The Path Forward: Step 3, What To Do With The Roster

That brings me to my last blog in this 3-part series: the on-ice product. I do believe there is a winning group largely in tact and it just needs to be supplemented and rebalanced. The thing I keep coming back to, mostly in frustration, is that we have seen that top gear when everything is clicking and it’s a thing of beauty. Unfortunately, it has been too inconsistent period to period and game to game. Their play was great early, a .635 / 104 pt pace though the first 25 games and pretty good post-Olympics, a .580 win pct / 95 pt pace through the last 25. That is 50 games at a 100 point pace – a top 10 team in the league.

The primary thing the Devils need to do is find about a half goal a game more next season, jumping from 2.8 and 226 total goals to 3.3 and 270ish total goals. That may seem a little bleak, but they were averaging 3.4 in the 25 games after the Olympic break and 3.1 in the first 25 games. Defensively they need less work, only needing to shave about .2 GA/G, as they were at 3.1 and top 10 is 2.9.

Hockey is a sport where nothing happens in isolation and is very much a weak link sport. If one guy isn’t pulling their weight it drags everything down, incrementally, over the course of a one shift, then shift to shift, period to period, the game, the week, the month, and eventually the season. One of Fitz’s failures was putting this team in a position where several weak links were getting significant playing time. We also had a significant amount of drama this season, from fall injuries (highlighted by Jack’s steakhouse mishap), the Quinn Hughes trade drama, the Dougie benching and Fitz’s subsequent “business of our lineup” comments.. We were a full blown soap opera and not a month went by without some nonsense going on. Several pundits continue to pour gasoline on the Quinn drama, speculating it caused a rift in the locker room – and until he makes his decision whether to extend in Minnesota that won’t go away.

As I tend to do, I am getting ahead of myself by taking a look at the state of the 26-27 positional groups. There are a ton of moving pieces in this puzzle, NMC/NTCs to navigate, extension eligible players, a nebulous trade market, and a draft lottery to get through. I have high expectations for Mehta but we also need to be realistic about what can actually be accomplished in one off-season. One thing that I think everyone needs to keep in mind is the rising cap environment, and we may be seeing some numbers that initially seem larger than what we are used to. In 3 short years it is projected to be $123MM, a $28MM increase from 25-26, nearly 30%. Big extensions are going to be 8 figures and 4th liners might crack $1.5MM/$2MM. What this also does is teams will no longer need to trade for cap reasons like they have over the past decade.

The Forward Group

Here is what we are looking at in terms of current contracts for 26-27 and 27-28 via Puckpedia:

Priority 1: Nico Hischier

I am putting my stake in the ground on Nico, we absolutely need to re-sign him. There is no other better 2C option in the league, and more than half the league has major center holes. He’s the King in our Ace/King hole cards – and yes, he is our 2C (Jack TOI/G: 21:18 and Nico TOI/G: 20:48).

If you don’t agree with me, go take a stroll through league wide depth charts – The Devils have a top 3 1-2 center punch in the league and you build around that, not make it worse; You win hockey games down the middle and we FINALLY have 4 viable, properly slotted centers after we added Bjugstad.

However, what Nico wants to do is obviously a factor here. I don’t see a world where he doesn’t want to stay, and in his exit interview he very clearly said he “wants to win a cup in New Jersey.” But if there is any indication he doesn’t want to stay we absolutely need to find the back up plan. This was another thing FGMTF never seemed to be able to do: have a viable backup plan. And to be blunt, if Nico doesn’t think he can be part of the solution – then absolutely trade him, because that’s a major red flag. Would Larkin become available after Detroit’s playoff futility hit 10 years? Is Robert Thomas actually available? Mason McTavish has been rumored to be on the outs with Anaheim or is Seattle going to blow it up and make McCann or Wright available? What about Toronto – will Matthews suddenly be on the market?

In terms of his contract extension there are three comparable deals in Larkin, Sebastian Aho in Carolina, and Roope Hintz in Dallas. All three are in the 10-11% range of the salary cap which puts Nico’s deal in the $11-11.5MM range starting in 27-28. One other thing to keep in mind is Nico can only take an 8-year deal from the Devils through September 16th, after that extensions can be max 7 years.

I see him singing an 8-year, $11MM extension this summer.

Priority 2: Arseny Gritsyuk

I don’t think I’m going out on a limb here saying Gritsyuk was basically everyone’s favorite new player. If he wasn’t, why are you the way that you are? The moment I knew we had something here was this goal against Pittsburgh, just an effort masterclass for his 3rd of the season:

If that one wasn’t good enough for you, how about this one:

Anyway, Grits is awesome and was a breath of fresh air – whether it was his bubbly personality via Telegram, his stint with Meta glasses, he was everything we’d hoped for and more. While his stat line didn’t totally pop (13g, 18a for 31p in 66g) I think we all see the well rounded game and his underlyings are fantastic. I was particularly impressed with his sound defensive game and his forechecking, and of course his shot came as advertised. Also, don’t discount his progress with learning English, as by season’s end he didn’t need a translator (mostly).

AFP Analytics pegs two versions of his deal: 5 years x $6.58MM for a longer term deal and 2 years x $3.55MM for a shorter term. I’d think a longer deal would come in more around $5.5MM-$6MM per year for 5 years. One thing to keep in mind is he is already 25, so the 5 years sounds more like a perfect deal to me. Note he is NOT offer sheet eligible, we fully control his rights although arbitration is an option (more on this below).

The question then becomes deployment – is he up for a top 6 role or best served as a 3rd line wing where he played a large part of the season? That is for Sunny and Keefe (or mystery coach) to discuss but the Gritsyuk-Glass-Hameenaho line is a potentially excellent 3rd line.

I see him signing a 5 year, $5.75MM deal this summer.

Priority 3: Top 6 Wing (Or Additional C/W Combo)

I still firmly believe the path forward includes supplementing the current forward group and not swapping out pieces. We have had a solid top 4, but the 5th and 6th players could use upgrades. Is that Gritsyuk? Does Connor Brown stay with Jack and Bratt? Can Timo re-find his 30+ goal magic or should they try and get him to waive as Gerard suggested?

There are definitely some moving pieces, and it’s probably too early to tell what players would actually be available. But as of now, I am looking at Toronto, St. Louis, and Seattle as early favorites to blow things up. Does that mean Knies/Matthews, McCann/Wright, and Kyrou/Thomas actually become available? Is a certain guy in Ottawa going to ask out? Is Nashville going to make changes as their core group sunsets? What about guys like Mavrik Borque in Dallas who could be the odd man out with Robertson’s new extension? LA might be a dark horse to make some big changes as well, how do we feel about Fiala or Byfield? What we CANNOT do is break the bank for a 30+ year old UFA (like Tuch or Mantha).

All of those options would be trades, so who/what should be on the block? All of our picks should be, including our 1st this draft (unless we miraculously move up to 2nd). I wouldn’t rule out pick swaps if we fall into the 3rd-7th pick with all the defensemen projected in the top 10 – and more picks means re-filling a barren cupboard of prospects. Mercer and Nemec are also still attractive pieces in a trade, is there a package that works for any of the above mentioned players?

At minimum we should be picking up at least one tried and true top six option.

Priority 4: 4th line Needs Work / Clear Some Money off the Books

Some of Florida’s best work, and by extension Mehta’s, was finding cheap effective 4th liners. I don’t see Dadonov being around next year, so the two NHL decisions he will have to make are on Paul Cotter who is an RFA and Zack MacEwen who is a UFA. Cotter has been outscored 82-44 in his two years here at 5v5 and inexplicably his AFP contract projection is 2 x $2.5MM. That’s insane. I would like to see more of MacEwen who has a projection of $850k for 1 year, which is much more palatable. At the AHL/NHL swing level Halonen is also a UFA. Are there better under the radar options out there, like UFA A.J. Greer, who was on Sunny’s teams in Florida? Does Crookshank get a longer look, or maybe another Comet pops in camp?

Two guys that I think should be off-loaded for cap space are Tsyplakov and Noesen. Saying goodbye to the former should be easy, thank you for your service helping us get out of Palat. Noesen, on the other hand, is a well liked veteran leader but unfortunately his cap hit is more valuable distributed in other places. Combined, this will free up nearly $5MM.

Hey By The Way, Cody Glass is Extension Eligible Too

This isn’t as urgent, and can likely be settled sometime throughout the season, but pure centers are hard to come by (see: last offseason with Cody Glass). He has one more year at $2.5MM, but will be eligible to sign an extension starting July 1st, so something to keep an eye on. One thing I do want to note, he shot 18% this season, nearly double his career 10%, so expecting similar production might be a stretch, but he was a perfect depth scoring 3C with immaculate defensive metrics and was 54% in the dot. He was also pretty clutch with his scoring: 18 of his 19 goals came at 5v5, 12 of which came in games within one goal, and 9 came while tied. That’s pretty good.

What SHOULD happen is Cody getting trusted in tougher matchups to free up Nico. It was well publicized that Nico had over 1000 faceoff wins, which is an obscene number and in reality not a good thing. I can see a world where Glass gets a bigger share of those, particularly in the defensive zone where Nico had over 150 more defensive zone starts and 100 more neutral zone starts this past season. I’d also like to see Cody take some of the PK burden off Nico as well, and frankly Nico isn’t a great PK player (worst forward on the team by xGA).

Well I certainly just wrote more than I expected about Glass, so what does his deal look like? Jackson touched on this in March, pegging him around 4-5% of the cap or $4.5MM (ish) starting in 27-28. Works for me.

The Defensive Group

Here is what we are looking at for 3 years on the defensive end also via Puckpedia:

This is where we really need some rebalancing as this group was the one of the most expensive defensive corps in the league, and one of the least productive. By virtue of development, that should improve (hopefully) naturally. We have far too many defense first / defense only guys that make too much money for the role they provide. One of the Devils biggest issues was zone exits, neutral zone defense, and puck moving from the back end.

As opposed to priorities I see this more as choices between 4 guys. I don’t see Pesce, Kovacevic, and Luke going anywhere.

Choice 1: Dougie or Nemec (or Door Number 3)

Stop me if you’ve heard this, but we have too many RDs. With Pesce and Kovacevic staying, that leaves a significant choice. Fitz really made a mess of this:

As of now, Dougie is the better player by far. He obviously has his warts: he’s a 6’6” teddy bear with zero mean streak, has terrible 4-way agility, takes brutal penalties, and will be 33 in 2 months. Make no mistake, though – he is the closest thing we had to a 1D in 2025-26, particularly after he was benched where he had 29 points in 37 games and was 4th on the team in scoring. However, his time here has come to an end, and Sunny seems to be the type to understand that selling high(ish) on him will be the best choice. He has a bonus due to him on July 1st that makes his real salary palatable for an acquiring team, so the time to move him is this summer. I don’t expect a major asset coming back and he certainly is not a cap dump – he could be valuable in a package or for additional assets that can be flipped for our top 6 needs.

Speaking of top 6 needs, Nemec continues to be our number one asset to make this type of acquisition. A young offensive RD is a premium piece to teams, I just hope he hasn’t tanked his value too much with his play down the stretch. He had some good moments and needs to bring that more consistently. His AFP analytics contract projections sit at 7 years at $8.3MM for a long term deal, or 2 years at $4.3MM and there were rumors that he was “asking for Luke money.” That’s crazy talk, he is not even close to Luke and does not deserve that. If Sunny does sign him, I see it more of a 1-2 year prove it type of deal, give him the keys to PP2, a ton of ice time and let him grow. There is a reason he thrives in the Olympics, he needs big minutes and to have his path and role clear.

Door number 3: Dougie is traded for picks/prospect help and Nemec is dealt for top 6 help. That leaves a hole that needs to be filled. Is Casey ready to make that jump? Does Silayev come over and impress, leaving us with an unbalanced back end (4L / 2R)? Is there an undervalued trade out there, or a UFA like Blankenburg or Raddysh? Yoda voice: ponder this, Sunny will.

Choice 2: Siegs or Dillon

In my opinion, I also see a major choice between Siegenthaler and Dillon on the left side.

As painful as it may be, one of these two should be on the way out. Do we go with the locker room leader with emotional fire? Or the stoic stalwart with the B-movie villain goatee who is lowkey mean in his own right? If it came down to it I would lean toward keeping Siegs: he is 7 years younger, cheaper ($3.4MM vs $4MM) and just a flat out better player, and they have identical 10-team trade protection. I’d also bank on him having a bounce back year as his bi-polar career arc continues, and with Kovacevic likely staying by virtue of his NMC, can we reunite our lockdown pair freeing up Nemec and Luke? On the other hand, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Dillon was one of the players at Mehta’s press conference, albeit dressed like an “importer” from Miami, so keeping both for another year is not a terrible option because clearly he is a valued locker room presence.

If one does go, could Colton White, or even Ethan Edwards make the jump into that 3rd pair role? I do expect Silayev to sign his ELC (priority number 6 or 7), will he be ready? Or, as he did with Gus Forsling, Sunny could look to unearth a hidden gem or stop gap that has two way ability, excellent four way mobility, and a cheaper contract? Not to mention Quinn will be looming.

The Goalies

And here we are with the goalies through 27-28 via PuckPedia:

oh and by the way, we also have this little situation in the AHL:

The elephant int he room is Markstrom, who’s extension kicks in July 1st, and while it may seem unmovable, here is a path to a Markstrom buyout as Jared laid out in the AATJ Feed:

“Markstrom’s contract does not start until July 1 so it could only be bought out in the second window (this offseason)”

In short, the Devils can not buyout Markstrom in the normal buyout window after this year’s Stanley Cup Final because his contract extension technically doesn’t begin until July 1st. The extension is considered to be a new contract. That said, the Devils would potentially get a second buyout window if an arbitration eligible player files and the case is either settled or awarded. This only applies to players who have a cap hit greater than $4M and were on the teams roster at the most recent trade deadline, both of which Markstrom qualifies. So theoretically, the Devils COULD buy out Markstrom after they settle their arbitration cases with Paul Cotter, Arseny Gritsyuk, Nico Daws, Dylan Wendt, Xavier Parent, Calen Addison, and Jakub Malek.

Aside from a buyout, there isn’t really a world where a Markstrom trade seems likely unless Sunny also spent time as a magician in Vegas. So, we just gotta hope that he was indeed injured and can get back to being average. I also don’t see a world where Allen gets the lion share of starts – he showed signs of slowing down the more work he got. HOWEVER, watching the playoffs, I can’t help but think a team like Buffalo might have a crunch coming in goal – would UPL or Lyon be made available? What is Detroit going to do with Cossa and Augustine in the system but blocked by Gibson?

I’m also curious what happens with Daws who is a controlled RFA. There was some smoke around him going to the KHL mid-season which never materialized, but does he want to be here anymore? He could become a viable backup in the league, and several teams would be in the market for one. Give Malek the keys to Utica and first call-up duties.

The most likely scenario is we run back Markstrom and Allen and just gotta hope it gets better.. as bad as it is hanging your hat on hoping two 35+ goalies get better. Even though Markstrom ranked 59th out of 68 goals who played more than 1000 minutes at GSAE with a -13.57, we were 18th in GA/G overall, largely balanced by Allen who was ranked 21st at +7.8. Further, while Markstrom’s .883 sv pct. looks terrible based on what we’ve been trained to historically expect, I do want to point out that league average was .896 and has been steadily declining for years. However, you will also see league average GAA declining as teams figure out a) that shot volume for shot volume’s sake is worthless and b) shot tracking is more heavily scrutinized and normalized across the league. Just a marginal improvement in Markstrom’s game and the same steadiness from Allen could put us into the top 10 in GA/G (less than 3).

Conclusion and Your Thoughts

Hockey is won on the margins, and those margins are razor thin. There is a winning group in here, we just need less drama, more consistency, health, additional scoring pop and to win on those margins. Seems like something that a poker player and trader, who also has one of the most impressive apprenticeships in the league, would be well suited to sort out.

I am fascinated about what Sunny is going to do and for now things seem a little brighter in Devil-land. How about you? Where do you think this team needs to go? Any fantasy or realistic trades you have in mind? Let’s hear them!

On a personal note, thank you for welcoming me into this forum this year. You guys are a fun, well informed corner of the Devils universe. I truly appreciate everyone who reads my ADHD, train of thought, oh look a cat writing and thoughtfully comment. I am very excited to move into year 2 and chop it up with all of you.

I will be adding blogs all summer, but if you’re a true sicko and interested in Devils content all summer, I am also part of The Uncle Puckers NJ Devils Podcast which can be found below. We try and crank out 2 shows a week, and are all very funny, and extremely handsome.

We are comfortably in the top 15 of the 10 or so Devils podcasts out there:

Youtube

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As a disclaimer, this is rated R and sometimes worse, so fair warning.

LGD