Toronto Maple Leafs winning NHL draft lottery would be ‘massive’, per O’Neill

The Toronto Maple Leafs head into the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery with pressure and hope after a disappointing season.

Toronto’s 2025-26 campaign collapsed in dramatic fashion. The team finished 32-36-14, ending a nine-year playoff streak and dropping to last in the Atlantic Division.

Now, attention shifts to the lottery on May 5. Toronto holds an 8.5 percent chance at the No. 1 pick, with a 41.9 percent chance of keeping its first-round selection. The pick remains top-five protected due to a previous trade with the Boston Bruins. If it falls outside that range, it transfers to Boston, increasing the stakes.

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A favorable result could bring elite talent like Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg into the system. Considering the stakes, former player and analyst Jeff O’Neill believes a lottery win would be ‘massive’ for the franchise and its fan base.

Speaking on TSN, O’Neill stressed the Leafs’ influence on hockey interest across Canada.

“It’s very simple,” O’Neill said. “Don’t come at me, all of Canada. Toronto Maple Leafs drive the bus as far as interest in the country. You see it everywhere they travel. It would be massive. You’d also like to see another team get it.”

O’Neill acknowledged other contenders like the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks, but emphasized Toronto’s market impact.

The reason behind Toronto Maple Leafs’ decline in 2025-26 season

The Maple Leafs entered the 2025-26 NHL season with big expectations, but they completely fell off. Injuries played a major role, especially to captain Auston Matthews, who suffered a season-ending MCL tear in March.

Defensive depth also took a hit, with Chris Tanev limited to just 11 games. Goaltending instability added to the problems, forcing inexperienced players into important roles.