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The nightmare Maple Leafs draft pick scenario with Bruins no one is talking about
TL;DR
The Toronto Maple Leafs' 2026 NHL Draft pick is top-five protected, meaning if it falls outside the top five, it goes to the Boston Bruins. However, if it lands in the top five, the Bruins will still receive a pick, just not until a later year.
Key points
- Maple Leafs' 2026 draft pick is top-five protected
- If outside top five, pick goes to Bruins
- 44% chance pick falls in top five
- Bruins still receive a pick if in top five
- Situation has not been widely discussed
Brandon CarloToronto Maple LeafsBoston Bruins
The nightmare Maple Leafs draft pick scenario with Bruins no one is talking about originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
It's been easy to focus on the Toronto Maple Leafs' first-round pick in the 2026 NHL Draft that is top-five protected.
If it falls outside the first five picks, it goes to the Boston Bruins as part of last year's Brandon Carlo trade.
Except wait a second -- if it ends up in the top-five, which has about a 44% chance in the lottery -- the Bruins still get a pick. It's just not this year.
And that's something no one has really talked about.
The Maple Leafs, if they keep their pick in 2026, convey an unprotected 2027 first-rounder to Boston.
The hope, of course, is that it'll be later in the first round after Toronto has a bounceback season.
But what about the nightmare season where they don't?
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They might not want to enter into a rebuild, even if it gets ugly, because next year's first-rounder would then be going to Boston no matter what.
There's at least a case that losing their pick this year isn't the absolute worst-case scenario.
The absolute worst-case outcome is keeping the pick this year, being even worse next year and giving Boston a pick in the top couple spots of the draft.
Is that likely? Not really. The Maple Leafs have too much talent to be that bad... right?
Well, this season showed maybe anything is possible.
Q&A
What happens to the Maple Leafs' 2026 draft pick if it is a top-five selection?
If the Maple Leafs' 2026 draft pick is a top-five selection, the pick will not go to the Bruins this year but will still be transferred to them in a future draft.
What is the probability of the Maple Leafs' draft pick falling in the top five?
There is approximately a 44% chance that the Maple Leafs' draft pick will fall within the top five in the lottery.
Why is the Maple Leafs' draft pick situation with the Bruins significant?
The situation is significant because it could impact the Maple Leafs' future draft strategy and their ability to rebuild or strengthen their roster.