State of the Sox: Turnaround rests with starting rotation

Q: How important is starting pitching for the Boston Red Sox's success?

Starting pitching is crucial for the Boston Red Sox, as strong performance on the mound often leads to consistent success in baseball.

Q: What factors contribute to the Red Sox's current struggles?

The Red Sox's struggles can be attributed to their starting rotation's performance, which is vital for overall team success.

Q: Can the Red Sox rely on analytics to improve their pitching?

While analytics play a role, the fundamental success of the Red Sox still hinges on the effectiveness of their starting pitchers.

Q: What role does starting pitching play in baseball success?

Starting pitching is often the backbone of a baseball team's success, as effective pitchers can lead to more victories.

BOSTON — Sometimes, for all the data, all the intricate number-crunching and the reliance on analytics, we’re reminded that, at its heart, baseball is a remarkably simple game.

It’s all about the starting pitching.

There’s always the odd exception, of course. Occasionally, you can mash your way to success. But far more often than not, that success is fleeting.

Pitch well, however, and you can almost always be successful.

Case in point: the 2026 Red Sox.

At 16-22, the Red Sox haven’t exactly doused themselves in glory. But lately, there have at least been signs of hope.

The Red Sox just swept the Detroit Tigers on the road and they did so on the backs of their starters, who allowed exactly one earned run over 17 innings in the series.

Further, over the last 12 games, during which the Sox are 7-5, the Red Sox have allowed three runs or fewer in nine of them.

The interesting thing is that this uptick in performance from the rotation comes at a time when injuries have sent two key starters — Garrett Crochet and Sonny Gray — to the IL, while another — Ranger Suarez — is being given extra time to recover from a strained hamstring before making his next start.

Even matched against an underperforming Tigers team in Detroit, you could squint and see the blueprint Craig Breslow drew up for this season: a consistent and deep starting rotation, backed by solid defense.

BETTING: For Friday’s contest against the Rays, Red Sox -1.5 runline is listed at +153 on DraftKings. Our complete DraftKings Sportsbook review provides a helpful guide on how to use their app.

(For all the early-season jokes about the Red Sox’ defense, it’s been generally excellent since mid-April, The Sox lead all of baseball in defensive runs saved and are among the leaders in Outs Above Average).

Payton Tolle was superb in between the raindrops, allowing just one unearned run. Sonny Gray was in full command, fresh off the IL, and in between, Brayan Bello figured things out, albeit with the help of the opener.

If the Red Sox get stretches of that kind of starting pitching, there’s hope for them yet. And a healthy Crochet would obviously go a long way toward a sustained run.

For all the optimism provided in Detroit, however, a hard dose of reality awaited the Sox on their return to Fenway Thursday night.

Jake Bennett, making his second big league start, was nicked for four runs over 5.1 innings, the kind of so-so outing that the Red Sox could ordinarily live with. After the Tampa Bay Rays scored three in the second — all while getting the ball in the air to the outfield just once — he settled in nicely and retired eight of the next nine hitters he faced over the next three innings.

The Rays would eventually cruise to an 8-4 win not because they walloped the ball around Fenway, but because they made consistent contact, put the ball in play and excelled at some finer details, including a number of bunts.

That’s the sort of approach the Red Sox are incapable of taking. For the time being, they have the worst of both worlds with their lineup: they lack power and they strike out too much (though Thursday was an exception in that regard, with only a modest six strikeouts recorded).

Simply put, the Red Sox don’t have that kind of game in their bag. They can string together some hits, and when the opponent is guilty of misplays, as the Tigers were repeatedly, the Sox can take advantage. What they can’t do, at least not often, is beat a team by utilizing a thousand cuts, the way the Rays did to them Thursday.

Instead, the Red Sox have to keep the opposition to four runs or fewer, which they’ve succeeded in doing in 15 of their last 20 games. That gives their offense at least a fighting chance.

Even better would be some length. Casting aside Tuesday night when the Sox utilized an opener for the first time this year, they’re 12-1 when their starting pitcher gets through six innings or more.

Is a rotation headed by Crochet, Gray, Bello, Suarez and either Tolle or Connelly Early capable of three runs or fewer and six innings or more? On most nights, yes.

That’s the path out of the darkness for these Red Sox, who for all their struggles over the first six weeks, are just two games in back of the third wild card team.

Even without expected depth options like Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval yet available, they’ve gotten strong contributions from Tolle and Bennett, neither of whom began the year with the parent club, never mind part of the rotation.

Still, Thursday served to remind them, that’s a lot to ask with an offense that appears so one-dimensional.