Transfer Update: Is It Time To Panic?

Coach Justin Gainey

You are panicking, I know you are!

Maybe we should be?

Or maybe it’s a little premature?

NOTE: According to Verbal Commits, Kentucky and UConn each added one player after this post.

“Why can’t NC State sign some of these high-priced guys? I’ve donated to help the Wolfpack be competitive.”

I am right there with you. I donate and I am a season ticket holder. It’s hard to be patient. Especially when new coaches Odom and Lucas seem to be doing unbelievably well. Here’s some thoughts on why I don’t think we need to worry anytime soon.

Let’s make some assumptions:

• First and foremost, we’ve been reassured that NC State has a competitive budget. (What does that mean? Is it true in the inflated 2026 market? Who knows?!) But we do have to build an entire roster out of the mercenary auction. That will be expensive.
• Coach Gainey is going to need (probably – but you never know) 12 more players.
• Hammond will start
• Sagnia will play center, Wilkins will play forward, both will come off the bench [STOP! Before you lose your minds over whether these guys will play at all or not – for the purposes of this, it really doesn’t matter. We can agree, they won’t be starters. If they want big paychecks, they’ll have to test the market.]
• The primary rotation will be 8 players – (Note: The majority of schools use a 7-8-man rotations, but UT played 9 last season. So, Coach Gainey is probably open to it, if he has the talent.)

Shopping List:

• 4 $$tarter$$ – (guard, wing guard/small forward, forward, center)
• 1 ($) to come off the bench – (guard) *
• 7 guys that won’t play regularly *
• * Adjust those numbers/positions appropriately based on where you stand on Sagnia / Wilkins contributing

Shopping Groups: Seems like there are three main transfer groups to be handled in different ways, and some at different times.

Group 1 – Players with connections that might help sell themselves on NC State. Either local players, or players with connections to the staff or school. You are looking for these guys constantly and hoping that they are priced reasonably due to that connection.

Group 2 – Looking at the shopping list, we see that 7 (*) of the 12 guys he has yet to sign will have to be relatively cheap, many of them one-year rentals. Freshmen would come in handy as part of this group, but we don’t have any right now.  So heavily shopping the mid-majors early makes sense. There are 365 D1 schools with basketball programs. Of those, the Power Five Conference schools make up only 79. Meaning, there’s a lot more mid-majors than P5 schools, so the pool of players to look at is huge. Getting in there early while there are a lot to choose from makes sense. And, as the Wolfpack has benefited from in the past (Ex. DJ Burns), there is a lot of talent in that pool. You might find rotation players, like Hammond. But you also need solid practice players. You do a ton of analysis on this group immediately looking for diamonds.

Group 3 – Conversely, that also means that 4 or 5 (*) players are going to be expensive. Unless you can afford to pay top dollar and aren’t too concerned about running out of money before your roster is fully built, you might want to wait and do your homework on these guys. There are fewer ‘diamonds in the rough’ in this group because they get so much publicity, film and there are a mountain of metrics available.

It’s a Player’s Market

I would assume that most fan bases are freaking out right now, just like ours. And, partly because of that, coaches are feeling pressure to get players signed. And that is part of the reason that some of these early deals are so crazy – assuming the information provided is correct. The first wave of high-end players are likely to be getting their asking prices.

So, When Should We Panic?

At some point, the negotiating leverage will shift away from the fans and coaches saying, “Coach, if we don’t sign a major name soon we’re all going to die – and you will be first!!!!!!” and a little more toward the agents and players saying, “I know you have choices, my guy loves it there, let’s talk and get this done.”

That’s when the staff needs to have money left in the bank. That’s when we want to be able to say, “We will match that number, or counter, and offer you the opportunity to play for a great staff at a great basketball school.”

We aren’t close to being there yet. The portal has only been open 10 days, and players are still adding their names. (the portal passed 2,200 Wednesday) We won’t know the full list until midnight 4/21. There are probably good players yet to enter their names. Likewise there are probably those not taking any calls until they get the NBA feedback. And let’s not forget, Coach Gainey and Coach Brooks have track records as strong recruiters and they have both been through this before at this level.

• Last season our 2 leading scorers and rebounders in ACC play were Darrion Williams (committed the 59th day after the portal opened, 5/22), and Ven-Allen Lubin (committed Day 69, 6/1). Both committed after the first summer session started on May 14, 2025.
• This year the first session of summer school starts May 20. Many players are on campus beginning the summer S&C and skills work at that time.
• The second session of summer school starts June 29 when any stragglers show up.

Official Panic Day – May 21!

(I know, what’s the fun in waiting?)