The 10 factors that will decide the Premier League title race

They are now effectively neck-and-neck. And what a finale to this Premier League title race we have in store.

Arsenal and Manchester City have five weeks to prove why they should be Premier League champions after a scintillating top-of-the-table clash on the most Super of Sundays evened the stakes.

Now, City can overtake Arsenal on goal difference if they beat Burnley on Wednesday, live on Sky Sports. With so much on the line, what will be the factors that determine the run-in?

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The looming T word

Forget Premier League title favourites, Manchester City are now on for a domestic treble. The significance of which seems difficult to comprehend after a campaign of inconsistency that was meandering towards nothingness merely a month ago. How fortuitous does this all feel?

Well, Man City are the perfect opportunists. Circumstances have converged kindly for Pep Guardiola from January onwards. It started with the low-cost, high-impact signings of Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi and snowballed from there. Last month's Carabao Cup final beating of Arsenal then wrestled momentum at the perfect juncture and pocketed the first trophy on offer.

Now City close in. They are masters of the home stretch. April is Man City's best month under Guardiola in terms of points-per-game and win rate. No inhibitions from here, just freestyling football. Not to mention the kindest of FA Cup draws as they meet Championship side Southampton in the semi-finals this weekend.

Luck? Fate? Something else entirely? Whatever the reasoning or rationale another historic treble is remarkably in reach.

Gunners have favourable fixtures - but will Europe impact?

Image: Arsenal and Man City's remaining PL fixtures - April 19

As these two titans go toe-to-toe towards the finish line, who has the better fixtures?

Arsenal do have the more favourable run-in, with all of their remaining games against teams in the bottom half of the table. City have some tricky away games coming up, with visits against Everton and Bournemouth being branded as opportunities for Arsenal to capitalise on dropped points.

However, Arsenal's Champions League campaign could have a big say. Mikel Arteta's side have failed to win seven out of the last 10 matches which have followed a European fixture. And London derbies with bogey team Fulham and an away trip to relegation-threatened West Ham follow the two semi-final matches with Atletico Madrid...

Calm heads make better decisions

As alluded to already, the opportunity to take a running jump at this title has rather fallen in City's lap. Guardiola might argue they were playing the long game. Analysts might believe Arsenal, as they have continually proven, were always going to stumble. The Gunners would have been temporarily 12 points clear if they had beaten Bournemouth last Saturday. Race over.

And it's because of the gap, the 207 days spent at the top, the depth of a superior squad and desire of a manager that has come so close, that it always felt like Arsenal's. Until it didn't. While Arsenal fans have spent all season whipping themselves into a frenzy over the prospect of a first title in 22 years, City's expectations have been modestly tempered.

Not even Guardiola believed this was possible until now. And so City have the fortune of going at this run-in with a devil-may-care attitude. Do not underestimate the power of clear and calm heads as the pressure mounts.

Arteta needs to pick the right striker

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Kai Havertz misses a glorious opportunity in injury time to level for Arsenal against Manchester City.

If marginal goal difference is going to feature, then Arsenal will need more firepower.

It was clear in Sunday's loss that Arsenal have two very different profiles in Kai Havertz and Viktor Gyokeres. The Gunners look a better overall team with Havertz as their No 9, with the German's ability to occupy defenders and create space for others very clear at the Etihad.

The only problem is Havertz is not a ruthless goalscorer, as can be seen with the three big chances missed in Manchester.

Gyokeres, meanwhile, is a natural goalscorer - as evidenced by his 18 goals in all competitions in a season where he hasn't exactly impressed. But the Swedish forward lacks in the hold-up and build-up phase, where Havertz thrives.

How Arteta chooses between his No 9 options will be vital to Arsenal's trophy chances from here.

The Cherki factor

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Rayan Cherki gives Man City the lead in their Premier League clash with Arsenal.

Over to the importance of City's chief spark. Clearly Semenyo and Guehi have been season-changing. But the mastery of Rayan Cherki should be given equal weight in this category.

Every title-winning side needs a Cherki-style character. The last time Man City won the league it was Phil Foden; not just with the goals he scored but the charisma he carried in big games and influential moments. That responsibility is now Cherki's to bear.

The Frenchman has been directly involved in 12 goals in 16 Premier League starts, none more important than the sumptuous opener in victory over Arsenal. He is also the first Premier League player to 10+ goals and 10+ assists across all competitions this season. A proper creative genius.

Odegaard shows worth in much-needed return

Image: Martin Odegaard's stats vs Man City

Arsenal were struggling for form and fluency going into the Man City game but actually delivered a display of promise despite the result. One of the reasons for the shift? Martin Odegaard.

The Arsenal captain was a strong presence with and without the ball, knitting Arsenal's creative play together whilst also leading the off-the-ball press to cause City problems.

Odegaard has been sorely missed with this just his third start in three months. It was only the fourth start of the season alongside Eberechi Eze. In the other three games, one of them was forced off before the start of the second half.

Cherki has shown the unpredictability of flair players is crucial in a title race. If Odegaard and Eze can start regularly, it's a huge boost to Arsenal's attack.

Do Arsenal's hopes depend on Saka?

That being said, Arsenal could do with every goal they can get. And Bukayo Saka's return date could be a pivotal part of the Gunners' remaining season.

Noni Madueke's lack of form and fitness has shown there is a gulf in class between him and Arsenal's No 7. Madueke has just two Premier League goals in 22 outings.

And if Odegaard and Havertz are going to form a key part of Arsenal's attack, then Saka would be another boost with title sway. The last time all three started a match for Arsenal was December 21, 2024 - when Arsenal romped to a 5-1 win away at Crystal Palace.

Those are the type of compelling results Arsenal need from here.

What if Rodri is missing for City?

To temper City's optimism with a dose of reality, Rodri limped out of Sunday's game in the 88th minute. Guardiola revealed in his press conference that the Spanish midfielder has suffered a groin problem.

Any damage to Rodri does damage to City's title hopes.

This is a player who makes everyone around him function at full tilt. Without him, City's coherence with and without the ball falters. No one of a City persuasion will need reminding of the disaster that unfolded in his injury absence last season. It's unlikely he will be risked at Burnley on Wednesday, if deemed fit at all.

Lucky Gabriel gets to soldier on

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Dermot Gallagher and Jay Bothroyd discuss whether Gabriel should have been sent off during Arsenal's clash with Manchester City.

While Arsenal will be disheartened following Sunday's defeat, they will count themselves fortunate their situation is not worse. Had they lost Gabriel to a red card for a headbutt on Erling Haaland, and a subsequent three-match ban, then an isolated blip would have turned into a full blown crisis.

With Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori also out injured, Arsenal's defence would have been stretched, with Piero Hincapie needing to fill in alongside William Saliba - and Myles Lewis-Skelly needed at left-back.

Instead, Gabriel is available to play in the games against Newcastle, Fulham and West Ham. Has Haaland's honest lack of 'housery' actually boosted Arsenal's title chances?

What does it mean for Pep?

The final factor is Pep's undetermined future. Does he stay or does he go? Perhaps that can only be answered by the culmination of this season.

To bow out on the highest of highs will surely be his aim - if his mind is not already made up in either direction.

His legacy will not be decided by what happens over the next few weeks but it can be enhanced. Plenty believe this to be his last. If it is, he will not be leaving quietly. A final one over on his old pal Arteta might just seal the deal.