Sunday MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets: Twins-Blue Jays, Marlins-Tigers, More

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - OCTOBER 16: Manager John Schneider #14 of the Toronto Blue Jays walks to the mound to talk to Max Scherzer #31 during the fifth inning against the Seattle Mariners in game four of the American League Championship Series at T-Mobile Park on October 16, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)

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Sundays are always a fun day in MLB, as the slate begins in the early afternoon and is capped off with a marquee primetime showdown. There are plenty of opportunities for creative MLB wagering as well, with YRFI (Yes Runs First Inning) and NRFI (No Runs First Inning) bets a fitting example.

With that in mind, let’s dive into three such potentially profitable scenarios for today’s games:

Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays, 1:37 p.m. ET

• Bet: YRFI

The Twins and Blue Jays will trot out Taj Bradley and Max Scherzer as the starting pitchers for the rubber match of their three-game weekend series. While both right-handers undeniably have talent, each brings a rocky history against the opposition into Sunday’s matinee, not to mention a track record of first-inning trouble.

Bradley has actually gotten his season off to a blazing start, furnishing a 1.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 22:4 K:BB across his first 16.2 innings. However, advanced metrics indicate Bradley has been blessed by some good fortune as well, as he also sports a 3.11 xERA and is allowing a career-high 94.1 mph average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Then, Bradley has surrendered a collective .271 average, .804 OPS and six extra-base hits (out of 16 total) in 61 career encounters with current Toronto hitters. Additionally, Bradley gave up a .285 average with runners in scoring position last season per Baseball Reference, while also pitching to a 5.33 ERA and .272 BAA in the first inning.

Meanwhile, Scherzer has also been fairly solid to start the season after pitching to a rough 5.19 ERA across 17 turns in 2025. The legendary right-hander has a 1-1 record, 3.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his first two starts, per RotoWire. However, Scherzer has already given up two home runs, and he’s traditionally allowed his fair share of round-trippers, even in his prime.

Advanced metrics also suggest Scherzer could be due for some regression. He’s carrying a 6.64 xERA, .296 xBA and .398 xwOBA, and he’s surrendering a career-high 17.4% barrel rate. Current Twins hitters have also pounded him for a collective .324 average, 1.042 OPS and 10 extra-base hits (out of 22 total) in 75 career plate appearances.

Finally, there’s the matter of Scherzer’s first-inning issues, which last season were evidenced by a massive 12.96 ERA and .407 BAA across 17 opening frames.

Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers, 1:40 p.m. ET

• Bet: NRFI

In contrast to the first game I just broke down, we have a pair of aces on the hill for this interleague clash. Sandy Alcantara and 2025 AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal are on the bump for the Marlins and Tigers, respectively, and both hurlers have gotten the 2026 campaign off to strong starts over their first three trips to the mound.

Alcantara looks back to his Cy Young-winning self over his first three starts, pitching to a 2-0 record, 0.74 ERA and 0.58 WHIP across his first 24.1 innings while not giving up a single home run in that span. The hard-throwing right-hander has yielded just 10 hits as well, and his advanced metrics indicate he’s been about as good as his surface numbers indicate.

According to Baseball Savant, Alcantara carries a 1.35 xERA, .156 xBA and .186 xwOBA thus far this season. The 1.6% barrel rate and 28.1% hard-hit rate he’s surrendering are also career lows, and he’s facing a Tigers team whose current hitters have only mustered a .175 average and .439 OPS against him across 57 career plate appearances.

On the other side, Skubal did stumble some in his most recent start, allowing four earned runs on eight hits over 4.2 innings to the Twins. Yet, the southpaw pitched to an 0.69 ERA and 0.69 WHIP across his first two starts of the season, turning in a 9:0 K:BB in that span.

Skubal has a 2.06 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9 and 11.0 K/9 at home since the start of the 2024 season, per RotoWire. Then, he was excellent in the first inning last season, pitching to a 1.45 ERA and .162 BAA across 31 opening frames while recording 33 strikeouts in the sample. This season, he’s given up just one first-inning run in his first three starts.

Current Marlins hitters have just a .167 average against Skubal in 18 career plate appearances, and Miami has just a .218 average, .283 wOBA and -4.9 wRAA against lefties thus far this season per Fangraphs.

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, 2:10 p.m. ET

• Bet: NRFI

While it doesn’t quite carry the marquee value of the Alcantara-Skubal showdown, this Grant Taylor-Noah Cameron starting pitching matchup features a pair of promising young arms going up against a pair of sputtering early-season offenses.

Both the White Sox and Royals have scuffled when it’s come to getting runs across – Chicago has scored an MLB-low 43 runs, while Kansas City checks in with a modest 49 runs in its own right.

Taylor has three starts to his name to begin the season, but the 23-year-old right-hander has worked as an opener in those instances, as he’ll do again Sunday. Taylor has proven quite adept in that role, giving up just one earned run and posting an 8:2 K:BB over his first 6.1 innings while also making three relief appearances. Taylor has fired three scoreless first innings along the way while allowing just a .100 batting average against in that sample per Baseball Reference.

The Royals come into the day averaging the third-fewest first-inning runs per home game (0.11), and NRFI bets hold a 6-3 mark in Kansas City’s home games in the early going.

Cameron is off to a good start in his quest to build on an impressive rookie season, posting a 1-0 record, 1.69 ERA and 10:2 K:BB over his first 10.2 innings while not yet allowing a ball to leave the park. The left-hander does have some advanced metrics that suggest he’s been on the right side of luck to a degree, but he hasn’t allowed a run in either of his two first innings while pitching to a .143 BAA.

The opposing White Sox haven’t exactly been a fearsome bunch against southpaws early this season, either. Chicago has a massive 33.1% strikeout rate, .187 average and .273 wOBA in that split, and over 12 home starts last season, Cameron pitched to a .217 BAA in the opening frame per Fangraphs.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com