Thunder vs Lakers props for Game 4: Prediction markets for NBA Playoffs

A massive storyline heading into Game 4 is how the Lakers will counter Oklahoma City's overwhelming offense to keep their postseason hopes alive. The elite duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren have been outstanding for the Thunder through the first three games, with Holmgren averaging a double-double of 21.3 points and 10 rebounds in the series. The Lakers will lean heavily on LeBron James, who is putting up 23 points per game, with star guard Luka Dončić still sidelined.

Thunder vs Lakers props for Game 4

The data paints a stark picture for Game 4, heavily favoring the Thunder with an 81% chance of victory. Despite holding home-court advantage, the Lakers face a daunting uphill battle with just a 19% probability of securing a win. This massive gap highlights Oklahoma City's dominant form in the matchup and suggests strong statistical confidence that the road team will continue to dictate the momentum in this postseason series.

Thunder vs Lakers stats comparison

OKC has thoroughly outplayed LA across the first three games of this series, establishing a clear statistical superiority. The Thunder are averaging a staggering 121.3 points per game compared to the Lakers scoring just 101.7. Operating with elite efficiency, Oklahoma City is shooting 54% from the field and 42% from beyond the arc. Los Angeles has struggled to keep pace at 46% overall and 39% from deep.

A significant mismatch lies in ball security and defensive disruption. The Thunder force mistakes while protecting the basketball, averaging 10.7 steals and committing just 11.7 turnovers per game. On the other hand, the Lakers are coughing the ball up 17.7 times a night, consistently fueling Oklahoma City's lethal transition offense. On the glass, the Thunder hold a slight edge as well, pulling down 39.7 rebounds to the Lakers' 36.

These metrics perfectly reflect what transpired in Game 3. The Thunder rode a strong offensive showing to a 131-108 victory, closing the contest with an unstoppable 41-point fourth quarter. Ajay Mitchell paced his squad with 24 points, consistently exploiting the perimeter defense. Los Angeles suffered the defeat despite a balanced performance led by Rui Hachimura, who contributed 21 points.

To stay alive, the Lakers must dictate the tempo and drastically reduce their giveaways. Key matchups will determine Game 4, notably how Deandre Ayton handles Chet Holmgren inside, and whether Marcus Smart and Austin Reaves can contain Mitchell and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the perimeter.

Lakers vs Thunder injury report for Game 4

Los Angeles Lakers

• Luka Dončić (Hamstring) - Out

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Jalen Williams (Hamstring) - Out
• Thomas Sorber (Knee) - Out for season

The absence of Luka Dončić remains a devastating blow for Los Angeles. Sidelined with a hamstring injury, his unavailability severely limits the offensive ceiling and places immense playmaking pressure on LeBron James. For Oklahoma City, the loss of Jalen Williams deprives them of a vital two-way presence on the wing. However, the depth and efficiency of the Thunder have allowed them to absorb his absence effectively throughout the first three games of this series.

Best props for Thunder vs Lakers Game 4

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25+ Points (73% on Kalshi)

SGA is averaging 21 points per game in this series, but that number is deceptively low given his 28.3 PPG average across the entire playoff run. His 32.5% usage rate is the highest on either team, and he's getting to the free-throw line at a healthy clip (6.3 attempts per game in this series). With the Lakers struggling defensively, surrendering 121.3 PPG in the series, and Gilgeous-Alexander smelling a closeout opportunity, expect him to attack aggressively and push past this number.

Chet Holmgren 9+ Rebounds (55% on Kalshi)

Holmgren has been a force on the glass, averaging 10 rebounds per game through three games (2.7 offensive, 7.3 defensive). His length and positioning give him a massive advantage over Deandre Ayton, who has been battling foul trouble (3.3 personal fouls per game in the series). With Isaiah Hartenstein also pulling down 9.0 RPG alongside him, Oklahoma City dominates the boards, and Holmgren's 31.7 minutes per game give him ample opportunity to exceed this total.

LeBron James 6+ Assists (77% on Kalshi)

With Luka Dončić sidelined, LeBron is shouldering the entire playmaking burden for Los Angeles. He's averaging 6.7 assists per game in the series and 7.8 for the full playoffs, indicating he consistently facilitates at a high level. Facing an elimination scenario, expect James to command the ball even more, running pick-and-rolls with Ayton and finding shooters like Luke Kennard (58% from three in the series) and Rui Hachimura (57% from deep). The desperation factor pushes this over the top.

Thunder vs Lakers prediction for Game 4

OKC enters Game 4 as an overwhelming favorite, and the numbers back it up. The Thunder have outscored Los Angeles by an average of 19.6 points per game in this series, combining elite shooting (54% FG, 42% from three) with suffocating defensive pressure (10.7 steals per game). Their 25.3 points off turnovers per contest have been a backbreaker for a Lakers team that cannot protect the ball.

For Los Angeles, the path to survival is narrow but not impossible. Home-court advantage at Crypto.com Arena, a potential bounce-back from Austin Reaves (18.7 PPG but just 25% from three in the series), and the urgency of elimination could fuel a desperate effort. However, with the Thunder's depth generating 42 bench points per game, nearly double the Lakers' 22, Oklahoma City has the firepower to weather any run.

Expect the Thunder to close this one out with another dominant performance and punch their ticket to the Western Conference Finals for a second consecutive season.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder win, sweep series 4-0.