The Breakdown | Frontrunners’ defeats hint at twists and turns to come in Prem Rugby finale

There are small but significant moments in every league campaign. Until the weekend it was widely assumed that Northampton and Bath, the two frontrunners in the English Prem, were all but nailed on for home semi-finals and, by extension, would almost certainly meet in the grand final at Allianz Stadium in Twickenham on 20 June.

That could still happen but, suddenly, others are entering the chat. Not only did Saints and Bath lose at the weekend but both were well beaten, 41-17 by Leicester and 35-12 by Exeter respectively. Bath, including their Champions Cup semi-final in Bordeaux, have lost three games on the trot. Northampton were not so much batted aside by the Tigers as unceremoniously flattened.

A deeper dive into the historical stats also unearths some interesting nuggets. The last time Bath lost two consecutive league games under Johann van Graan was in October 2023, when a clutch of players were at the World Cup in France. Northampton, meanwhile, have never conceded as many points away against their East Midlands rivals’ as they did on Saturday. The burning question is whether all this is just a blip, or an indicator of something deeper?

In that regard Northampton fans will hope their director of rugby, Phil Dowson, was correct after the game. “We’ve got to be careful of over-egging it because it’s only the second game we’ve lost this season,” he said. “While we’ve got to make sure we don’t take it lightly, we also have to ensure we don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.” Give or take the mixed metaphors it is a fair point: Saints will cement a playoff place if they beat Bristol Bears at Franklin’s Gardens on Friday and have eminently winnable fixtures against Gloucester and Harlequins in the remaining two rounds.

Bath, on the face of it, also remain in a decent position. Bottom-placed Newcastle will head to the Rec this weekend and, should Bristol lose in the East Midlands, victory over the stumbling Red Bulls should deliver a top-four finish. “Never too high, never too low,” as Van Graan keeps reminding all and sundry on a weekly basis.

That said, those weekend results have slightly tweaked the psychology around the run-in. Northampton may have the league’s slickest attack but injuries have been nibbling away at their squad depth and the defence has been increasingly porous. Saints have shipped an average of more than 35 points in their past three league games?

Leicester, furthermore, will not be the slightest bit apprehensive if they end up facing their old rivals again, having just put six tries past a Saints side containing a fair sprinkling of England players. As with Michael Cheika last season, Geoff Parling has done a fine job from virtually a standing start and the Tigers seem to be gathering momentum at the right time.