Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: Game 5 SGP Featuring Jamal Murray, More

However, signs something could be amiss emerged as early as Game 2, when Minnesota impressively squeaked out a 119-114 victory at Ball Arena to take a series tie back home. What followed were two standout defensive performances on the part of Chris Finch’s squad, as Nikola Jokić and co. were held to 96 points apiece in Games 3 and 4 during 17- and 16-point losses, respectively.

Particularly noteworthy about the Nuggets’ most recent stumble was the fact it came while facing a T-Wolves squad that lost Donte DiVincenzo to a torn Achilles just one minute in, and Anthony Edwards after 18 minutes to what has now been diagnosed as a bone bruise and hyperextension of the left knee that will keep the superstar sidelined multiple weeks.

The absence of their starting backcourt will naturally present a significant challenge to the visitors on Monday night, and it makes the Nuggets’ task of jumping back into the series significantly easier. Minnesota does have some above-average backcourt depth in the form of Bones Hyland and Ayo Dosunmu, who’ve both amply proven capable of delivering quality production in starting roles in the past.

Additionally, grizzled veteran Mike Conley (who is, in fact, a former Memphis Grizzly) is on hand as a still-viable source of quality limited minutes. Nevertheless, the absence of Edwards in particular can’t be fully accounted for, particularly in a high-stakes postseason setting.

Consequently, given the Nuggets’ desperation and the clear personnel advantage at the moment against a wounded opponent, we’ll deploy FanDuel’s Alt. Spread feature in our first leg and lower Denver’s elevated 11.5-point spread a full seven points to 4.5, keeping the hosts as the favorite they deserve to be but bringing down the burden in terms of margin of victory.

For our second leg, we’ll focus on Jamal Murray, who’s been tormenting the Timberwolves since the regular season and now has the advantage of facing a significantly short-handed backcourt. Murray went for points + rebounds + assists totals of 52, 41, 47 and 34 during his four regular-season encounters with Minnesota, shooting 43.6% from three-point range in the process over 39.3 minutes per contest.

Nothing has really changed during the first four games of the series despite the Nuggets’ team-level struggles. The star guard has averaged 37.3 points + rebounds + assists thus far in the postseason, and that’s factoring in an atypically poor Game 3 shooting performance where Murray went just 5-for-17 from the floor, including 0-for-5 from behind the arc.

Meanwhile, his points + rebounds + assists totals in Games 1, 2 and 4 checked in at 42, 44 and 40, respectively. Therefore, we’ll take the Over on his Alt. Total of 34.5 points + rebounds + assists as our second leg, grabbing a small but important discount on his conventional 37.5 number for that prop.

Finally, we’ll turn to the other side of the matchup for our third and final leg. The absences of DiVincenzo and Edwards naturally equate to a bump in usage elsewhere on Minnesota’s first unit, and one of the biggest beneficiaries should be Julius Randle.

The big man has been relatively quiet in the series thus far with averages of 17.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists across 33.0 minutes per game, but those numbers should be due for a sizable bump Monday.

Per RotoWire’s On/Off Court tool, Randle has led the Timberwolves starters since the start of the regular season with a 28.7% usage rate when both DiVincenzo and Edwards are off the floor, averaging 37.3 points + rebounds + assists and 16.1 shot attempts per 36 minutes in that split.

The big man has scuffled with his offensive efficiency some in the first four games of the series – he’s shooting just 42.6% – but Randle did drain 51.5% of his attempts against Denver in four regular-season encounters while averaging that same 37.3 points + rebounds + assists across exactly 36 minutes per contest.

Randle’s conventional PRA prop number for tonight’s game stands at 34.5, so we’ll once again avail ourselves of the Alt. Total feature to coax that number down to 31.5, a number he’s eclipsed against the Nuggets on four occasions since the start of the season.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com