Tournament picks: How to bet Saturday's national semifinal games

The national semifinals for the 2026 men's basketball tournament take place Saturday with a pair of highly anticipated matchups.

The action tips off when 3-seed Illinois (-1.5, over/under 139.5) takes on 2-seed UConn at 6:09 p.m. ET, followed by a showdown between pair of No. 1 seeds, Michigan (-1.5, O/U 157.5) and Arizona, at approximately 8:49 p.m.

Here are my selections for these games and the final two picks for the new ESPN Men's Tournament Challenge Eliminator game.

Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook

Saturday's bets

Illinois moneyline (-130)

This national semifinal is a rematch of two teams that met back in late November at Madison Square Garden. It's really tough to stand in front of UConn and bet against them, especially after what we just saw in the game against Duke on Sunday. However, this is a much different Illinois team now. The Illini are the most efficient offense in the country. When you have two teams that play slow to very slow in a game with limited possessions, give me the better-shooting squad with the more efficient offense.

The best, and likely the only, way for UConn to win this game is to muck it up and keep it a low-scoring affair. That's what the Huskies did in November. They will be charged with the task of keeping Illinois' team shooting to around 42% or worse. Five of Illinois' eight losses have come when it shot 42.5% or worse from the field -- and two of those games went to overtime. The Illini have been held to fewer than 70 points just twice this season, but one of them was the game against UConn, which held them to a season-low 61 points.

The Illini have the edge in size and on the boards and can play inside better than UConn. They also take care of the ball better, with the 10th-lowest turnover percentage in the country. Illinois takes a lot of 3s, so even if it is making them at a below-average rate, that should be enough to keep it in the game for 40 minutes.

The Illini have proved that they can win low-scoring games, as they did against Houston in the round of 16. But UConn isn't built to win a high-scoring game. If this turns into a shootout, that's a major advantage for Illinois. Give me the better-shooting team to win here as Illinois get its revenge.

Michigan-Arizona 1st half UNDER 73.5 (-105)

These are the two best defenses in the country. They are also two of the top five offenses in the country. That said, here's why I'm willing to look at the under. I'm using the same logic I used for the Duke-UConn first-half play last weekend.

The only other reference point we have for Michigan against a defense this good was versus Duke in a game that ended 68-63. The game total there was 151.5. The only similar reference points we have for Arizona are two matchups against Houston. The regular-season matchup total was 142.5 and the Big 12 tournament final was 138.5. We are at 157.5 here for this game and it seems too high for me.

The first half between Michigan and Duke totaled just 68 points. The regular-season matchup between Arizona and Houston featured just 67 first-half points. In the Big 12 final, they scored 80 in the first half, but both teams were playing their third game in three days and it's natural to expect that defense would lag in that spot.

On Saturday, these two teams will have had at least five days of preparation for each other, which should keep the defenses sharper at the outset. Add in the fact that this game is at Lucas Oil Stadium, so the sightlines will be different. There have been three previous national semifinals in this venue. In 2021, the totals came in at 145.5 and 134 points. In 2015, the semifinal totals were 131 and 140. Lastly, in 2010, the totals were 136.5 and 128.

Recognizing that those opponents were all different and the game itself is higher scoring now than even five years ago, some rise in the total is expected. Still, I think we have enough here to expect that defense will rule the day at the outset.

Eliminator pick: Illinois

If you've gotten this far and have multiple teams available, you need to pick the team in the national semifinal that you think will lose in the final. That's why the Illini fit here. If you have both Michigan and Arizona, picking either one here will likely have you losing your next game by going against them. Illinois advances one last time.