Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg prediction, pick for UFC Fight Night 275

Tim Elliott and Steve Erceg meet on the UFC Fight Night 275 main card Saturday at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.

• Last event's results: 3-3
• UFC main cards, 2026: 39-22

Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg UFC Fight Night 275 preview

Elliott (21-13-1 MMA, 10-11 UFC) will look for his third-straight win. He comes into this match following back-to-back stoppages of Sumudaerji and Kai Asakura. He has also won four of his last five.

Since 2024, Erceg (13-4 MMA, 4-3 UFC) is 2-3, a run that included three-straight losses. However, he bounced back with a win over Ode Osbourne last August and will look to build upon that with another victory.

Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg UFC Fight Night 275 expert pick, prediction

Filling out the main card is an intriguing flyweight fight between Steve Erceg and Tim Elliott.

Erceg, like previous fighters who were pushed up the ladder too fast, has had a hard time getting his confidence back since being fed to the wolves via the matchmakers' brutal (and arguably short-sighted) matchmaking practices.

Even in what was technically a winning effort in his last time out, Erceg was barely able to squeak by Ode Osbourne due to the southpaw striking threats.

Although Elliott is far from your traditional southpaw striker, the stance-switching veteran can be even trickier to get a beat on and knows how to make a fight ugly.

I'm a big fan of Elliott, and he came through for me last time out opposite Kai Asakura. The potential problem here, however, is that I don't see the classic southpaw counters from Elliott that have typically troubled Erceg.

In fact, I suspect that some of Elliott's hard-wired slips and dips could run him into an Erceg high kick if the American is not careful. I hope I'm wrong, but I think that Elliott gets more than he bargains for in this spot.

It's dog or pass from a betting perspective, but the official pick is for Erceg to score a club-and-sub within the first ten minutes of this fight.

Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg UFC Fight Night 275 odds

The oddsmakers and the public favor the Australian fighter, listing Erceg -230 and Elliott +180 via FanDuel.