The HUGE impact Aston Villa vs Liverpool could have on five clubs' European hopes
TL;DR
Aston Villa and Liverpool's match on Friday night could significantly impact the European aspirations of five clubs. Both teams are vying for Champions League spots but face pressure from their closest challengers after a poor run of form.
Key points
- Aston Villa and Liverpool are level on points.
- Both teams need to finish in the top five for Champions League qualification.
- They have one win from their last six matches combined.
- Aston Villa faces a tough run-in against Liverpool and Manchester City.
- Villa could miss out on the top five after previously being three points off the top.
Aston Villa have their own Champions League hopes to worry about but when they face Liverpool on Friday night, live on Sky Sports, both teams could yet have a major effect on the fortunes of others in the race for Europe next season.
Villa and Liverpool sit level on points and will secure their Champions League spots if they finish in the top five. However, their respective cushions to their closest challengers has been hit by a run of one win from their last six combined - and could be further reduced to a single point by the end of the weekend.
From Villa's point of view, a tough run-in against two of the four teams ahead of them in Liverpool on Friday and a trip to Manchester City on the final day, there is a growing possibility the club who sat three points off the top shortly before the turn of the year could miss out on the top five altogether.
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Aston Villa were held to a draw by relegated Burnley as their poor form continued last weekend
They do have a second chance at qualifying, though and should they win the Europa League final against Freiburg on Wednesday, they can rest easy regardless of their league results.
But the likes of Bournemouth, Brighton and Brentford - who according to Opta, have the most realistic chance of finishing in the top six - all have a vested interest in Villa's success too.
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If, and only if, Villa return from Istanbul next week with the Europa League trophy and go on to finish fifth, the qualifying spot reserved for that position will pass down to the team finishing sixth.
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That would open the door to one of the trio, none of whom have ever played Champions League football - or in the cases of Bournemouth and Brentford, any European football whatsoever.
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However, if Villa win the Europa League and jump above Liverpool into fourth, which will become a far more realistic proposition if they beat them on Friday Night Football, it will just be the top five teams in the Premier League that qualify for the Champions League.
Here we go again?
Aston Villa would have already been in the Champions League this season but for a controversial final-day defeat at Manchester United last season.
Emery's side saw Morgan Rogers' opener ruled out in that game when he was judged to have kicked the ball out of Altay Bayindir's hands - with VAR unable to overrule as the referee's whistle had already gone.
United went on to score two late goals which left Villa sitting sixth, with only goal difference separating them from fifth-placed Newcastle and a place at the top table of European competition.
Will they be pipped at the post again? Villa had a 10-point cushion inside the top five as recently as mid-April and looked certain to qualify for the Champions League on league position - but their recent form has made that anything but a certainty going into Friday Night Football.
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A final-day conundrum?
Depending on what happens with Villa on Friday, and in Istanbul next week, there is a possibility that Champions League hopefuls Brentford and Brighton may prefer to LOSE on the final day.
Brentford's last fixture is at Liverpool. If Brentford are sixth by then and Villa are Europa League champions, a Liverpool win may help ensure they finish fifth.
Brighton are home to Manchester United and, if in sixth spot going into the final day, and if United have allowed Villa and Liverpool to close the gap on them, the Seagulls would also benefit from ensuring United remain above Villa in the table.
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Q&A
How could Aston Villa vs Liverpool affect Champions League qualification?
The match could determine the Champions League spots for both teams and influence the standings of several other clubs in the race for Europe.
What is the current form of Aston Villa and Liverpool?
Both teams have struggled recently, with only one win combined from their last six matches, putting their Champions League hopes at risk.
Which clubs are impacted by the Aston Villa vs Liverpool match?
The match could affect the European hopes of five clubs competing for top five positions in the league.
What are Aston Villa's remaining fixtures after facing Liverpool?
After facing Liverpool, Aston Villa will play Manchester City on the final day of the season, which could further impact their Champions League chances.
