Tennessee drops to 3 seed in latest NCAA Tournament projections

Tennessee pitcher Brady Frederick (6) pitches during a NCAA baseball game between Tennessee and Ole Miss at Lindsey Nelson Stadium on April 18, 2026. | Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tennessee baseball had a less than showing last weekend, dropping two out of three games to the Kentucky Wildcats. Tennessee folded in the late innings on Sunday, allowing eight runs over the final three frames, but held on to win 10-9.

The Wildcats were a bubble team coming in, so the series win over the Vols certainly helped their cause. What about Tennessee? How are they looking for the NCAA Tournament?

Baseball America and D1 Baseball both put out their new projected fields, and both, interestingly enough, had the Vols in the exact same spot — the 3 seed in the Georgia Tech regional. Both also have the Yellow Jackets as the No. 2 national seed. D1 baseball has Jacksonville State as the 2 seed in the Tech region, with Baseball America listing Oklahoma State.

If you follow the logic that the strongest 3 seeds line up with the lower 2 seeds, then Tennessee isn’t far from the 2 line, which is where the Vols were last week after taking two out of three from Alabama. So there’s room to jump up a line. But a rough ending to the season could put the Vols’ place in the tournament in jeopardy altogether.

The challenge is undeniable down the stretch, as Tennessee hosts No. 4 Texas this weekend in the regular season finale in Knoxville. They finish at Oklahoma, who is currently a 2 seed and close to the 1 seed line.

Will Tennessee capitalize on a golden opportunity to clinch a tournament spot, or will they do the unthinkable and miss out altogether. We’ll find out starting on Friday night.