The worrisome implication of the Dexter Lawrence trade

The Bengals would rather have Lawrence than pick 10

Being the NFL’s best nose tackle is sort of like being the best actor on UPN. It’s an accomplishment, but there’s going to be some question of relative value. Don’t get me wrong, Lawrence is a beast. He’s also turning 29 this year and didn’t get to 1 sack last season. Typically, teams are able to draft better pass rushers than Dexter Lawrence in the top-10 of a given draft class. This makes it sound like someone like Rueben Bain, most people’s EDGE3 in the class, isn’t that enticing because otherwise it would be sensible for the Bengals to simply wheel and deal their way up a few spots if necessary. Or take EDGE4. Why don’t I say to take a defensive tackle? Because there are none in this class worthy of an early pick. We might not see a defensive tackle drafted on day one. In that sense, trading for Dexter Lawrence makes sense because of the defensive tackle class, but the 10th overall pick? Many teams wouldn’t draft that player top-10 even if he was a 22-year-old rookie with the same skillset.

The Rams traded a first for Trent McDuffie

No, it’s not an unreasonable request for a two-time All-Pro cornerback who is 25. Although McDuffie is not the same as acquiring Jalen Ramsey (for two first round picks), he’s arguably worth a late first round pick. The biggest impasse there is that the Rams also had to make him the highest-paid cornerback in the league. And he might have a bit of an injury concern. If the draft had cornerbacks like McDuffie in the late first (himself just the 21st overall pick), would they have rather just drafted one? Perhaps not, given that you don’t know what you’re going to get or how quickly he’ll be ready for the NFL. But teams were not readily giving away first round picks for players in the last four years. Now for this particular class it’s been handing them out like candy.

Falcons knew back in 2025

The Falcons traded their 2026 first round pick to the Rams all the way back in 2025 when they wanted to move up for James Pearce. As a top-10 pick? Nope. Just to get into pick 26. The fact that the Rams finagled a 2026 first round pick for that pick tells us that the Rams were happy to get it and Atlanta was willing to part with it, when in the past a second round pick could have been enough. **The Jaguars felt it too, trading their 2026 first round pick to move up a few spots for Travis Hunter.** They respected Hunter a lot obviously, but the move screams *“We need to get a player now because we’re not seeing anything coming down the pipeline in a year.”*

Colts traded two for Sauce Gardner

Packers traded two for Micah Parsons

Two of the trades we saw for players last year ended up giving a 2026 first and a 2027 first rounder. A 2026 first wouldn’t be enough for Sauce Gardner even though his last two years weren’t nearly as good as the first two. Trading two firsts for Parsons does make sense. But the Cowboys also got Kenny Clark in that deal. **To what degree is Dexter Lawrence better than Kenny Clark, by the way?** 10% better? 20%? The “throw-in” for the Packers-Cowboys trade was almost the same as the guy who got the 10th overall pick traded for him. There’s some miscalculation there. Unless the 10th overall pick is less valuable than normal.

The Broncos traded a 1 for Jaylen Waddle

Just remember that as folks are debating who the best steal is between Denzel Boston or Omar Cooper or whomever, the Broncos didn’t want any part of that. We haven’t seen Waddle be that great in a few years, and maybe that’s Miami’s fault entirely. But a first round pick for Waddle, a high-paid player who is 6-7ish years older than the rookie class, does say something about the receivers. A group that is typically the DEEPEST in a given class and 2026 is supposed to be no exception. Sean Payton didn’t want to risk getting KC Concepcion and having nothing to show for it.

Do Rams have concerns with pick 13?

So there we have it. A class we already know might be the worst quarterback class since 2022, if not worse, starts rough at the top and doesn’t seem to get much better from there. We could blame the NIL or the transfer portal or greed by the conferences and the NCAA or we could just call it bad luck. We see bad draft classes sometimes. The fact that the Bengals said, “Nah, we’d rather have a nose tackle turning 29 than a top-10 pick” says more than some people care to admit. Yes, Lawrence is a beast and every team would love to have him. But the 10th pick? In a year where six first round picks have already been traded, the class screams “We want no part in this” by the teams. Is Makai Lemon or Jermod McCoy or Kenyon Sadiq or Monroe Freeling really getting you hyped up? *Really?* We’ve seen teams trade these first round picks for below value already. We should expect many more by Thursday. And if you want the Rams to trade down for more picks, seeing how little teams value top-15 picks already… Be careful what you wish for.