goaltending fall back to Earth, a power play that does not produce, or finishing that dries up when scoring chances are more difficult to come by? If they can, the glass slipper might fit. But the moment things start to falter, it will likely be the end of one of the most magical seasons in Sabres history.

Tampa Bay Lightning Seed: Atlantic No. 2

The Lightning are one the most well-coached teams in the NHL and arguably the best-coached team over the past decade. Year after year, we await the fall of the Lightning -- and Jon Cooper keeps laughing at us. They most certainly will not be outcoached this spring.

However, the veteran-laden Lightning are another year older, and battling some significant injuries. Given the younger teams they are likely to face during their playoff run (Buffalo, Montreal, Ottawa), that attrition is most likely to be their undoing.

Let's face it: Andrei Vasilevskiy is once again among the Vezina Trophy contenders this season, so he is unlikely to be outplayed by any of the goaltenders in the Atlantic Division outside of potentially Jeremy Swayman. Nikita Kucherov is in Hart Trophy form, and turns up the nasty in the playoffs. He's unlikely to be outplayed by anyone in the Eastern Conference, period.

There is no playoff team in the East that comes close to Tampa Bay's winning résumé. The Lightning are unlikely to be outfoxed by a younger, inexperienced team. But Victor Hedman, Brandon Hagel and Darren Raddysh are key players who have been battling injuries of various severity. They are critical components of success for Tampa Bay, and this team does not have the same depth it did years ago. The Lightning cannot afford to be without those players. If they are, that may be too much even for the elite talent and coaching to overcome.

Montreal Canadiens Seed: Atlantic No. 3

There is nothing like a Saturday night playoff game in Montreal. There is no atmosphere that measures up to the one created in Montreal when the Canadiens are in the playoffs. Whether the Habs are built for playoff success is another conversation entirely.

If I had a dollar for every time I've heard someone say you have to be big to succeed in the playoffs, I would own an NHL team. To some degree, that is true. Many of hockey's smaller players get pushed out in the playoffs when the games get meaner. And given that two of Montreal's brightest stars are very small by any NHL average, that may pose a problem.

Cole Caufield reached the 50-goal mark this season and scored around 18 goals above expected. Although it is unwise to doubt players of that skill level, it would not be the first time a player who overperformed their metrics in the regular season fell back to Earth in the playoffs.

Lane Hutson is a Norris Trophy contender after winning the Calder last season, but we have yet to see how he fares when every forechecker is finishing their check and trying to run him through the boards into the third row. Will he still have the confidence to make the plays he does? Can he withstand or escape the physical nature that comes with heavy minutes in the NHL playoffs? I don't doubt that he is capable of it -- but that hypothesis has not been tested.

Simply put: The Canadiens will go as far as their young superstars can take them.

Ottawa Senators Seed: Wild card No. 2

In keeping with a theme you're seeing with a lot of these teams, we're focusing on the goal-suppression department here. And there is no club that is made or undone by its goaltending more than the Senators.

The Senators were the best defensive team in the NHL this season. They limited scoring chances and suffocated everyone's ability to create offense. Allowing 25 shots on their goal was considered a bad game. That is the type of hockey that wins in the playoffs. Ottawa is the most dangerous team this spring because of its ability to defend. There is no team in the East that can lock it down the way the Sens can.

But locking it down means nothing if a meatball is going in from 60 feet. When the Sens get anything close to league-average goaltending, they win games. They can afford slightly below average because they give up such little quality -- the best team by expected goals against, according to Betalytics, at 2.69 per game in all situations. Conversely, they average 3.32 goals for per game, a differential that begets success.

The Senators are dangerous because of how they play, and if their run is going to end prematurely, it will likely be because their goaltending let them down. If Linus Ullmark catches lightning in a bottle, Ottawa has the "it" factor to make a deep run this spring.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Colorado Avalanche Seed: Central No. 1

The Avalanche have felt like the Stanley Cup favorites all season long, but they haven't been fantastic since the turn of the calendar. The Avs play Dallas very well and lose sometimes, and we know Mikko Rantanen is capable of ending things for his former team on his own. Knowing you can play well and still lose can play with your mind.

Like several other teams this season, the goaltending is a question mark. However, with a Mackenzie Blackwood-Scott Wedgewood tandem that has proved to be good enough all season, that feels like a less-than-fatal flaw.

However, Colorado's defensive depth is concerning, which is why Cale Makar's status looms like a dark cloud. The Avalanche cannot get through the gauntlet of the Central Division without him.

Let's assume he is healthy -- or healthy enough to go. Nick Blankenburg has struggled in the role of seventh defenseman, and the Avalanche do not have an eighth defenseman who has been shown to be reliable this season. Given that teams usually need eight or nine blueliners in rotation en route to winning the Stanley Cup, this feels like a major issue.

The Avs' top six on D is among the NHL's best, but the likelihood Colorado wins the Stanley Cup without the need to use some defensive depth feels unlikely. The Central Division is physically punishing, and there is every reason to believe the playoffs will be no different. If the Avs end up having to play Blankenburg and/or another defenseman for more than a week because one of their top six is lost to injury, it could be the difference.

Dallas Stars Seed: Central No. 2

Without a doubt, the Stars are going to play in the toughest series of the first round, against the Wild. There are Norris Trophy-level defensemen on both teams. Both teams turn up the nasty dial to 11 when the playoffs hit, too.

To win, the Stars need Miro Heiskanen to not only be healthy but be at his absolute best. If he cannot play in the first round, that may swing the pendulum in favor of the Wild.

Thomas Harley has capably filled in for Heiskanen throughout the season, but depth is everything in a tight playoff series. Heiskanen is likely to play upward of 25 minutes per game against Wild superstar Kirill Kaprizov. Having the ability to play Harley against Matt Boldy balances out Dallas' defense core, which is not deep.

If the Stars have to play the struggling Tyler Myers in a matchup role, that is unlikely to go well against two of the best offensive talents in the league. Similar to Colorado, Dallas' defensive depth is severely lacking, and if Heiskanen cannot play heavy matchup minutes, the Stars are in deep trouble.

Minnesota Wild Seed: Central No. 3

The Wild might go out in the first round. But they also might make the conference finals. The Central Division is a nightmare, and similar to the Avs and Stars, one of the major fatal flaws in the Wild's path is the playoff format.

Their superstars -- Kirill Kaprizov and Quinn Hughes -- will be the best players on the ice in their series against Dallas. They have the best defensive core in the Central, with the depth to withstand a couple of injuries, something neither Colorado nor Dallas has. There is also an argument that the Wild have the best goaltending tandem in the West in Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt, which can be a great equalizer in the playoffs.

Outside of that, the Wild have a clear weakness up the middle. Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Hartman and Danila Yurov do not stack up well against their counterparts in Colorado (Nathan MacKinnon, Brock Nelson, Nazem Kadri) or Dallas (Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene).

Eriksson Ek is a fantastic shutdown forward, Hartman has produced in line with a midtier second-line center since the Olympic break, and Yurov is a developing third-line center. But it is not a stretch to say that the Wild's best center would play the third-line center role for their opponents.

And if the Wild get out of the Central, they are likely to meet Edmonton or Vegas, where Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Jack Eichel and Tomas Hertl await. Successful playoff teams are deep at center. The Wild are not, and that could be their undoing.

Utah Mammoth Seed: Wild card No. 1

The Mammoth have the luxury of playing against the Pacific Division champ, which will be either the Golden Knights or the Oilers. Based on the regular season, the Mammoth will be on a level playing field with their opponents. Utah's best players are young and entering their first playoff run, and there is surely a lot of learning experience to be gained against seasoned teams like Vegas and Edmonton.

But there are two things that may undo Utah outside of lack of experience.

Utah's stars are small compared with players in the bigger, heavier Western Conference. Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller and Dylan Guenther each weigh less than 195 pounds, which is more than 10 pounds lighter than their star counterparts on other teams. The playoffs are a different, physical beast, and it is fair to wonder if Utah's young guns will be able to withstand that style of play until they prove that they can.

More importantly, Utah's forward depth is where the falloff happens. Granted, the Oilers' depth isn't great either, but Utah doesn't have Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl to equalize that shortcoming. The team has a distinct need for another middle-six forward, which would allow for the likes of Michael Carcone and Lawson Crouse to provide high-end depth options instead of slotting in top offensive roles. The falloff from the elite players to the depth is stark, and it may be too much to overcome against the West's elite teams.

Vegas Golden Knights Seed: Pacific No. 1

The same thing that was nearly their undoing in the regular season could come back to haunt the Golden Knights in the playoffs: the goaltending.

Putrid is probably a kind description of the quality of netminding received this season relative to expectation. Not a single goaltender in the organization has a positive goals saved above expected -- meaning not a single goalie has performed to a level they should reasonably be expected to perform. Making matters worse, rotational starters Adin Hill and Carter Hart have been the two worst goalies in the organization by that metric this season, with Akira Schmid being the top performer.

You cannot win a Stanley Cup with a team save percentage below .880. The Oilers can tell that story from the past two seasons, and Edmonton at least has the superstars to outscore poor goaltending on most evenings.

Defensively, Vegas is one of the best teams in the NHL. Defense wins in the NHL, and Vegas' defensive system has been suffocating all season -- only Ottawa was better. So to be clear: The Golden Knights don't need their goaltending to be spectacular. If they can get .900 goaltending from their goalies throughout the playoffs, they have the makeup of a team that can win. But with the level of current goaltending, they'll be lucky to get out of the first round.

Edmonton Oilers Seed: TBD

The back-to-back Stanley Cup runners-up are in a different situation this year. Their goaltending is somehow worse.

They are also potentially without one of the best playoff performers of the modern era in Leon Draisaitl. Without Draisaitl, the Oilers are probably toast. He returned to practice this week, but his playoff status remains unclear.

Connor McDavid is capable of carrying them through a round or two, but the Oilers are unlikely to beat a team from the Central Division without Draisaitl. It is fortunate that for the first two rounds they will stay in the "pillow fight" that is the Pacific Division, as McDavid called it, and give Draisaitl time to get back in the mix.

The Oilers have been able to escape subpar playoff goaltending for a couple of years, largely on the backs of their top players. In the past, the stars have played well enough for the goaltending to regain confidence and round into form. When you score more than 3.5 goals per game and your power play clicks at around 27.5%, you can afford to play in more high-scoring affairs.

The Oilers need two things: their perennial playoff performer Draisaitl to return in elite form -- and their goaltending to not let in back breakers. They have the team to make a run if they can get those two things. Without both, they are in a lot of trouble.

The omissions

You may have noticed there are three teams missing from the above list of contenders, as they are a bit behind when it comes to their legit Cup chances.

The Los Angeles Kings have fewer regulation wins than the New York Rangers and Toronto Maple Leafs, who have some of the best draft lottery odds in the league. Them making the playoffs is a product of a weak Western Conference outside of the top four Central Division teams.

Ditto for the Anaheim Ducks, who admittedly are extremely fun and should be a perennial playoff team moving forward given their young talent. The Ducks aren't ready to seriously contend yet. Their loosey-goosey play style is entertaining, but their special teams, defensive play and play control are not up to the caliber of other playoff teams. They may win a round because of the weakness of their division, but they are a year or two from Cup contender status.

Finally, the Boston Bruins have overperformed the expected goals for and against by significant margins this season. Their finishing is the best in the NHL, and they have been the recipient of Vezina Trophy-caliber goaltending from Jeremy Swayman. Though that is enough to win a round, the underlying metrics tell a completely different story: a team that has been extraordinarily lucky for far too long.