Timberwolves' Injuries Give Ayo Dosunmu A Golden Free-Agency Opportunity

What Is Dosunmu Worth In Free Agency?

Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels became Public Enemy No. 1 in Denver when he told reporters that his plan was to go after all of the "bad defenders" on the Nuggets in Game 2. He immediately proceeded to name four of their five starters, sparing only Christian Braun from ignominy.

McDaniels backed up his trash talk with a snarling 20-point, 10-rebound masterpiece in Game 3. Dosunmu took the torch from him in Game 4, taking turns waltzing to the rim or bombing away from deep with impunity.

The Nuggets have now had two days to prepare for the DiVincenzo- and Edwards-less Timberwolves, so Dosunmu likely won't find the sledding to be quite as easy in Game 5 and/or the rest of the series. But if Dosunmu proves that his Game 4 eruption wasn't a fluke, teams around the league will undoubtedly take notice.

Dosunmu might not be the next Jalen Brunson in hiding, but could be the this year's version of Nickeil Alexander-Walker? After averaging 8.4 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game off the bench across his two-plus years with the Timberwolves, Alexander-Walker signed a four-year, $60.6 million contract with the Atlanta Hawks this past offseason.

That deal already looks like a screaming value.

Alexander-Walker averaged a career-high 20.8 points, 3.7 assists and 3.4 rebounds in 33.4 minutes per game for the Hawks this season en route to the NBA's Most Improved Player award. He's struggled to maintain that level of production in the playoffs against the New York Knicks, but the Hawks are still getting plenty of bang for their buck.

The Hawks acquired Alexander-Walker via a sign-and-trade, which allowed them to structure his contract uniquely. (His salary dips in 2026-27 before rising again over the ensuing two years.) But the total amount they gave him is equivalent to a four-year deal signed with the non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

Based on the current $165 million projection for the 2026-27 salary cap, the non-taxpayer MLE would start at roughly $15.05 million. If he left the Wolves and signed with another team via the non-taxpayer MLE, he'd top out at a four-year, $64.7 million deal this offseason.

Depending on how he performs throughout the rest of the playoffs, that may now be his contractual floor, not his ceiling.

Can Wolves Afford To Keep Dosunmu?

The Timberwolves acquired Dosunmu from the Chicago Bulls ahead of this year's trade deadline for Rob Dillingham, Leonard Miller and four second-round picks. After seeing what he did in Game 4—and knowing that DiVincenzo figures to miss most if not all of next season in the wake of his Achilles tear—they aren't likely to let him go in free agency this offseason without a fight.

The problem is that they already have more than $190 million in salary on their books for next season. The first apron is currently projected to be $209 million, while the second apron is projected to be $222 million.

If the Wolves sign Dosunmu to a contract worth $19 million or more, that alone would push them over the first apron. Once they round out the rest of their roster, they could be in danger of going into second-apron territory, which would result in a bevy of unpleasant roster-building restrictions.

The Wolves could look to free up some spending power by salary-dumping DiVincenzo, who's about to enter the final year of his contract. But if they have Dosunmu ticketed to replace DiVincenzo in their starting lineup, that might only further drive up his asking price.

Twenty-nine guards are earning at least $30 million this season, while an additional eight are earning between $20 and $30 million. Exactly 50 are earning more than the $14.1 million starting salary of this year's non-taxpayer MLE.

Prior to Dosunmu's Game 4 breakout, the Wolves might have been hoping that he'd fly under the radar in free agency and that they'd be able to re-sign him at a reasonable price. However, the odds of that will decrease exponentially if he musters more playoff heroics in Game 5 and beyond.

Unlike last offseason, when the Brooklyn Nets were the only team with spending power, the Nets, Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers are all projected to enter the summer with at least $45 million in cap space, according to Spotrac's Keith Smith. The Atlanta Hawks and Detroit Pistons could each have at least $25 million in cap space as well, although they'd each have to allow some key players to depart to reach that figure.

If the Lakers get outbid on Austin Reaves, could they pivot toward Dosunmu instead? With tanking reform seemingly coming ahead of the 2026-27 season, would the Nets see Dosunmu as a way to speed up their rebuild? Might the Bulls pursue a reunion with Dosunmu after getting rid of the front office that traded him at the deadline?

Other suitors could emerge as well depending on sign-and-trade machinations and how the larger league landscape plays out this offseason. Either way, the Wolves could now be in a tough spot.

They'll need to rely on Dosunmu to keep them afloat until Edwards returns, but every strong performance could prove increasingly costly for them in free agency.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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This article was originally published on Forbes.com