This isn’t NIL anymore — it’s a nine‑figure bidding war | Opinion

The email arrived from the College Sports Commission this week, and it seemed simple enough.

A breakdown of the private NIL cases the clearinghouse has approved, and those that are still being held for lack of information.

Harmless enough, right?

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Until you look at the numbers. The sheer, unbelievable numbers.

How big? One-third of a billion dollars big. In less than 11 months.

And that’s only what has been reported.

I think we can now say the arms race in the Power conferences, and specifically, the SEC and Big Ten — which hold a majority of these deals — is officially out of control.

The CSC says in less than 11 months since college sports leaders (see: university presidents) asked it to police private NIL deals, the clearinghouse has approved 26,556 private NIL deals.

For $242.35 million.

While you’re retrieving your jaw from the floor, think about this: There are still 1,153 deals that haven’t been approved — and are worth $56.17 million. So by my count — and I’m no mathematician — 27,709 Division I private NIL deals have been forwarded to the CSC from June 11, 2025 through April 30.

That means — are you ready for this? — $298.52 million has been offered to Division I athletes to play sports for ol’ State U.

LSU has a reported $50 million roster for 2026, and if that number is close to true, the private NIL deals we don't know about are otherworldly. If LSU, like most heavyweight Power conference programs, uses 75% of its $20 million-ish media rights pool money toward football, that's roughly $15 million of the $50 million roster.

That means LSU’s football roster for 2026 includes $35 million in private NIL deals — or 11% of the $300 million in Division I private NIL deals through the clearinghouse. If all of LSU's private NIL deals have been approved, that means the reported $35 million in private NIL is 15 percent of the approved market.

Fifteen percent of the entire market. From one school.

If you can't win a championship on the field, you buy one through private NIL.

As difficult as it is to wrap your mind around the reality that boosters around the country have committed to or paid nearly a third of a billion dollars in private NIL deals in less than 11 months, that number isn't close to the real cash changing hands ― above and under the table.

Mark Cuban hopped on a podcast earlier this week and explained the machinations of private NIL, and it's now much easier to see how it plays out all over the college landscape every single day. Legally and illegally.

As Cuban tells it, he and Indiana athletic director Scott Dolson watched the 2024 College Football Playoff loss at Notre Dame in a suite at Notre Dame Stadium. It was there that Dolson said the IU staff had identified a quarterback for 2025, but needed more money.

Cuban said Dolson told him the exact number the Hoosiers needed to land California transfer Fernando Mendoza, and Cuban said he told Dolson, “I will put up the money to get this quarterback.”

Now imagine the deals that aren't so cut and dried and legal. Because if you do the math, there's no chance the CSC's $300 million number comes close to covering the nut.

This leads us to an obvious fork in the road: Either these roster budgets are wildly overinflated, or there are more under the table deals than anyone wants to admit.

While the former is certainly possible, the latter is downright scary.

Because if LSU is at $50 million, you better believe Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, Alabama and Texas A&M are close behind. If that group of six heavy spenders is even at $40 million each, that’s $120-plus million in private NIL deals from that group alone.

But it’s not just football. Florida, Kentucky, Texas, Arkansas and Tennessee all have reportedly moved past $20 million for men’s basketball rosters. SEC schools use roughly $5 million of media rights money on basketball salaries, leaving the remaining $15 million-plus coming from private NIL deals.

That’s $75 million in private NIL deals for those five SEC basketball schools. Again, I’m no mathematician, but that means $200 million of the $300 million the CSC has cleared ― a whopping 66 percent ― has been spent by a handful of universities.

That, or there’s all kinds of under the table money floating around the remaining 130ish FBS programs and all FCS programs. By programs, I mean all universities, all sports.

Sheer, unbelievable numbers.

That are more than likely much larger than anyone can imagine.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him own X at @MattHayesCFB.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: SEC, Big Ten continue arms race with staggering private NIL deals