Suns vs. Thunder Round 1 series preview: X-Factors, matchups, prediction

Nov 28, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) gives a thumbs up to his team during the second half against the Phoenix Suns at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Break down all of the X's and O's minutiae you want — everything boils down to Gilgeous-Alexander. He's the NBA's best player for a reason. He enters this Round 1 matchup as the undisputed top player. The Suns will spend the next week-plus game-planning ways to limit him. But it'll likely be all for naught. That's how dang-good the walking 30-point machine is.

Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 30 points on 50.9% shooting and 7.3 assists in three games against the Suns this season. He shot 50% from 3 on 4.7 attempts. While those numbers look mundane by his standards, one of those games featured a historic blowout win in the NBA Cup.

The Suns will likely throw Dillon Brooks at Gilgeous-Alexander. He'll spend a lot of one-on-one time with the pesky defender. Other Phoenix players will also get their turns on the reigning MVP. Let's see if he can finally turn in a strong Round 1 series. That's been the only knock in his playoff resume. He usually trolls around too much. The Thunder may need him to hit big-time buckets against a top-10 defense.

Williams' warmup series

Jan 4, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns forward Dillon Brooks (3) defends against Oklahoma City Thunder guard Jalen Williams (8) in the first half at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The average fan will designate this as the 'NBA TV' series — rest in peace. But if you dig a little deeper, you uncover some juicy storylines between Jalen Williams and the Suns. After all, he injured his wrist at their gym last year in a meaningless regular-season game after they already clinched the first seed. Fast forward to this year, he sustained his second hamstring strain at the same gym. That cost him three weeks.

So yeah, pretty bad mojo in Phoenix. Which is pretty funny, considering that's where Williams' roots are at. He was limited to 33 games this past regular season, which means he's still trying to get up to NBA speed. And as we all know, playoff speed is a different beast. The 25-year-old proclaims he's extremely fresh heading into the playoffs. Let's see if he can knock off any leftover rust in Round 1.

While you can't overlook a playoff opponent, the Thunder should take care of business against the Suns. The talent discrepancy will eventually be too much to overcome. Not trying to overly disrespect Phoenix's odds at a David-esque upset, this could help Williams get back into the flow of things and become OKC's other 20-plus point scorer. That'll matter much more in the later rounds.

Holmgren against Phoenix frontcourt

Jan 4, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren (7) drives to the basket against Phoenix Suns forward Oso Ighodaro (11) in the first half at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

At the peak of his powers, Holmgren enters the NBA playoffs the most ready he's been. He has experience on his side with a championship ring. His body is also his friend this go-around — unlike last year, where he battled through two months of playoff basketball at low capacity due to a hip fracture that cost him three months.

The Suns have been an awesome story because of their small-ball style. They play a similar brand to OKC's by causing a bunch of turnovers. On the other end, it's a bunch of perimeter-oriented players who run their offense. That's not out of style, but necessity. Phoenix's frontcourt isn't super daunting — at least with its size.

Mark Williams has been a nice story, but injuries continue to plague him. He's really their only true center on the roster. They had to start Oso Ighodaro in their play-in win over the Warriors because of their lack of big-man depth. That sets the table up for Holmgren to feast. He's had his best scoring season at 17.1 points on 55.7% shooting. A lot of that comes with being a play-finish around the rim — whether on alley-oops or putbacks. The seven-footer can rely on those same looks to be there against the Suns. He's primed to have a big scoring outing.

How Thunder limit Green

Jan 4, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns forward Dillon Brooks (3) celebrates with teammate Jalen Green against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second half at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Suns' ultimate wildcard. Green didn't play in any of the five regular-season games between these teams. That means the Thunder will get their first look at the 24-year-old since he joined his new squad. Even though hamstring problems limited him to 32 games, he's shown the same wide range of scoring talents.

Some nights, he looks like an NBA superstar. He scored 35 points in a loss to the Portland Trail Blazers and a sizzling 36 points in a win over the Warriors in the play-in tournament. Against the latter, he shot an electric 8-of-14 from 3. Other nights, he looks like a bust. He only averaged 17.8 points on 42.2% shooting this season.

We already know the Thunder will go all out to limit Booker. He's Phoenix's all-time best player. And even though it's been a down year for him, you sell out when he has the ball in his hands. Look what happened when he hit his game-winner over OKC earlier this regular season. That means if they can limit Green, the Suns' offense suddenly dries up. Nobody else can create their own look. Expect OKC's three-headed perimeter-defensive monster to get its fair share of looks on the Suns' most volatile player.

Whose role players step up?

Nov 28, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Alex Caruso (9) attempts a shot as Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) defends during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

This is the age-old question that's asked in every NBA playoff series. Typically speaking, role players play better at home. That adage has been around since basketball was invented. In this specific case, it'll be interesting to see whose depth is flexed more.

We know about the Thunder already. They're viewed as the league's deepest team. Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace are advanced metric darlings. Isaiah Joe and Ajay Mitchell could go on scoring heaters. And the rest of the depth chart isn't half-bad. They need to play better than their Suns' counterparts — at the very least in their home gym.

Speaking of the Suns, I really like their depth. After going top-heavy the last couple of years, they filled out their bench this year. Guys like Jordan Goodwin, Royce O'Neale and Grayson Allen have been awesome additions for them. Everybody knows their role. You don't have to deal with any headaches or personality clashes. This has been a fun squad where Phoenix has squeezed every drop of talent juice out of its roster for the absolute best-case scenario.

X-factor: Ajay Mitchell

Dec 10, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Ajay Mitchell (25) drives beside Phoenix Suns guard Jamaree Bouyea (17) during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Running it back with mostly the same group, Mitchell's ascension is the biggest new variable. The Thunder will toy around with what it's like to have a secondary ball-handler. Something it really didn't have in last year's run to an NBA championship. The 23-year-old has enjoyed a breakout season. He's averaged 13.6 points on 48.5% shooting and 3.6 assists.

In last year's playoff run, Mitchell only logged 84 minutes. He should easily surpass this number this year. The Thunder have seen him blossom into a legitimate Sixth Man scorer. He can run the second unit or play alongside the starters with ease. His drive-first mentality assures he won't rely on streaky shooting to put up points. On defense, he's shown he can keep up with anybody thanks to his size.

The Thunder could really depend on Mitchell in the NBA playoffs. He's the best of both worlds. He can get his own bucket and be a tough-nosed defender who won't get picked on. And sometimes, how you hold up on defense is equally as important — if not more — than what you do on offense at this juncture of the year.

Series prediction

Nov 28, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA;Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) forces Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) to turn over the ball during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Regardless of who survived the play-in tournament, the Thunder were going to be heavily favored to make quick work of their Round 1 opponent. That says less about the Suns and more about how dominant OKC is. If this turns into a low-scoring series — like I think it will — then I'd take Gilgeous-Alexander over Booker any day of the week to come up with big-time buckets. History backs that up, too.

The Thunder have shown the ability to absolutely blow the door off the Suns. It's happened a couple of times. They just don't possess the ball-handlers to withstand OKC's pressure. Could easily see several games in this series escalating because they force a turnover every other possession.

I think the Thunder get another Round 1 sweep to make it three-for-three since Gilgeous-Alexander's ascension. I like the Suns and they've had a nice season, but the talent gap is too wide. That said, we should get some thrilling finishes between these two squads as well.

Prediction: Thunder in 4

This article originally appeared on OKC Thunder Wire: Suns vs. Thunder Round 1 series preview: X-Factors, matchups, prediction