The questions that will decide the winner of a thrilling Raptors-Cavaliers series

Let’s dig in, shall we?

Can the Cavaliers get their pick-and-roll game going?

During the regular season, the Cavaliers were one of seven teams to generate at least one point per possession (1.01 PPP) on trips featuring a pick-and-roll. Filter for just the Harden Era (Feb. 7 onward) and that remains true, with a slight bump (1.02 PPP).

At their best in this series (the wins), the Cavaliers have been able to manipulate the matchups they want for Harden or Donovan Mitchell to face, then putting the Raptors in no-win situations with their collective skill level and spacing principles.

An early favorite for me was the Cavaliers spacing a shooter in a corner, and having them relocate to the wing during the drive so there would be no help present on the roller.

Mitchell was able to boogie his way into pull-ups and impressive drives; Harden put pressure on the Raptors with his drives and (late) playmaking. Even if the Raptors were able to handle the initial action, the Cavaliers did a good job of slowing into secondary attacks and winning later in the clock.

That has completely flipped during the last two games.

There have been loud lineup and matchup changes from the Raptors. They’ve upsized against the Cavaliers’ star backcourt: Ja’Kobe Walter replaced Jamal Shead ahead of Game 3 to assume the Mitchell assignment, while Scottie Barnes has increasingly spent more time on Harden.

The most notable downstream effect of Barnes guarding “down” the positional spectrum is RJ Barrett having to guard “up” in his place. He spent some time on Evan Mobley in Game 2 — that didn’t go well — but has largely assumed the Jarrett Allen assignment over the past two games.

That adjustment has taken the wind out of the sails of the Harden-Allen partnership. Allen set roughly 14 on-ball screens per game for Harden during the regular season; he set a total of 16 during the Raptors homestand.

With size on the guards and a wing on the Cavs’ most frequent on-ball screener, it’s become more of a chore to run their pet actions. In their worst moments, it’s been an absolute slog for the Cavaliers to generate anything positive.

On a quieter note, the Raptors have also dialed back their pickup points compared to earlier in the series. Instead of meeting (and attempting to pester) a ball-handler behind half-court — opening up some half-court screening and giving said-ball-handler a full head of steam — they’ve largely waited for those guys to cross half-court before ramping up their pressure.

Even when the Cavaliers have tried to tap into higher screens, the Raptors have done a better job of navigating and rotating.

Here’s the average pickup distance per game and the percentage of possessions there was a backcourt pickup from the Raptors, courtesy of Second Spectrum:

• Game 1: 45.3 feet, 15.5% of possessions
• Game 2: 40.8 feet, 11.3%
• Game 3: ~38 feet, 5.3%
• Game 4: 40.6 feet, 12.7%
• First two games: 43.1 feet, 13.4%
• Last two games: 39.3 feet, ~9%

Those adjustments, in addition to the Cavaliers’ off-the-dribble shooting falling off a cliff, has led to a massive dip in efficiency.

Here’s the game-by-game split of their pick-and-roll effectiveness:

• Game 1: 73 picks, 1.24 PPP
• Game 2: 81 picks, 1.14 PPP
• Game 3: 78 picks, 0.88 PPP
• Game 4: 79 picks, 0.93 PPP

Obviously, pick-and-rolls aren’t the only way to generate efficient half-court offense. But the easiest way for the Cavaliers to regain their half-court flow will be to flip some of these adjustments on their heads.

It could be as simple as introducing more Ram screens into their offense — with Mobley and Allen screening for each other in hopes of throwing off the defense behind the play, or forcing a switch altogether before screening for Harden or Mitchell.

Here’s an example from a matchup with the Knicks, with Dean Wade setting the Ram screen for Allen before the Mitchell-Allen pick-and-roll:

It may just be more intention in transition or early offense looks; all four (you read that right) of Allen’s screens for Harden in Game 4 came in those situations. Either way, something has to flip on that front for the Cavaliers.

Will Brandon Ingram shake free?

The volume scorer is an easy archetype to understand, but a difficult one to contextualize at times. The game is about getting a bucket; the players who can do so without assistance become incredibly valuable during this time of year. Being able to take over — for a half, a quarter, or even a two-minute stretch — can genuinely flip a game on its head.

Ask Brandon Ingram.

It’s been a wonky series for Ingram overall. He clearly has the respect of the Cavaliers, primarily being defended by Wade in this series and even getting Mobley, the 2024 Defensive Player of the Year, for stretches.

Off-ball physicality and face-guarding have made his touches more difficult to come by, and slower to get into. Ingram received 38 off-ball screens (20 in Game 1, 18 in Game 2) during the Cleveland stretch; he received 16 total (5 in Game 3, 11 in Game 4) while in Toronto.

Per Second Spectrum, he’s seen at least one help defender on 34 of his 39 drives (87.2%) in this series. That 87.2% clip ranks sixth among the 41 players to log at least 30 drives this postseason; that’s also a substantial increase from his regular season figure (75.2%).

Already a midrange heavy scorer, the added layers of help have made forays to the rim less accessible. His regular season rim/middy/three split — the percentage of shots he takes at the rim (20%), midrange (55%), and from deep (25%) — is already one of the more extreme ones we have in the league; it’s at 19-58-23 so far at this series.

I’m going to be keeping an eye on how the Raptors work to get him touches. Seeking him out in transition — or him getting busier on the defensive glass (3.3 defensive rebounds per game in this series) to jump-start those opportunities himself — could be a way to get him going against a tilted defense.

I want to give a quick hat-tip to the Raptors for sprinkling in more flat spacing looks (example here) for Ingram to isolate against less help. If he’s going to hunt shots in the midrange anyway, you might as well clear the wings to give him more room to work with.

While the off-ball volume has lowered over the past two games, the combination of back screens to set up seals or low-block touches, and the wide pindowns set lower on the floor have been fruitful in spots. I’d like to see them sprinkle in more of those compared to their usual Iverson screen setups.

Beyond that, as basic as it sounds, what do the next two or three games look like if Ingram simply knocks down jumpers?

The playoffs are inherently smaller samples to suss through, so there is a world where the cold streak simply continues. Them’s the breaks, and all that. But if this flips at all, it could be the half-court jolt in the arm the Raptors need to take a firm hold of this series.

Other thoughts

• The possession battle is going to loom large in this one. In Cleveland’s two wins, the Cavaliers won the turnover battle, rebounding battle, or both. In Toronto’s two wins, the Raptors won the turnover battle, rebounding battle, or both. I’m sure Kenny Atkinson is still having nightmares about Collin Murray-Boyles; he had five offensive rebounds in both Game 3 and Game 4 — including some pivotal ones in the fourth quarter of Game 4. Who’s going to tighten the screws there?

• Speaking of Murray-Boyles, can the Cavs find a way to poke at the lineups that feature him and Barnes together? The Raptors are plus-12 in 74 minutes with that duo on the floor, with the Raptors boasting a stingy 112.5 defensive rating in those minutes. I was intrigued by one of the late-game possessions in Game 4 where Murray-Boyles, taking on the Harden assignment, was caught being a little too aggressive off the ball. Could that be a way to carve out some space and neutralize some of his ability?

• Which version of Jaylon Tyson are we going to get moving forward? His blend of shooting, defense and overall athleticism provided real value to the Cavaliers during the regular season. His minutes have increased over the past two games; in light of how small the Cavs have been at times in their single-big lineups, he could be a real swing factor moving forward. They’ve lost the Mobley-only minutes in this series (-19 in 80 minutes) overall, but I wonder if we see more of the Dennis Schröder-Mitchell-Sam Merrill-Tyson-Mobley group (+4 in nine minutes) moving forward.