Nolan Gorman of the St. Louis Cardinals is struggling with an 89 wRC+ and high strikeout rate, raising questions about his long-term viability as a third baseman. Despite defensive improvements, his offensive output remains below expectations, particularly against changeups.
Key points
Nolan Gorman has an 89 wRC+ and a 28.8% strikeout rate.
He is in the 84th percentile for defensive value among big leaguers.
Gorman is struggling against changeups, facing them over 20% of the time.
His offensive output is below expectations despite his defensive improvements.
The Cardinals are questioning Gorman's long-term viability as a third baseman.
St. Louis Cardinals
PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 28: Nolan Gorman #16 of the St. Louis Cardinals is congratulated after hitting a home run during the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on Tuesday, April 28, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rayni Shiring/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 28: Nolan Gorman #16 of the St. Louis Cardinals is congratulated after hitting a home run during the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on Tuesday, April 28, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rayni Shiring/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Nolan Gorman has been a long term project in the Cardinals franchise with some obvious upside. The obvious upside, of course, is the fact that when he makes good contact you could build a statue of his pose and the homerun. If you put a Gorman bomb up against a sunset, you might actually watch the Gorman bomb. Fans that have watched for any amount of time know that those statue-esque shots have not been coming often enough in the last few years.
The calendar has ticked by into mid-May and Gorman is running an 89 wRC+. Heās been more valuable than one might think because of a pleasant development on defense. There are games, and I canāt believe Iām going to say this, that he looks like he may be hanging out with the ghost of Nolan Arenado at third base to guide him. Heās currently in the 84th percentile in defensive value for all big leaguers. And, while defensive stats can notoriously flutter during a season, the eye test tells you heās .
The purpose of this article is not to suggest that Nolan Gorman is a disaster. Heās not. Heās accumulated 0.4 fWAR thus far. While thatās not what anyone hoped for his value coming into the season, heād end up at a passable 1.6 fWAR for the season at this pace. Thatās playable, if disappointing. The bigger question comes if he remains Nolan Gorman, defensive specialist at the end of the year. The offensive rebuild clearly has four building blocks of varying degrees in Walker, Herrera, Wetherholt, and Burleson. Winn has been fairly good as well and his defense at short is going to keep him around for a while at a minimum.
Can you run a below average offensive third baseman long term if your goal is to compete for titles? The answer obviously comes with a multiplicity of variables around Gorman, but itās not a strong case. So, whatās Gorman been doing this year to be stuck at his 89 wRC+? Itās a tale as old as time (well, as old as Gormanās career anyway).
In short, Gorman is whiffing too much, but not providing enough power to offset his swing and miss game. Heās striking out 28.8% of the time, which is actually down a hair so far from his career high of 33.8% of the time last season. Can you be successful striking out at this rate? Well, let me introduce you to a gentleman named who is striking out 28.4% of the time this season. So, the obvious answer is yes you can be successful, *but you have to capitalize on your power at a healthy rate.*
This is the perplexing part of Gormanās game. The foundation for power is there. Statcast has him in the 94th percentile for Launch Angle Sweet Spot. Essentially, heās launching the ball at an angle that *should* be doing damage. This stat tends not to be very predictive, but Statcast has tracked him at the very top of baseball in this metric his entire career. In other words, his swing shape produces the right angle of contact for big damage.
So if the K% isnāt great but also doesnāt *prohibit* him from being valuable offensively and his swing shape is producing the right kind of contact, whereās the hangup? Heās pulling the ball more than ever, hitting line drives and flyballs at career norms, so many of the normal sources arenāt much different than his career averages. What is different is how heās currently handling changeups. The league has an obvious attack pattern and is exploiting it to the max.
Nolan Gorman is facing changeups over 20% of the time. Thatās double his career averages, and has a ghastly -5.2 run value on them according to Fangraphs. For all his Launch Angle Sweet Spot brilliance, Gorman is only squaring up pitches in the 15th percentile and producing slightly below league average exit velos. The Cardinals have vastly limited his at bats against lefties this year, but righties are getting ahead of him and finishing him off with changeups that heās just not handling well.
The Faustian bargain with players like Gorman is that their whiffs will be offset by prodigious damage on pitches they do handle (see Jordan Walker again). At this moment, Gorman is not holding up his end of that bargain and pitchers have found a weakness that they are currently maxing out in their pursuit of securing outs from Nolan Gorman.
Because whiffs will always be his chokepoint on offense, Gorman is already operating with a ceiling on his capability. This is not new. To put a fine point on the end of this article though, how much longer will the Cardinals stick with him at these production rates? Heās accrued over 2000 PA at the MLB level and is 1% below league average at a 99 wRC+. This is, once again, not a crisis point, and thereās no one at his position that is beating down the door to (can Blaze Jordan be credible over there??). So, theyāre unlikely to make a move in the immediate future.
But, Gorman has done nothing to disabuse the notion that heās *not* a core piece going forward. He has time to adjust this season, but I think itās fair to ask at this point if heās capable of adjusting to the level that the Cardinals need him to adjust. Hitting is extremely difficult, but if Nolan Gorman is going to stick around, he needs to start handling changeups better.
So, letās hear it. What do the Cardinals do if Gorman continues producing offensively at this rate for the rest of the year? Thanks for reading!
Q&A
What is Nolan Gorman's current wRC+ and strikeout rate?
Nolan Gorman has an 89 wRC+ and is striking out 28.8% of the time this season.
How has Nolan Gorman's defense improved this season?
Gorman is currently in the 84th percentile in defensive value, showing significant improvement in his defensive skills.
What challenges is Nolan Gorman facing with changeups?
Gorman is facing changeups over 20% of the time, which is double his career average, and has a -5.2 run value against them.
What impact does Nolan Gorman's performance have on the Cardinals' future?
Gorman's below-average offensive production raises concerns about his long-term role with the Cardinals as they aim to compete for titles.
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