
The Timberwolves are significant underdogs in their Western Conference semifinal series against the Spurs, with sportsbooks giving them an 11-1 chance to reach the conference finals. They are also 13.5-point underdogs for Game 1 in Texas.
Itâs not a surprise the undermanned Timberwolves are underdogs heading into their Western Conference semifinal series against San Antonio that tips off Monday.
But the degree to which the Spurs are favored is a bit jarring.
Minnesota is an 11-1 underdog to reach its third straight conference finals, per some sportsbooks. The Spurs are only slightly above even money to sweep the Timberwolves, who are 13.5-point underdogs for Game 1 in Texas.
A lack of respect or belief from the sportsbooks and national media is nothing new to Minnesota, which has emerged victorious from numerous rounds it wasnât expected to advance out of in recent years.
But this is a new level of doubt.
Can the Wolves again prove people wrong?
Game 1: 8:30 p.m. Monday in San Antonio, NBCSN and Peacock
Game 2: 8:30 p.m. Wednesday in San Antonio, ESPN
Game 3: 8:30 p.m. Friday in Minneapolis, Prime
Game 4: 6:30 p.m. Sunday, May 10 in Minneapolis, NBC and Peacock
Game 5: Tuesday, May 12 in San Antonio*
Game 6: Friday, May 15 in Minneapolis*
Game 7: Sunday, May 17 in San Antonio*
*= if necessary
Minnesota won two of the three matchups, though Spurs star center Victor Wembanyama missed one of those Wolves wins.
These teams havenât played since Jan. 17, a three-point Spurs win in which Anthony Edwards poured in 55 points as Minnesota erased a 25-point halftime deficit, only to be held off by Wembanyamaâs 39 points. Rudy Gobert missed that game for Minnesota.
Minnesota is without Donte DiVincenzo, whoâs lost for the season. Edwards was seen doing some shooting work at practice Saturday, but he remains week to week and will miss at least the first two games of this series.
Ayo Dosunmu is day to day with calf soreness. Timberwolves coach Chris Finch said he went through only the light portions of Saturdayâs practice.
The Timberwolves are 11-1 underdogs to reach the conference finals against the Spurs.
The Timberwolves are 13.5-point underdogs for Game 1 against the Spurs.
The Timberwolves are seen as underdogs due to their undermanned roster and a history of being underestimated by sportsbooks and media.
Being favored to sweep indicates that sportsbooks believe the Spurs have a strong chance to win all games in the series without losing.
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San Antonio is at full strength entering the series.
Minnesota shot just 33.7% from distance in its last series against Denver, and it didnât reach 30 attempts in any of the final three games of the series.
That makes sense for a team that lost its top two volume shooters from deep â DiVincenzo and Edwards â in the first half of Game 4.
But that type of incompetence from distance isnât going to cut it in this series.
While Minnesota lived at the rim against Denver, that wonât be an option against the Spurs. Yes, San Antonioâs perimeter defense is slightly better than that of Denver. But the primary difference is Wembanyama. Minnesota moves from facing a team with zero rim protection to the NBAâs most fearsome shot blocker.
Finch said Minnesota needs to maintain its aggression in attacking off the bounce. The Wolves still need paint touches to break down the San Antonio defense â which ranked No. 3 in the NBA this season â but Finch noted Minnesota needs good decision-making once it gets around the rim.
Likely, the right play will often be to collapse the Spursâ defense and then kick out. The Wolves â outside of Gobert â need to be willing and able to knock down open catch-and-shoot triples.
Scoring wonât come easy for Minnesota, even if it does hit an adequate number of outside shots. The Spursâ defense has been consistently excellent all season.
Wembanyama was the unanimous choice for Defensive Player of the Year. Teams scored a paltry 103.6 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor during the regular season.
Itâs unlikely the Wolves will win this series on the strength of offensive production. But Minnesota reminded basketball onlookers last series that its defense can be the ultimate neutralizer.
While the Spurs also touted the NBAâs third-best offense this season, San Antonioâs ball handlers and shooters are capable of being sped up.
Wembanyamaâs general dominance can be diminished via physicality. If the Wolves can get San Antonioâs offense out of rhythm and create transition opportunities for themselves via stops, they can remain competitive.
Minnesota is playing in the second round for the third consecutive season. While San Antonio has a couple of veterans with past postseason experience, the team in general is largely unfamiliar with this stage and environment.
The Spurs werenât truly tested by Portland last round. If Minnesota can remain within touch of San Antonio into the latter portion of the final frame in these games, it can apply a pressure with which the Spurs arenât accustomed.
The expectations in this series are entirely with a young San Antonio team and not the short-handed Wolves. That could play to Minnesotaâs advantage and cause the Spurs to tighten up late in a close game.
âStealingâ a game in this series with a late rally may be a required piece of the formula for Minnesotaâs advancement.
Spurs in 6. This is out of respect for Minnesota, which has repeatedly shown the ability to rise to the challenge in the early rounds of the playoffs.
But it does figure to be difficult for the Timberwolves to score in this series. And even if Edwards does return â which is speculative at this point â itâs hard to envision him being close to 100%.
San Antonio won 62 games for a reason, and the long awaited Thunder-Spurs conference finals is likely to come to fruition.