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The Minnesota Timberwolves have taken a surprising lead in their playoff series against the Denver Nuggets, winning three straight games after losing the opener. Game 5 on Monday night presents a potential elimination scenario for the Nuggets.
DENVER, COLORADO - MAY 06: Jamal Murray #27 of the Denver Nuggets looks for a foul call while playing the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second quarter during Game Two of the Western Conference Second Round Playoffs at Ball Arena on May 06, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
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The Minnesota Timberwolves have shocked the Denver Nuggets in their first-round playoff series by rattling off three consecutive wins with a short-handed roster following an 11-point series-opening loss.
With what would have been considered a highly unlikely elimination scenario now in play for Monday nightâs Game 5, we explore a three-leg same-game parlay that could deliver handsome returns on investment:
(Odds listed are best at time of publishing)
The first round of the NBA Playoffs has been nothing if not eventful, as multiple series have taken some interesting and unlikely turns. Perhaps none fits that description best than this Timberwolves-Nuggets showdown, which opened with a Denver squad that was favored coming in taking a 116-105 decision in Game 1.
The Timberwolves lead the series 3-1 after winning three consecutive games.
Jamal Murray is a key player for the Denver Nuggets, known for his scoring ability and playmaking in crucial playoff games.
Game 5 is critical for the Nuggets as they face elimination if they lose, making it a must-win situation.
A three-leg same-game parlay is suggested for Game 5, which could offer significant returns on investment.
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However, signs something could be amiss emerged as early as Game 2, when Minnesota impressively squeaked out a 119-114 victory at Ball Arena to take a series tie back home. What followed were two standout defensive performances on the part of Chris Finchâs squad, as Nikola JokiÄ and co. were held to 96 points apiece in Games 3 and 4 during 17- and 16-point losses, respectively.
Particularly noteworthy about the Nuggetsâ most recent stumble was the fact it came while facing a T-Wolves squad that lost Donte DiVincenzo to a torn Achilles just one minute in, and Anthony Edwards after 18 minutes to what has now been diagnosed as a bone bruise and hyperextension of the left knee that will keep the superstar sidelined multiple weeks.
The absence of their starting backcourt will naturally present a significant challenge to the visitors on Monday night, and it makes the Nuggetsâ task of jumping back into the series significantly easier. Minnesota does have some above-average backcourt depth in the form of Bones Hyland and Ayo Dosunmu, whoâve both amply proven capable of delivering quality production in starting roles in the past.
Additionally, grizzled veteran Mike Conley (who is, in fact, a former Memphis Grizzly) is on hand as a still-viable source of quality limited minutes. Nevertheless, the absence of Edwards in particular canât be fully accounted for, particularly in a high-stakes postseason setting.
Consequently, given the Nuggetsâ desperation and the clear personnel advantage at the moment against a wounded opponent, weâll deploy FanDuelâs Alt. Spread feature in our first leg and lower Denverâs elevated 11.5-point spread a full seven points to 4.5, keeping the hosts as the favorite they deserve to be but bringing down the burden in terms of margin of victory.
For our second leg, weâll focus on Jamal Murray, whoâs been tormenting the Timberwolves since the regular season and now has the advantage of facing a significantly short-handed backcourt. Murray went for points + rebounds + assists totals of 52, 41, 47 and 34 during his four regular-season encounters with Minnesota, shooting 43.6% from three-point range in the process over 39.3 minutes per contest.
Nothing has really changed during the first four games of the series despite the Nuggetsâ team-level struggles. The star guard has averaged 37.3 points + rebounds + assists thus far in the postseason, and thatâs factoring in an atypically poor Game 3 shooting performance where Murray went just 5-for-17 from the floor, including 0-for-5 from behind the arc.
Meanwhile, his points + rebounds + assists totals in Games 1, 2 and 4 checked in at 42, 44 and 40, respectively. Therefore, weâll take the Over on his Alt. Total of 34.5 points + rebounds + assists as our second leg, grabbing a small but important discount on his conventional 37.5 number for that prop.
Finally, weâll turn to the other side of the matchup for our third and final leg. The absences of DiVincenzo and Edwards naturally equate to a bump in usage elsewhere on Minnesotaâs first unit, and one of the biggest beneficiaries should be Julius Randle.
The big man has been relatively quiet in the series thus far with averages of 17.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists across 33.0 minutes per game, but those numbers should be due for a sizable bump Monday.
Per RotoWireâs On/Off Court tool, Randle has led the Timberwolves starters since the start of the regular season with a 28.7% usage rate when both DiVincenzo and Edwards are off the floor, averaging 37.3 points + rebounds + assists and 16.1 shot attempts per 36 minutes in that split.
The big man has scuffled with his offensive efficiency some in the first four games of the series â heâs shooting just 42.6% â but Randle did drain 51.5% of his attempts against Denver in four regular-season encounters while averaging that same 37.3 points + rebounds + assists across exactly 36 minutes per contest.
Randleâs conventional PRA prop number for tonightâs game stands at 34.5, so weâll once again avail ourselves of the Alt. Total feature to coax that number down to 31.5, a number heâs eclipsed against the Nuggets on four occasions since the start of the season.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com