TST Best Bets: April 18, 2026

LA is the only home underdog in Game 1 in any series this postseason, as the sportsbooks have little hope in the NBA’s all-time leading scorer forcing a competitive series against the Houston Rockets and their sixth-ranked defense in the league.

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First Pick: Denver Nuggets -7 over Minnesota Timberwolves

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Clippers, Thursday April 24th, 2025 in Inglewood, California.

Bruno De Witt Zanotto - The Sporting Tribune

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Clippers, Thursday April 24th, 2025 in Inglewood, California.

Rundown: The epic Nuggets-Timberwolves series two years ago where Edwards made his ascension to superstardom is tricking many into believing this will be the most exciting series of the first round.

However, much has changed in two years.

Minnesota was the top rated defense in the league that season, and while that unit led by four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert is still very good, it has fallen to eighth in the league this season.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, have had their best offensive season in the Jokic era, ranking first in the league in offensive rating despite missing their third-leading scorer Aaron Gordon for 46 games.

Gordon is a major swing factor in this series. The Nuggets are 27-9 when Gordon plays this season and 27-19 without him.

Two years ago, Minnesota exploited Gordon’s lack of three-point prowess to have Gobert roam off of him defensively to essentially double Jokic along with All-Star center Karl-Anthony Towns.

Gordon shot just 29% from distance that season, but in the two years since, has undergone a major shooting transformation as a shooter, hitting 43% and 38% from beyond the arc in the last two seasons.

Speaking of Towns, the Timberwolves stock of bigs to throw at Jokic looks a lot different this time around.

Minnesota traded its former No. 1 overall pick for forward Julius Randle following its Western Conference Finals loss to the Dallas Mavericks.

While Randle is an improved defender compared to Towns in most matchups, Towns was a big that could bump with Jokic in the post, which is something Randle is simply too small to do.

This will force Minnesota to put Gobert on Jokic as the primary defender for the majority of the series, instead of his preferred role as a roaming rim protector.

Against the Timberwolves this season, Jokic has averaged a monstrous statline of 35.8 points, 15.0 rebounds and 11.3 assists per game, demonstrating how much easier it is for him against a Minnesota defense without a double big starting lineup.

On Saturday, expect what should be a five-game series to kick off with a Denver blowout at home.

Second Pick: Los Angeles Lakers +5 over Houston Rockets

Rundown: LA is getting little to no respect in this series, and it’s understandable why.

It’s hard to back a team missing two of its three best players in a series, especially when it’s between a No. 4 and No. 5 seed that finished within one game of each other in the regular season.

But don’t underestimate the ability of arguably the greatest player of all time to turn back the clock to steal the first game of this series.

In his most recent playoff runs with the Lakers, James has started to show his age late after accruing minor injuries throughout the postseason, such as his 2022-2023 Western Conference Finals run where he tailed off against the Nuggets.

  However, James enters Saturday’s matchup off of six days of rest, the most he will have in any game of this series.

Additionally, while the majority of the injury focus has rightfully been on Doncic and Reaves, Kevin Durant enters the playoffs with a concerning knee injury, as he is listed as questionable for game one.

While Houston should prevail over the injury-riddled Lakers, Saturday’s opening game is the most likely opportunity for James to power LA to a win.