Timberwolves-Spurs series preview: Can Minnesota again prove people wrong?

San Antonio is at full strength entering the series.

Timberwolves keys to victory

The 3-point shot

Minnesota shot just 33.7% from distance in its last series against Denver, and it didn’t reach 30 attempts in any of the final three games of the series.

That makes sense for a team that lost its top two volume shooters from deep – DiVincenzo and Edwards – in the first half of Game 4.

But that type of incompetence from distance isn’t going to cut it in this series.

While Minnesota lived at the rim against Denver, that won’t be an option against the Spurs. Yes, San Antonio’s perimeter defense is slightly better than that of Denver. But the primary difference is Wembanyama. Minnesota moves from facing a team with zero rim protection to the NBA’s most fearsome shot blocker.

Finch said Minnesota needs to maintain its aggression in attacking off the bounce. The Wolves still need paint touches to break down the San Antonio defense – which ranked No. 3 in the NBA this season – but Finch noted Minnesota needs good decision-making once it gets around the rim.

Likely, the right play will often be to collapse the Spurs’ defense and then kick out. The Wolves – outside of Gobert – need to be willing and able to knock down open catch-and-shoot triples.

Ball pressure

Scoring won’t come easy for Minnesota, even if it does hit an adequate number of outside shots. The Spurs’ defense has been consistently excellent all season.

Wembanyama was the unanimous choice for Defensive Player of the Year. Teams scored a paltry 103.6 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor during the regular season.

It’s unlikely the Wolves will win this series on the strength of offensive production. But Minnesota reminded basketball onlookers last series that its defense can be the ultimate neutralizer.

While the Spurs also touted the NBA’s third-best offense this season, San Antonio’s ball handlers and shooters are capable of being sped up.

Wembanyama’s general dominance can be diminished via physicality. If the Wolves can get San Antonio’s offense out of rhythm and create transition opportunities for themselves via stops, they can remain competitive.

Keep it close

Minnesota is playing in the second round for the third consecutive season. While San Antonio has a couple of veterans with past postseason experience, the team in general is largely unfamiliar with this stage and environment.

The Spurs weren’t truly tested by Portland last round. If Minnesota can remain within touch of San Antonio into the latter portion of the final frame in these games, it can apply a pressure with which the Spurs aren’t accustomed.

The expectations in this series are entirely with a young San Antonio team and not the short-handed Wolves. That could play to Minnesota’s advantage and cause the Spurs to tighten up late in a close game.

“Stealing” a game in this series with a late rally may be a required piece of the formula for Minnesota’s advancement.

Prediction

Spurs in 6. This is out of respect for Minnesota, which has repeatedly shown the ability to rise to the challenge in the early rounds of the playoffs.

But it does figure to be difficult for the Timberwolves to score in this series. And even if Edwards does return – which is speculative at this point – it’s hard to envision him being close to 100%.

San Antonio won 62 games for a reason, and the long awaited Thunder-Spurs conference finals is likely to come to fruition.

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