Sterling Vs. Zalal Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Sterling vs. Zalal Betting Odds

• Aljamain Sterling victory: +110
• Aljamain Sterling via TKO/KO/DQ: +1500
• Aljamain Sterling via submission: +460
• Aljamain Sterling via decision: +260
• Youssef Zalal victory: -140
• Youssef Zalal via TKO/KO/DQ: +440
• Youssef Zalal via submission: +1100
• Youssef Zalal via decision: +180
• Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

How Sterling Wins

Fighters like Sterling are quite rare nowadays. How many other American fighters are world-class because of their combination of scholastic wrestling and top-notch submission skills? That was common 15 years ago, but now Sterling is bearing the torch almost by himself. He’s also an underrated kickboxer, very effective if at times awkward.

In this fight as with most others, Sterling wants to find the takedown. Zalal presents a notable pair of obstacles to that goal: his excellent lateral movement and very well-timed knees. Further complicating matters is that Zalal is a sharp range kickboxer, meaning Sterling cannot just spam lots of kicks against an opponent ill-equipped to deal with him at that distance.

Because of this dynamic, Sterling’s cage-cutting and boxing will be tested. He doesn’t want to sprint forward and run into a counter like in the Sean O’Malley fight, nor can he shoot sloppily into a knee. Instead, Sterling will have to extend his combinations and use his kicks to limit Zalal from circling off. If he can trap Zalal on the fence, he should be able to jab-and-feint his way into a successful double leg entry.

Catching kicks could also be a great entry for the takedown. To help make that happen, Sterling should look to blast power kicks and anticipate the return — Zalal can’t throw knees if he’s already on one leg!

How Zalal Wins

Youssef Zalal is a very smooth customer. He’s a sniper at distance, using very smart shot selection and strong distance management to walk his foes into heavy connections. The intercepting knee has been his weapon of choice lately, but his kicks and straight punches are formidable threats as well. In addition, the jiu-jitsu black belt has 10 victories via tapout.

Just as Zalal poses major problems for Sterling, there are elements to the “Funkmaster” game that could make Zalal’s evening miserable. If Zalal tries to run around too much, he’s going to hit the fence, end up on bottom, and get stuck beneath the former champion’s excellent top pressure. Conversely, if he stands his ground and gets too bold with his counters, Sterling will duck his blows and achieve the same problematic outcome.

Zalal’s task is to walk that tight rope.

There are two areas where I can envision Zalal having real, relatively safe success. First and foremost, he has to be diligent in countering the kicks of Sterling, who is guilty of throwing naked kicks at a high volume. That’s a free opportunity for Zalal to block and return fire while Sterling is out of position to wrestle.

Additionally, Sterling takes awful shots surprisingly often for such a great wrestler. How many times have we seen him sprawled out on in the front head lock position? Generally, he’s tough to punish from that position, but Zalal has the jiu-jitsu skill to threaten the neck and maybe even time a knee on the way up — please no Petr Yan incidents! — as Sterling retreats back to his feet.

Sterling vs. Zalal Prediction

There have always been problems with Sterling’s game. He’s the rare (former) champion who is fairly prone to fatiguing. His boxing has always been more enthusiastic than technical. His naked kicks and shots put him in bad positions. Historically, he gets away with all of these flaws because he’s such a great athlete with a truly otherworldly transitional grappling game.

I am less convinced that Sterling can continue to get away with these issues at Featherweight, where he’s only reasonably bigger than most opponents rather than gigantic. At 36, those physical gifts are likely starting to decline, which makes the gaps appear more obvious. Zalal is young and in his prime, and he has the technical depth to expose Sterling’s flaws over five rounds.

Sterling wrestling his way to an early submission or competitive decision certainly wouldn’t shock me, but I’m going to side with the younger man to be competitive everywhere before pulling away in the second half of the fight.

Prediction: Zalal via decision

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