While the saying is “hindsight is 20/20” the lack of offensive potential in left field was always staring the Cardinals in the face, especially with Lars Nootbaar being questionable as usual to man the grass. Chaim Bloom mentioned multiple times over the offseason that they were looking for veteran help in the outfield, but that came after the trade of Willson Contreras to Boston. Yes, I am a big Contreras fan, but the trade had bigger implications for the lineup than just my sadness. Even at the time of the deal, I mentioned either here or one of the other five outlets you can find me at, that the trade made sense but it was done too early. The return was solid, yes, with Bloom taking Hunter Dobbins, Blake Aita, and Yhoiker Fajardo from the Red Sox, but I will be left wondering how that return would differ if Bloom waited just a tick (or a few months) longer.
Why does this matter to me? Because Nelson Velazquez, Nathan Church, Jose Fermin, and Thomas Saggese were almost certainly not going to be the answers out there for this year or beyond. Lars Nootbaar has always been seen as more likely to be traded than extended. Joshua Baez made his mark in spring, but a quick promotion was not going to happen, and thank goodness it did not with Baez’ early season struggles. Imagine the Oli/Bloom outcry if they “broke” Baez just weeks after those same fans clamored for him in the lineup. Anyway.
I know winning is not priority number one, but having gotten to talk with Oli and how he carries himself, you know he wants to end up in the win column as often as possible. Last season, he was very outspoken about the lack of bullpen reinforcements he was provided by John Mozeliak, and while he has not been public this year about it, I can imagine the deep sigh that comes out every day when he has to fill in the lineup with one of those left field options. Whenever I see those lineups pop up, I know I am already crossing my fingers hoping for an accidental outburst like Church’s three-hit performance the other day, and that is not a fun way to watch a game. Remember Michael Siani?
That brings me to Mr. Consistent. The veteran. The clubhouse leader. Whatever role you want to throw on him this year. Alec Burleson was there, staring the team right in the face, and was an easy, temporary option for the outfield that did not block a single person in the organization. The last part was my main gripe. Nobody in Triple-A was banging down the door at either first base or left field. Some may argue Church or the fact that the only way to get Saggese in the lineup is in the outfield, but was that ever really an exciting future? I admit to being high on Saggese because of his Texas League MVP, however, it does not seem like the organization is as bought in to that performance as I was. The Burly solution I thought seemed clear. Allow Burleson to stand in left field, drive in runs and hit .275+ until either a.) Lars Nootbaar was healthy for a return or b.) the Trade Deadline when Contreras would be dealt, then moving Burleson to first base full-time. Take a second and just see how that also would impact the lineup. The whole alignment changes for the better. And to me, “the better” is winning baseball games.
Burleson standing in the grass for half of his games is of no detriment to the long-term outlook of the organization. The only downside I can see (and I’m sure you’ll all point out many, many more in the comments) is that the return for Contreras at the deadline could have differed and Bloom may have gotten less MLB-ready talent back. Or… he could have gotten more. We’ll never know. Burly and Contreras being around would allow for that fire and leadership we loved during Willy’s short time in The Lou, while again not impacting the minor leagues whatsoever. Mayyybe one of Saggese or Fermin is in Memphis instead, but so be it. If anything, the positive impact of both veterans would heavily outweigh any lesser returns or “lost” playing time for Church, Saggese, or Fermin. I seem to hear that players need to learn how to win at the major league level pretty often, and a lineup feature Burly and Contreras seems to have more winning potential than what we have seen on a daily basis thus far.
Through the first 19 games of the year, Cardinals left fielders have a -0.2 fWAR, along with the fifth-highest stirkeout rate and 25th-best walk rate. The group’s wRC+ sits at a 55, and the .546 OPS is fourth-worst in baseball. For comparison’s sake, Burleson has a 0.4 fWAR, 132 wRC+, and .819 OPS. Oh and Contreras? Thanks to showing us what he can still do while Boston was in town, the former Cardinal has a 1.0 fWAR, 161 wRC+, and .901 OPS. Not sure about you, but that seems much more fun to watch.
The main problem was that Contreras did not fit the Cardinals’ timeline back to contention, but my biggest gripe with that argument is that none of the other options that have currently been manning the outfield fit that timeline either. While the old saying for the playoffs is “just get in”, the expansion of the playoff teams makes those final Wild Card teams face a major uphill battle to extend their postseason run. The inclusion of Contreras for a couple extra months would not hinder St. Louis’ push towards a rebuild, but looking at the rest of the NL Central, this team would have been able to hang on and create some fun conversations during the summer. Attendance is going to continue to be a talking point for the entire season, but it is hard to argue that fans would prefer to see Willson being a mentor for the “yungry” squad rather than a cycle of quiet prospects hoping to extend their stay in the lineup for a week at a time.
I like to think that this will be my last reference to Willson Contreras’ departure and what could have been a much more potent lineup. Of course, my fandom wants to see the Cardinals go 162-0, but I am also understanding of the needed change of course towards the future. Because of this, I was completely on board with the deals surrounding Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, and even Brendan Donovan, but seeing Contreras go just seemed a little too quick, in my opinion. For those Donovan fans, you could also convince me that you would rather keep Donnie over Willson, but Donovan is one where I think Bloom did need to capitalize on his value this offseason, rather than play the wait-and-see game during the season.
To be honest, I am not really sure what I was trying to get at with the article this week. While the offseason activity was fun and a great change of pace from previous leadership, it is disappointing to see that a clear soft spot in the roster that was not the bullpen was not addressed. Whether it was because cost or the inability to offer a starting spot (which is still crazy to me with the obvious Nootbaar injury), left field is going to be a talking point unless Baez or another minor leaguer takes off and forces the issue.
Thanks as always!
