Two Times the Fun: Mariners at Twins Series Preview

Probable Pitchers

**Updated Stuff+ Explainer**

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

  

  | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Connor Prielipp (MiLB) | 82.2 | 27.0% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 45.5% | 4.03 | 3.54 | | Luis Castillo | 180.2 | 21.7% | 6.2% | 10.5% | 41.3% | 3.54 | 3.88 | The Twins promoted Connor Prielipp last week to make his major league debut against the Mets. He completed four innings, allowing two runs on four hits while striking out six. Entering the season, he was ranked as the Twins top pitching prospect and their third overall prospect. A pair of serious elbow injuries — one in college in 2021 and one in the minors in ‘23 — have curtailed his development somewhat, but his raw stuff has continued to look dominant. His best pitch is a superb slider that features tight, downward movement and higher than average velocity. His fastball is fine — it’s the pitch he can command the best at the moment — and his changeup has flashed some promise, though he has trouble with his feel for that offspeed pitch. | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Joe Ryan | 171 | 28.2% | 5.7% | 12.1% | 36.7% | 3.42 | 3.74 | | Logan Gilbert | 131 | 32.3% | 5.8% | 14.8% | 38.9% | 3.44 | 3.35 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 55.2% | 60.2% | 93.7 | 115 | 122 | 113 | 0.279 | | Sinker | 21.6% | 7.7% | 93.2 | 103 | 108 | 92 | 0.333 | | Splitter | 7.2% | 17.7% | 87.6 | 92 | 67 | 57 | 0.337 | | Curveball | 3.2% | 5.6% | 79.1 | 115 | 130 | 76 | 0.245 | | Slider | 12.7% | 8.8% | 87.9 | 101 | 69 | 140 | 0.323 | | Sweeper | 19.9% | 10.9% | 80.6 | 101 | 103 | 94 | 0.232 | Joe Ryan survived the Twins sell off last summer, and with Pablo López sidelined with Tommy John surgery this year, he has become the de facto ace of the pitching staff. His four-seam fastball is one of the best in baseball. He’s able to generate an extremely flat approach angle with the pitch thanks to a good amount of ride and a really low arm angle. His ongoing issue has been trying to figure out the right mix of secondary pitches to pair with his heater. He’s now throwing three different breaking balls and a splitter to keep batters off his fastball. | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Taj Bradley | 142.2 | 21.0% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 43.5% | 5.05 | 4.35 | | George Kirby | 126 | 26.1% | 5.5% | 12.8% | 44.1% | 4.21 | 3.37 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 29.1% | 47.6% | 96.2 | 102 | 88 | 98 | 0.384 | | Sinker | 17.4% | 0.9% | 96.0 | 102 | 108 | 121 | 0.348 | | Cutter | 31.4% | 14.3% | 89.6 | 105 | 137 | 109 | 0.320 | | Splitter | 8.9% | 21.1% | 91.2 | 94 | 67 | 99 | 0.269 | | Curveball | 13.2% | 16.2% | 81.8 | 110 | 118 | 154 | 0.118 | The Twins acquired Taj Bradley from the Rays last summer in a deal that has turned out to be somewhat of a coup. Back in 2023, Bradley was one of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in baseball, but he struggled to harness his impressive raw stuff across his first three seasons in the big leagues. Tampa Bay cut bait on him, and he continued to struggle in Minnesota after the trade, but he’s managed to put everything together this season. The biggest difference for him has been small adjustments to his cutter and splitter to differentiate those pitches from his fastball. His cutter is breaking glove side a little more and his splitter is diving out of the zone more often. With an extremely high arm slot and an arsenal that heavily relies on vertical movement, those small changes have had a huge impact on his results on the mound.

The Big Picture: