Stanley Cup Playoffs 2026: Picks, predictions for every first-round series, including Lightning vs. Canadiens

Hurricanes vs. Senators

Series odds: Hurricanes -172, Senators +142 (via FanDuel)

Nivison: These teams were separated by 10 wins and 16 points in the standings, but don't be fooled. The Hurricanes will have their hands full in this first-round series against the second wild card team. Carolina is deep, and as is typically the case, it has an elite five-on-five profile. That said, the Hurricanes rely on shot volume with a slew of attempts coming from the outside. That may not be a recipe for success against the Senators, one of the best defensive teams in the NHL.

Only the Vegas Golden Knights surrender expected goals at a lower rate than the Senators, per Natural Stat Trick, and that makes sense given the talent on the blue line. Jake Sanderson -- now a gold medalist -- is a bona fide No. 1 option. Thomas Chabot brings some offense, Artem Zub gives the Sens a shutdown option and Jordan Spence has brought a terrific two-way game to Ottawa. The Canes do have some offensive firepower thanks to Seth Jarvis (32 goals), Andrei Svechnikov (31 goals) and Sebastian Aho (80 points). The issue is whether the Hurricanes have enough offensive game-breakers to score consistently against Ottawa -- provided the goaltending holds up. Pick -- Senators def. Hurricanes 4-2

Baumgartner: The Eastern Conference champion Carolina Hurricanes will be favored here, but there's plenty of star power on both sides of the ice. Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson can light the lamp -- both scoring 30 goals this season for the Senators -- but my eyes are on captain Brady Tkachuk, who is looking to join his brother, Matthew, in winning the Stanley Cup. For Carolina, forwards like Seth Jarvis, Andrei Svechnikov, Nikolaj Ehlers and Sebastian Aho will need to be key contributors offensively, while captain Jordan Staal will be relied on in a shutdown role.

Neither side relies solely on one or two guys for scoring; the offense is well distributed throughout the lineup by both the forwards and defensemen. Carolina had the better goaltending most of the season, but Ottawa's Linus Ullmark has found good form entering the playoffs. I am taking the more experienced team in this matchup, and that is the Hurricanes, who made it to the Eastern Conference Final last season and twice in the past three. Pick -- Hurricanes def. Senators 4-2

Penguins vs. Flyers

Series odds: Penguins -142, Flyers +118 (via FanDuel)

Nivison: The Battle of Pennsylvania is back, and it features one of the oldest teams in the league (Pittsburgh) against one of the youngest (Philadelphia). This is also a clash of styles, as the Penguins make their hay by generating scoring chances and expected goals at a relatively high rate, and the Flyers have made their living by preventing scoring chances and expected goals. The real battle to watch might be the matchup between the Flyers' shutdown line consisting of Noah Cates and Tyson Foerster against the Penguins' top line featuring Sidney Crosby.

Speaking of Crosby, he has a history of tormenting Philadelphia when it matters most. In his 23 career playoff games against the Flyers, Crosby has 15 goals and 21 assists. Throw in Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin, Erike Karlsson and Egor Chinakov, and the Pens have a sneakily formidable bunch up front. There will be a lot of pressure on Trevor Zegras and Travis Konecny to match that. Matvei Michkov is also an x-factor here. How much of a spark can he provide after an underwhelming regular season? This is an even matchup, especially with unknowns in the crease on both sides. Ultimately, Crosby and the wily veterans get the job done. Pick -- Penguins def. Flyers 4-3

Baumgartner: Before the 2025-26 NHL season, few had the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers making the playoffs in a stacked Eastern Conference. Both teams proved the skeptics wrong, setting up the first postseason Battle of Pennsylvania since the 2018 first round, which the Penguins won in six.

The Flyers have a good mix of youth and veterans within their squad. Travis Konecny, 29, led the team in scoring with 68 points (27 goals, 41 assists), while 25-year-old Trevor Zegras was right behind with 67 points (26 goals, 41 assists). Rookie Porter Martone, who recently made his NHL debut on March 31, has provided an additional spark with 10 points (4 goals, 6 assists) in just nine games. Philadelphia is a fun team, but I don't know if they can overcome a Pittsburgh side whose future Hockey Hall of Famers are still playing at an elite level. Captain Sidney Crosby extended his NHL record of consecutive point-per-game seasons to 21. Three-time Norris winner Erik Karlsson was second to Crosby in scoring with 66 points (15 goals, 51 assists). They have firepower up and down the lineup with Anthony Mantha, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Evgeni Malkin and standout rookie Ben Kindel. This series will be physical and nasty, as all rivalry matchups are. I give Pittsburgh the edge here. Pick -- Penguins def. Flyers 4-2

Sabres vs. Bruins

Series odds: Sabres -172, Bruins +142 (via FanDuel)

**Nivison:**Both squads have outperformed expectations and their underlying metrics in the regular season. Buffalo (1.022) and Boston (1.020) both ranked in the top four of PDO -- a loose measure of "puck luck" that adds a team's shooting and save percentages. So, predicting this matchup comes down to determining which team's regular season was for real.

In that regard, the Sabres are the clear favorite. Their five-on-five metrics aren't perfect, but they are far better than the Bruins, a team that ranks near the bottom of the NHL in several categories. Besides, it's hard to deny the talent on this Buffalo roster. Rasmus Dahlin is a Norris Trophy contender, and he's formed one of the NHL's best defensive pairs with Mattias Samuelsson. Tage Thompson is a true star up front, and Alex Tuch has been a man on a mission all season. Plus, Josh Doan and Jack Quinn have provided nice depth. The Bruins are outmatched, but there's a chance Jeremy Swayman steals a couple games and David Pastrnak takes over a couple more to reach four wins. I just don't see it as a very likely outcome. Pick -- Sabres def. Bruins 4-1

Baumgartner: The last time the Sabres were in the postseason, Thomas Vanek was their leading scorer, Ryan Miller was in net, and the year was 2011. 14 years later, they are back in the playoffs after winning the Atlantic Division  and snapping the longest postseason drought in NHL history.

Boston won't be an easy out in the first round. David Pastrnak can take over a game and Morgan Geekie has been a big addition to the Bruins' offense. If Jeremy Swayman stands on his head in goal, he could steal the series. However, the Sabres have been hot all season, and I don't see that coming to an abrupt end in the first round after such a long postseason hiatus. With Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin leading the charge, Buffalo should be able to get this done.  Pick -- Sabres def. Bruins 4-2

Lightning vs. Canadiens

Series odds: Lightning -285, Canadiens +230 (via FanDuel)

Nivison: It's a shame that one of these teams will be eliminated after the first round because they're both extremely fun. So, which one will advance? The Canadiens are led by a collection of ascending stars, but the Lightning boast a deep lineup of proven talent and Cup champions. In Montreal, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield have been punishing opponents with a plus-33 goal differential at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick. The former posted a career high 101 points, and the latter ranks second in the NHL with goals (51). Factor in Ivan Demidov, Juraj Slafkovsky and Lane Huston, and Montreal becomes a dangerous squad.

Unfortunately for the Habs, this Lightning team has just as much firepower, and it's significantly deeper at forward. Led by Nikita Kucherov (138 points) and Jake Guentzel (88 points), Tampa can roll a few lines that impact the game at both ends. The status of defenseman Victor Hedman looms large for the Bolts, but it helps to have J.J. Moser and Darren Raddysh on the blue line, too. Oh, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is one of the best goalies in the world. This will be a fun series, but Tampa is a little too deep for Montreal. Pick -- Lightning def. Canadiens 4-2

Baumgartner: Once again, the Atlantic Division was the best in the Eastern Conference. Even with the back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers out of the conversation this season, the race for the Atlantic title came down to the wire. The Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens both narrowly missed out on winning the division to the Buffalo Sabres. Instead, they'll meet in what should be the most entertaining first-round series, at least in the East.

After making the postseason last year, Montreal's game hit another level this season. Cole Caufield became the first Canadiens player in 36 years to hit the 50-goal mark, Lane Hutson's sophomore season had him in Norris Trophy conversations as one of the top defensemen in the league, and Captain Nick Suzuki became just the fifth player in franchise history to score 100 points in a season. Tampa had a bit of a resurgence after three consecutive first-round exits, with the past two coming to the Cup-winning Panthers. The Lightning have a complete team, with Hart candidate Nikita Kucherov and Vezina candidate Andrei Vasilevskiy leading the charge. Tampa will have home ice this series, which is important because nobody wants to play a Game 7 at the Bell Centre — and I think this series goes the distance. With a roster full of Cup winners, the better goaltender and home-ice advantage, I'm taking them to advance. Pick -- Lightning def. Canadiens 4-3

Western Conference

Avalanche vs. Kings

Series odds: Avalanche -465, Kings +350 (via FanDuel)

Nivison: The Avalanche have 13 more regulation wins (48) than the Kings have total wins (35). There is also a chasm when it comes to the goal differential. Colorado sits at plus-99, and Los Angeles sits at minus-22. That basically sums up the nature of this matchup. It's David vs. Goliath, and David left his sling at home.

You have to squint really hard to find a weakness on the Avalanche. Yes, they have superstar talent at the top of the lineup with Nathan MacKinnon up front and Cale Makar on defense, but they also have depth at every position. If it wanted to, Colorado could roll with MacKinnon, Brock Nelson, Nazem Kadri and Nic Roy down the middle. No other team could match that center depth -- least of all the Kings. Los Angeles is an exceptional defensive team, but it has the 29th-ranked scoring offense. Adrian Kempe and Quinton Byfield were hot down the stretch, so perhaps that helps. The one glimmer of hope for the Kings is that the Avs' goaltending situation isn't completely rock solid. Mackenzie Blackwood stumbled to the finish line, and journeyman backup Scott Wedgewood picked up the slack. L.A. just doesn't have the offensive pop to take advantage of that. Pick -- Avalanche def. Kings 4-1

Baumgartner: Credit to the Kings for making the postseason despite losing Kevin Fiala's services after the All-Star forward was injured at the Olympics. Artemi Panarin scoring at a point-per-game rate after being acquired by Los Angeles in February certainly helped them sneak into the playoffs. The Kings aren't a bad team, but they are running into the Stanley Cup favorites in the opening round.

The Presidents' Trophy-winning Avalanche are the last team I'd want to see this postseason. Nathan MacKinnon had another MVP-worthy season, leading the league with 53 goals and finishing third in scoring with 127 points. His running mate, Martin Necas, also had a 100-point season (38 goals, 62 assists), while defenseman Cale Makar finished with 79 points (20 goals, 59 assists) in 75 games. I'll give Los Angeles one win, but Colorado is the better team in every facet of the game. Pick -- Avalanche def. Kings 4-1

Stars vs. Wild

Series odds: Stars -118, Wild -102 (via FanDuel)

Nivison: This matchup is dead even -- especially given the injury questions about Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanend for the Stars. Even if those two do play, the Wild will still have the two best players in this series in Quinn Hughes and Kirill Kaprizov. Those two alone give Minnesota a shot in this series as Hughes set a franchise record for points by a defenseman with 53 points in just 48 games, and Kaprizov broke 40 goals and 40 assists. Still, Dallas is the more complete team when fully healthy.

Even if Hintz and Heiskanen aren't operating at 100%, the Stars can beat opponents in several ways. Jason Robertson fell just shy of totaling 100 points, and Wyatt Johnston has taken his game to another level. Mikko Rantanen is capable of winning games single-handedly, as we saw in Game 7 against the Avalanche last year. On defense, this matchup features two stingy teams with reliable goaltending. It should be a low-scoring series. Assuming Hintz and Heiskanen won't be at full strength, that weakens Dallas enough for the Wild to spring the upset in a slugfest. Pick -- Wild def. Stars 4-3

Baumgartner: The NHL needs to change the playoff format. Dallas and Minnesota were two of the three best teams in the West this year; they should not be playing each other in the first round. That being said, thanks to a playoff format that prioritizes divisional matchups over 1 vs. 8 seeding, we'll see two Cup contenders right off the bat.

The Wild will be trying to end a streak of eight consecutive opening-round exits. A lineup that has Quinn Hughes, Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy and Brock Faber, plus an elite goalie tandem of Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt seems like it's up to the task. Unfortunately for Minnesota, Dallas' lineup is equally impressive. Jason Robertson was arguably the league's top left winger this season, 22-year-old Wyatt Johnston scored a career-high 45 goals, Jake Oettinger had a good year in net, and they have Mikko Rantanen, who seems to always raise his game in the biggest moments of the postseason. This is a coin-flip matchup between two legit contenders. Dallas made it to the Western Conference Final in each of the past three seasons, and I value playoff experience, especially in the early rounds. I'm giving them the slight edge because of that. Pick -- Stars def. Wild 4-3

Golden Knights vs. Mammoth

Series odds: Golden Knights -188, Mammoth +155 (via FanDuel)

Nivison: The Mammoth will be a tough first-round test for the Golden Knights. Whether they have what it takes to pull off this upset is another question. Utah is a fast, young team that likes to attack off the rush, but Vegas has a roster capable of counteracting that style. No team surrenders expected goals at a lower rate than the Golden Knights, per Natural Stat Trick.

Utah is led by Clayton Keller, who has really stepped up at both ends of the ice. He and Nick Schmaltz are a formidable tandem at the top of the lineup, outscoring opponents 65-42 at five-on-five. Oddly enough, the top pairing on the back end, Mikhail Sergachev and Mackenzie Weegar, has yet to really click. That could be a problem for the Mammoth in this series. On the other bench, Jack Eichel has played his way into the Selke Trophy conversation with 90 points and excellent defense. The real key for the Golden Knights will be their blue line. The top four, headlined by Shea Theodore and Noah Hanifin, have the skating ability to keep up with the Mammoth's swift-skating forwards. Vegas' goaltending has been a complete mess this season, but Karel Vejmelka has really struggled of late, too. Vegas is able to put a lid on the Mammoth offense and win this series. Pick -- Golden Knights def. Mammoth 4-2

Baumgartner: The Golden Knights took a huge gamble when they fired head coach Bruce Cassidy with eight games left in the regular season. To their credit, the risky coaching change has been successful so far. Vegas found its game down the stretch, going 7-0-1 under Cassidy's replacement, John Tortorella, to clinch the Pacific Division title. The Mammoth finished fourth in a stacked Central Division but still made the postseason as a wild-card team. Despite its lower seeding, Utah's 43 wins were four more than Vegas. However, Vegas did have a higher point total (95 to Utah's 92).

Good goaltending can win you a game; great goaltending can win you a series. I think that'll be the difference in this matchup. Mammoth goaltender Karel Vejmelka's 63 starts led the NHL, and his 38 wins were second to Andrei Vasilevskiy's 39. While Vejmelka solidified himself as a top goalie in the league this season, Vegas' goaltending situation is far from perfect. The Golden Knights cycled three goalies most of the season: Adin Hill, Carter Hart and Akira Schmid. None of their numbers were overly impressive, but they did run Hart most of April, and he played well during that stretch. It seems likely it'll be his net to start. Vegas is riding a wave of momentum entering the postseason, but I am more confident in Vejmelka than anyone the Golden Knights can put in goal. Pick -- Mammoth def. Golden Knights 4-2

Oilers vs. Ducks

Series odds: Oilers -225, Ducks +184 (via FanDuel)

Nivison: Connor McDavid might set the record for most points in a single series. The Ducks' defense is borderline non-existent, their goaltending has collapsed and McDavid tends to flip a switch at this time of year. That's not to say Anaheim can't win this series. After all, Edmonton's goalie woes are well-documented, and its defense isn't terribly deep. The Ducks' high-flying offense could feast too.

Anaheim creates expected goals at the fourth-highest rate in the NHL, but it also surrenders expected goals at the fourth-highest rate, per Natural Stat Trick. That makes for an exciting brand of firewagon hockey, but it probably isn't a winning formula in the playoffs. Still, scoring is important, and the Ducks can do just that. Cutter Gauthier had a breakout season with 40 goals, Leo Carlsson is a rising star at center, and the acquisition of John Carlson gave Anaheim more offense from the back end. Edmonton is better defensively than it gets credit for, although most of that success is driven by the top pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard. Goaltending is a problem for both teams, but while Lukas Dostal of the Ducks has been a disaster for over a month now, Connor Ingram has at least given the Oilers some stability. Leon Draisaitl's availability for this series is in doubt, but McDavid can will his team to a victory in what should be a high-scoring affair. Pick -- Oilers def. Ducks 4-2

Baumgartner: Edmonton's quest to make the Stanley Cup Final for a third consecutive season starts against an Anaheim Ducks squad that shook up the Western Conference. Back in the playoffs for the first time since 2018, the Ducks found success with their young players this season. Cutter Gauthier, 22, Leo Carlsson, 21, and rookie Beckett Sennecke, 20, were Anaheim's top three scorers.

Given the Oilers are coming off back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances, it was a surprise to see them on the verge of falling into a wild-card spot on the final day of the regular season. Still, Connor McDavid was a man on a mission down the stretch, finishing the season with a league-leading 138 points (48 goals, 90 assists) for his sixth Art Ross Trophy. Leon Draisaitl (lower body) is expected to return at some point during the first round. The German superstar is a game changer, but even without him, the Oilers are the better team. Pick -- Oilers def. Ducks 4-1