Suns vs Thunder preview for Game 3: Trade on NBA Playoffs prediction markets

Suns vs Thunder preview for Game 3

Current prediction market probabilities strongly favor the Thunder to secure the Game 3 victory. With a commanding 78% win probability, the data indicates massive confidence in the visiting squad. On the flip side, the Suns face a steep uphill battle on their home floor at just 22%. This significant probability gap highlights the Thunder as the overwhelming favorite to break the series deadlock at the Mortgage Matchup Center.

Suns vs Thunder series stats and matchup analysis

So how do these two playoff rivals compare as they prepare for Game 3? So far in this postseason clash, the Thunder have thoroughly outpaced the Suns on both ends of the floor.

The Thunder boast a highly efficient offensive attack, averaging 119.5 points and 26 assists per game while shooting 46% from the field. Meanwhile, the Suns have struggled to find a consistent rhythm, managing just 95.5 points and 19.5 assists per contest on a sluggish 41% shooting.

The most glaring mismatch of the series lies in ball security and defensive disruption. The smothering defense from the Thunder is generating an impressive 13.5 steals and 6.5 blocks per game. They are forcing the Suns into a disastrous 19 turnovers per contest while committing only 8 themselves. This immense discrepancy allows the Thunder to thrive in transition, scoring 28 points off turnovers per game compared to a meager 5.5 for the Suns.

Key matchups to watch will be on the perimeter, where Gilgeous-Alexander will look to exploit the defense against stiff opposition from Booker and Dillon Brooks. Down low, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein will battle Mark Williams in the paint. The Thunder currently hold a slight 47 to 44.5 per-game rebounding edge in that department. With the Thunder holding a commanding 2-0 series lead, elite scorers like Booker and Gilgeous-Alexander will be looking to impose their will as the Suns fight to stay alive and the Thunder aim to take a stranglehold on the series.

Injury report for Suns and Thunder

Heading into this pivotal Game 3 matchup, both rosters are managing injuries that could alter the series dynamics.

Thunder

• Jalen Williams (G-F): Out (Hamstring)
• Thomas Sorber (C): Out for Season (Knee)

Suns

• Mark Williams (C): Day-to-Day (Foot)
• Jordan Goodwin (G): Day-to-Day (Calf)

The defining injury of this series is the loss of Jalen Williams. Sidelined week-to-week, the Thunder lose a vital two-way perimeter starter, placing immense pressure on their remaining healthy stars to pick up the scoring slack. For the Suns, the day-to-day status of center Mark Williams looms large. If he is unable to suit up after missing Game 2, the Suns will be robbed of crucial interior size and paint defense, making it incredibly difficult to close the rebounding gap.

Thunder vs Suns Game 3 prediction

Despite the Suns holding home-court advantage at the Mortgage Matchup Center, the Thunder enter Game 3 with too much firepower and defensive prowess to be denied. Even with the week-to-week absence of Jalen Williams and the missing 20.5 points per game he provides, the Thunder are heavily favored to break the series deadlock for good reason.

The Thunder offense will continue to run through Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been magnificent this postseason. The superstar guard is averaging a blistering 31 points and 8 assists per contest. His staggering +40 plus/minus rating highlights exactly how dominant the Thunder are with him leading the charge. Couple his offensive creation with Holmgren and Hartenstein, and the visiting squad possesses a massive advantage in the paint.

For the Suns to pull off the home upset, Booker and Brooks must play virtually flawless basketball. While Brooks and Booker have carried the scoring load, their efficiency and ball security have been problematic. Booker is currently surrendering 4 turnovers per game and carries a highly concerning -37 plus/minus in the postseason. Elite perimeter defenders like Luguentz Dort, who grabs 1 steal per game, are perfectly positioned to exploit these exact turnover issues.

Expect the Thunder's overwhelming defensive pressure and elite shot-making from Gilgeous-Alexander to ultimately dictate the tempo. The Suns simply do not have the depth or ball security to withstand this relentless, multi-layered attack over a full 48 minutes.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder