Tarik Skubal to undergo elbow surgery: Injury details, fallout for Tigers and fantasy managers

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D.J. Short

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Skubal first felt something during the seventh inning of his last start against the Braves, where he winced and grabbed at his forearm, prompting a visit from catcher Dillon Dingler, the training staff and manager A.J. Hinch. After tossing a warmup pitch though, the assessment was that he was fine and could continue. Skubal then went on to strike out the side in his final inning of work.

Some in the Tigers’ organization were on high alert, waiting to see how he felt the following day and how he would feel after his next bullpen session. Skubal cleared those hurdles and felt fine immediately after Sunday’s bullpen session. At some point later in the day though, his elbow locked up on him again. The Tigers then had scans done on his elbow which revealed the issue.

Hinch told reporters on Monday that it should be an “easy process and procedure” to take care of the bone chips, but nothing is ever as easy as it seems, especially when it concerns the prized left elbow on one of the best pitchers in baseball.

The 29-year-old southpaw sounded upbeat and optimistic when discussing the procedure on Monday, noting "From my understanding, you just go take it out… I think length of the rehab is probably just getting your spring training buildup up again, getting your volume up. But the procedure itself I think is pretty simple as far as what I've been explained… I think the important thing is getting them taken out, and then you let the incisions heal I'm assuming, let everything else heal up inside, start playing catch again and get back to pitching in the big leagues." He also reiterated his intention to have the procedure, "as soon as possible so that way I can be back as soon as possible."

While there is no clear timeline for how long he’ll be shelved for, this type of procedure generally requires two or three months of rehab. That means if everything goes according to plan and he avoids any setbacks along the way, Skubal could be back on the mound for the Tigers shortly after the All-Star break. That would still give him plenty of time to shake off the rust and round back into form before the pennant chase.

Impact to Tigers

The first avenue to explore with this devastating news on Monday is how does this impact the Tigers and their starting rotation. With Skubal down, the Tigers are now without three members of their Opening Day rotation as Justin Verlander (hip) has been sidelined since his first start of the season and Casey Mize landed on the injured list at the end of April with a right adductor strain. Oh, and Reese Olson is already out for the season after undergoing labrum surgery on his shoulder back in March.

That leaves just Framber Valdez and Jack Flaherty to hold down the fort. That’s fine in the case of Valdez, he was signed with the intention that he could become the team’s ace should Skubal decide to hit the open market and sign elsewhere after the 2026 campaign. He has been as solid as ever through his first seven starts with the team, posting a 3.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and a 32/14 K/BB ratio across 40 1/3 innings. As long as Skubal is back and ready to go to give the team that dynamite 1-2 punch heading into the postseason, Valdez can help to pick up the slack until then.

Flaherty, on the other hand, is a complete wild card. If the Tigers’ rotation had even been somewhat healthy to this point, an argument can be made that Flaherty may have already lost his job. He has completely lost command of his fastball and has walked a league-leading 25 batters through his first 29 innings of work. That has led to a miserable 5.90 ERA and a cringe-inducing 1.79 WHIP through his first seven starts.

Keider Montero has been great as a fill-in for Verlander, and he’ll now be asked to shoulder even more of the load going forward. That’s still only three starters though, at least until Mize and/or Verlander are ready to return. There had been speculation that Sawyer-Gipson Long could be recalled to take Mize’s spot in the rotation when he went down, that was until it was reported that Gipson-Long was pulled from his most recent start at Triple-A Toledo due to discomfort and that he would be shut down from throwing as well.

So where do the Tigers go from here? So far, they have gone back to what carried them through their rotation woes in 2025, embracing pitching chaos. Going with bullpen days in two out of five rotation spots and attempting to piece it together. That can be a viable strategy, at least for a limited time, but it’s tough to rely on it for too long. Ty Madden was promoted from Triple-A Toledo on Monday to take Skubal’s spot on the roster and he’ll at least give the team another bullpen arm that’s capable of working multiple innings.

Last season we saw Brant Hurter excel in a bulk relief role out of the Tigers’ bullpen, working behind an opener. Perhaps that’s the avenue that we’re heading down once again until reinforcements arrive.

The other major wild card here is Drew Anderson. The Tigers signed Anderson to a one-year, $7 million deal in early December with a $10 million club option for the 2027 season with the expectation that he would pitch out of the rotation after a strong two-year stretch in the Korea Baseball Organization where he compiled a sparkling 2.91 ERA across 287 1/3 innings over 54 starts. He has been utilized in a multi-inning role out of the bullpen so far this season, posting an uninspiring 5.12 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 19 1/3 innings in his 11 appearances. His 22/9 K/BB ratio is solid though and after a very rough stretch to open the season he has settled down a bit, allowing just one earned run over his last eight innings with a 12/2 K/BB ratio during that stretch. Whether it’s as a traditional starter or in that bulk role, expect Anderson to play a major role in logging innings until the Tigers get some healthy bodies back.

One of those bodies could eventually be Troy Melton (elbow), who began a minor league rehab assignment at Single-A Lakeland on Sunday. The expectation is that he’s going to need the full rehab window before he’s ready to return in early June and even then he’ll probably be deployed out of the bullpen in multi-inning spurts, kind of like Anderson, Hurter and Madden.

Chaos ensues.

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Impact to Fantasy Managers

If you have rostered Tarik Skubal in fantasy leagues this season, you’re likely as sad and disappointed as Tigers’ fans are to hear this unfortunate news. You likely spent your first-round pick on him expecting elite-level production for the duration of the season and only got it for seven starts. If your league has IL spots that you can use to stash Skubal while he’s sidelined, this news hurts, but it’s not the end of the world. You can piece together a pitching spot for the few months that he’s sidelined.

If your league does not have IL spots and has a limited roster, it’s a much more devastating blow. Not only are you going to miss that ace-level production for two or three months, but you simply can’t drop Skubal, meaning you have to carry him as a zero for the duration of his time on the injured list, limiting your overall roster flexibility and severely impacting your availability to make impact additions. Since most teams are already holding other injured players and/or stashes, you’re now forced to make even tougher roster decisions just to maintain a full and competitive lineup each and every week.

Even in the shallowest of leagues, I’d have a hard time justifying cutting Skubal, as you’d likely be gifting two months of elite production to another manager in your league. It’s a tough spot to be in, but the best thing that you can do now is be patient and not make bad decision out of frustration.

For fantasy purposes, you’re still probably ahead of the game with what Skubal has given you so far compared to what your peers are getting from their aces. Garrett Crochet, the third starting pitcher off the board by ADP this spring, has registered a 6.30 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over his 30 innings and currently resides on the injured list due to inflammation in his pitching shoulder. Cristopher Sanchez has a 1.51 WHIP. Hunter Brown made just two starts before landing on the injured list with a shoulder issue. Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo each have just one win and have underwhelmed according to expectations. That’s just among the first ten pitchers off the board. I’m still confident that by season’s end, you’ll be happy with the overall line that you get from Skubal, even if it only ends up being 15 starts instead of 32.

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Impact to Skubal’s Pending Free Agency

The other angle to consider here is how this injury will impact Skubal as he heads into free agency following the 2026 season. He’s pitching on the final season of his contract after earning a record-setting $32 million through arbitration this past offseason and early estimates were that his take in free agency would exceed $400 million. That could change on this latest injury news, though.

Skubal has been no stranger to arm-related injuries in his career. He previously underwent Tommy John surgery during his sophomore season at the University of Seattle. He also underwent flexor tendon surgery at the end of the 2023 season. Each time he came back stronger and better than ever. That could be the case here as well, but unless he returns and looks like his Cy Young-caliber self in the final two months of the 2026 season, some teams may be a bit more leery of giving a 10-year, $400 million deal to a 30-year-old pitcher that’s coming off of his third elbow surgery.

As a die-hard Tigers’ fan myself, this has been a bitter pill to swallow today. I loved the fact that the Tigers were finally willing to spend money this offseason and really make a push to make the World Series in what was always likely to be Skubal’s final season with the team. There was always a built-in contingency plan in place if things didn’t go well for the first four months of the season and the playoffs were looking like a pipe dream, that you could have peddled the star left-hander for a king’s ransom, as he would likely walk after the season anyways and you’d be left with nothing more than a competitive balance pick. This injury hits both ends of that extreme pretty hard. Not only will you no longer have the option to move Skubal at the deadline now, but it’s going to be that much more difficult to keep pace in the playoff race without the best pitcher on the planet toeing the slab every fifth game.

The only thing remaining for me, Tigers’ fans, and fantasy managers everywhere is hope. We have to hope that Skubal undergoes surgery as quickly as possible and everything goes well. We must hope that he works his tail off and makes it back to the mound as quickly as possible. We then have to hope that he’s still the same pitcher upon his return and has the ability to lead the Tigers and fantasy managers to greatness over the final few months of the season. Is it a tall ask? Absolutely. But if there’s one pitcher in the world that can pull it off, it’s Tarik Skubal.