The $110 Billion Squeeze: How NFL’s Seismic Cash Grab Could Reshape TV

NFL media rights spend by platform (Photo Credit: Datawrapper)

“The NFL is usually the big dog in the room,” Lauren Anderson, Director, Warsaw Sports Business Center at the Lundquist College of Business at the University of Oregon, told TheWrap. “They know they can get more, so they’re looking to put the thumb on the scale and squeeze some people.”

But if the league’s partners play along, others will feel the squeeze. Increased media rights means that the NFL will take over more of these companies’ overall content budgets. That could curtail how much these five companies are spending on both scripted and unscripted entertainment as well as how much they’re investing in other, smaller sports leagues. At the same time, there’s a long history of increased corporate costs being passed down to consumers. If that happens, it will likely negatively impact the NFL’s younger fans — an audience that often isn’t as financially established as its older fans — as well as casual fans.

It’s unclear exactly how much more money the NFL wants, but the league reportedly wants to increase its deal with CBS by 50 to 60%. That would mean Paramount would go from paying $2.1 billion a year to around $3 billion. Every indication points to these media companies agreeing to these demands.

“The NFL is in an unmatched position of leverage heading into these renegotiations. Eighty-three of the 100 most-watched TV events last year were NFL games, and in a media landscape where everything else has fragmented, that kind of reach is irreplaceable,”Alicia Weaver, vice president of media activation at Mediassociates, told TheWrap.

It’s no secret that media rights for sports have gotten massively expensive over the past few years. Roughly 20% of Paramount Skydance’s $34 billion content spend is dedicated to sports, according to MoffettNathanson Research, and an estimated 27% of NBCUniversal’s $22.6 billion content spend is dedicated to sports. The Walt Disney Co. and Fox are even bigger investors with 40% and 63% of their respective content spends going to sports. It’s not just the broadcast networks. Streaming platforms are expected to spend $14.2 billion on sports rights in 2026, a 7% increase compared to last year.

While investing in sports has increased, investment in scripted and unscripted content has fallen. There were an estimated 493 series orders last year — a 35% decline from the amount of series that were ordered at the height of Peak TV in 2021. Part of that has to do with the lingering effects of the 2023 WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, the bursting of the streaming bubble and younger generations’ increased interest in shortform content. But it also has to do with an increased spend on sports rights. During a time when TV is struggling, the non-sports programming is seeing a smaller slice of the pie.

“The traditional broadcast model has been floundering for years with major networks battling streaming services and even developing their own streaming models to compete,” Jordan Matthews, an entertainment attorney at Holtz Matthews LLP, told TheWrap. “The sheer volume of content has exploded over the past 20 years, and the one ‘long-form’ type of content that has survived, and actually dominated, is live-sporting events with the NFL being the crown-jewel.”

“Is this a bubble that’s going to burst?” Anderson asked. “At some point, there is only so much that people can pay for these rights, and it’s going to tap out.”

Representatives for the NFL, ESPN, Paramount, Fox, NBCUniversal and Amazon did not respond to TheWrap’s request for comment. Representatives for ABC declined to comment.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers game (Photo Credit: Getty Images)

The NFL’s media rights battle, explained

This may all be David Ellison’s fault.

Last month, the NFL made it clear that it intends to renegotiate its deals as early as possible starting with Paramount Skydance. By enforcing a “change of control” clause in the contract, which was initiated thanks to David Ellison’s $8 billion takeover of Paramount last summer, this could start the ball rolling for the NFL to go knocking on the doors of the other major media players.

Any of the NFL’s current media partners can choose to ignore this current press for more money. After all, that’s what contracts are for. But not playing by the league’s rules may have negative consequences in the long run, namely what may happen when the NFL is able to opt out of its contracts with CBS, Fox and NBC after the 2029-2030 season. Adding to the pressure, major tech players like YouTube and Netflix already have NFL partnerships of their own, so FOMO is a factor. It’s a classic “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation.

But the NFL’s attempted renegotiation has also led to an investigation from the Department of Justice. The thinking from the department is that these increased rates will likely be passed along to the consumer, so the DOJ is trying to determine whether this constitutes an antitrust violation. Under the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961, the NFL is able to act as a single organization when it comes to its media rights.

“We’ve seen Fox publicly acknowledge that competition from the world’s most well-funded companies is forcing networks to pay more or risk being cut off entirely — that’s not a negotiating tactic, that’s a concession,” Weaver said. “Add in the fact that the NFL is sequencing deals one-by-one to prevent any coalition from forming, and it’s hard to see a scenario where the league doesn’t get exactly what it’s asking for.”

For its part, the NFL has pointed to the fact that 100% of its games have aired in the home markets of the competing teams and that, over the years, nearly 90% of its games throughout the season have aired on free-to-watch broadcast networks. Representatives for the league have also pointed out that the amended antitrust laws that currently govern the league are a good thing. Otherwise, all 32 teams would have their own unique media rights deal, which would likely increase consumer costs.

“Our contracts with ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC account for the distribution of more than 87% of all NFL games, a number that has varied little in the past two decades. This distribution model is good for our fans, for local television broadcasters, for our 32 clubs in small and large markets alike, and for the competitiveness of the game itself,” representative for the league wrote in a letter to the FCC.

Kristin Chenoweth and Monica Aldama in “Stumble.” (Matt Miller/NBC)

A blow to scripted entertainment

The main reason networks and streamers are so desperate to partner with a major sports league like the NFL is to reduce churn. In 2025, the major global streamers lost about $6.3 billion to churn, according to data from Parrot Analytics. When a network or streamer has a robust schedule of live sporting events, subscribers are less likely to cancel until the end of a season.

However, the value of a live sporting event is limited. There is little to no rewatch value for live sports; people watch these events when they’re happening, and then leave the network or streamer. The ideal mix for any streamer includes new original entertainment programming, library content that can be rewatched or syndicated and live sports. But as sporting rights increase, that mix becomes more difficult to balance. With its recent NBA deal, NBCUniversal is a great example of that particular headache.

“For the $2.5 billion NBCUniversal is paying the NBA, not including production costs, NBC could have produced 500 $5 million TV show episodes, or 25 seasons of 20-episode TV shows,” the Entertainment Strategy Guy wrote last year.

Chart showing number of scripted series ordered each year

NBCUniversal has maintained that it will continue to have a blend of entertainment and sports programming. But the network’s moves after cementing its NBA deal suggest securing the expensive sports staple has taken a toll. Last May, NBC canceled five shows — the same number of shows the network canceled during its 2023-24 and 2022-23 seasons combined. This season, NBC has renewed its safe bets, which include the “Chicago” universe as well as “Law & Order: SVU.” “Happy’s Place” and “St. Denis Medical” were also renewed. But “Brilliant Minds” and “Stumble” have both been axed ahead of the 2026-2027 fall season.

CBS has also been insistent on finding the balance between sports and entertainment. During a recent press conference about the network’s upcoming schedule, CBS News CEO George Cheeks echoed Ellison in saying that investing in content is “mission critical to the future of this company.”

“Sports rights are constantly going up regardless, so you fulfill that pressure consistently,” Cheeks said.

Chart showing number of unscripted series ordered each year

Though Disney hasn’t had early renewal conversations with the NFL yet, ESPN and ABC’s parent company has no plans to abandon the league, especially since ESPN purchased the NFL Network earlier this year.

“We’re always willing to have a conversation with the NFL in an effort to find new opportunities for growth,” Hugh Johnston, the chief financial officer for Disney said on Wednesday during the company’s second quarter earnings call for 2026. “We expect to be in the business with the league for years to come, and we’ll, of course, evaluate this deal as we would any deal with discipline and a focus on driving value for Disney shareholders.”

It’s less clear how increased spending on sports has impacted reality TV, which is cheaper to produce. Considering that spending on unscripted content has fallen in a similar way to the declining investment in scripted, it seems likely there will be an impact. At the end of the day, these companies are all working with one content budget.

“If you can be the network or streamer who has even a day of NFL games, you’re going to do it because it’s important and relevant to the consumer,” Anderson said.

Tage Thompson #72 of the Buffalo Sabres fires his second goal of the game against the New York Rangers during an NHL (Photo by Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images)

A shakeup of smaller sports leagues

Spending more on major leagues like the NFL and the NBA means that there is less money for the NFL’s media partners to spend on smaller leagues.

Those partnerships can prove to be invaluable. Last year, Apple signed a $150 million five-year deal with Formula One, which came about after the release of the Brad Pitt and Damson Idris movie “F1.” Senior Vice President Eddy Cue shared that viewership of the racing series has been “way up” this year compared to last. As for Netflix’s deal with the WWE, Parrot estimates that it has led to the streamer retaining 1.25 million subscribers globally every quarter, partly because it airs weekly with no offseason.

“We’re ramping up our sports events globally and locally, both in terms of volume and profile,” Co-CEO Ted Sarandos said during Netflix’s most recent earnings call. “We really do this because we bring a lot of value, we receive a lot of value but, most importantly, our members receive a lot of value.”

“It should be that a rising tide lifts all boats,” Anderson said. “But where it really puts the squeeze is on some of the smaller properties or upcoming sports.”

While the NFL’s current media partners may find themselves unable to gamble on building fan bases around smaller sporting leagues, this could end up having a surprising effect on the live sports marketplace overall.

Hypothetically, let’s say Disney decides it no longer makes financial sense to partner with the NHL. That could mean the NHL could move to another media partner like The CW, which now has over 800 hours of sports, or Netflix, which has aggressively increased its live sports strategy. Depending on the network or streamer and their planned investment in the property, the NHL could make more money from its media rights and reach a broader audience.

This reshuffling will likely be great for the tried-and-true leagues with dedicated fan bases like the Premier League or the WNBA. But leagues with less of a proven track record, like the Professional Bowlers Association or USA Track and Field, could lose their media partners in the changeup. As Netflix has proven with the WWE and The CW has proven with the Savannah Bananas, cultivating a relationship with smaller sporting events can lead to building a new audience on that platform.

But all that money going to the NFL or NBA means fewer of those opportunities get a chance to materialize.

Jay Cinco of Team J Balvin runs the ball during the Creator Flag Football Game (Photo Credit: Sean Ryan/AP Content Services for the NFL)

A cash grab that may harm the NFL’s own future

This increase may also hurt the league’s own fan base.

The average person has a limited budget they’re willing to spend on watching NFL games. The average loyal sports fan spends about $1,600 a year supporting their favorite team, according to Ally Financial. This figure doesn’t account for the cost of traveling to out-of-town games. To watch every single game during the 2025 season it cost around $765. That cost could be considerably cheaper if you happen to live in the market of your favorite team or if you only limited yourself to YouTube TV’s NFL Sunday Ticket, which is $378 for returning subscribers in addition to a YouTube TV subscription of $83, an option that does mean you will be missing some games.

But it isn’t just at-home viewing that’s expensive. The average cost of an NFL ticket has tripled between 2015 and 2025, according to ticketing platform Gametime.

Often when media rights increase, consumer costs increase. Last July, Peacock increased its prices by $3 a month ahead of its Olympics, NBA and Super Bowl trifecta in February, and Netflix increased its prices in March following increased investments in live events, sports and podcasts. Those increased costs are especially brutal for younger and more casual fans, who often don’t have as much money as older fans or as much interest in their team as diehards. And those are the exact two demographics the NFL has been trying to court.

“The NFL is built on the back of working America,” Anderson said, noting that Gen Z in particular has so many vying for their attention. “There’s so many other choices. Do they care as much as older generations do? If you make it too hard and too expensive, are people just going to catch the highlights on ESPN or YouTube? Then your long term growth is really a problem.”

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