UFC 328 predictions: Can Sean Strickland be the first to stop Khamzat Chimaev?

(Hassan Ahmad, Yahoo Sports)

Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland are ready to go at it after a heated pre-fight press conference.

(Ed Mulholland via Getty Images)

185 pounds: Khamzat Chimaev (-600) vs. Sean Strickland (+425)

Chimaev has fallen into “love or hate” territory after his dominant title fight effort against Dricus du Plessis. Regardless of whether you found the performance to be entertaining, the man remains one of the most impressive dominators MMA has ever seen.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: There is clear bad blood here, and that seems like a bigger point of contention on Strickland’s end. We’ve seen him flounder or flourish when getting emotional before fights — his encounters with Israel Adesanya and du Plessis come to mind. Strickland’s jab-teep-heavy style never wavers much, unless you back down and allow him to dictate the pace firmly.

Unfortunately for him, Chimaev allows no one to do that.

Chimaev is the pressure. While Strickland has strong takedown defense, having stuffed 76% of his career attempts in the UFC, Chimaev has proven to be a one-of-a-kind mauler. And if MMA math says anything to you, du Plessis took Strickland down seven times across their two fights; Chimaev took du Plessis down 12 times in 25 minutes.

Now, I’m not an MMA math guy, so I don’t put much stock into it in the traditional sense. But du Plessis’ grappling success is telling. Strickland really hasn’t fought many aggressive grapplers at middleweight — like, at all. Even in his stellar win over Anthony Hernandez, Hernandez stunningly avoided his usual grappling approach, which cost him the fight.

Regardless, Chimaev is in his own category. From what I’ve heard about their training sessions at Xtreme Couture, Strickland bested Chimaev down the stretch. But how much stock can be put into anything that happens in the training room? We’ve heard those stories time and time again, and both men have had plenty of time to adjust since.

Either way, Chimaev can’t be bet against until he faces serious adversity, and Strickland traditionally doesn’t possess a lethal enough style to cause an epic stoppage. Making Chimaev angry and fired up may not play into the challenger’s favor in any way he hoped.

Pick: Chimaev

125 pounds: Joshua Van (-170) vs. Tatsuro Taira (+140)

The more you think about it, there are more parallels between UFC 328’s two title fights than meets the eye. At least in terms of a basic style expression.

Van is one of the most entertaining strikers to watch at present. The dude comes to scrap and scraps very well. No one who watched it live will ever forget the Brandon Royval classic. With Taira, you have perhaps the division’s best grappler by a sizable margin, a man who innovates transitions rarely seen in an MMA enclosure. Once on top, he’s trouble in every capacity.

Like Strickland, Van hasn’t quite fought anyone like Taira. The Japanese submission artist has sharpened his striking acumen with each fight, only further opening up his ability to drag the action to the mat. Despite that, this matchup remains fairly cut-and-dried.

Taira is proving to be more capable on the feet, but if it stays there, Van picks him apart like a surgeon. On the ground, Van is in a swimming pool with a shark who will bite his head off. Not to mention, Van suffered a fight-delaying injury mere weeks ago, when they were scheduled for UFC 327. I can’t imagine that helps his chances here. Taira is that dude.

Pick: Taira

265 pounds: Alexander Volkov (-185) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+150)

Oh, the UFC heavyweight division. Why does Simon & Garfunkel always start playing when I see you pop up?

In all seriousness, this is one of the more legit contender fights we can ask for from the big boys in 2026. Waldo Cortes-Acosta has become “something” in the division, which is good to see. But Alexander Volkov, while forgotten, hasn’t taken a noticeable back step. Swing his Ciryl Gane rematch split decision toward the correct outcome — a win for Volkov — and the Russian is on a six-fight win streak.

Sure, Volkov’s win over Jailton Almeida in his last time out was cheeks, but that was more on Almeida, hence why he’s no longer on the UFC roster.

I’ve said it once, and I’ll say it again: Volkov is a sniper of the highest degree at heavyweight. When he rattles off his combos with comfort, he’s as precise and dangerous as you’d expect a near-seven-foot human to be. Cortes-Acosta has the power in his hands to stop most heavyweight. He’ll just need to overcome Volkov’s reach. At this point, the Russian just feels like the ultimate spoiler, which is oh-so-heavyweight for a division that desperately needs any shred of new life.

Pick: Volkov

Sean Brady seeks redemption after his tough loss to Michael Morales.

(Cooper Neill via Getty Images)

170 pounds: Sean Brady (-170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+140)

Between the heavyweight fight and this one, UFC 328 has two would-be Fight Night main events on it. Don’t deny it. You know it’s true.

Joaquin Buckley was brutally exposed in his most recent fight against Kamaru Usman in Atlanta. Nearly one full year later, he has to overcome yet another wildly impressive wrestler in Sean Brady.

Unless Buckley has gone deep into the Caucasus Mountains to work exclusively on his wrestling, I’m not sold he can.

Brady is also looking to rebound here, after a tough first-round stoppage to the surging phenom Michael Morales. Buckley is a stark contrast to Morales in every way, but if that fight proved one thing, it’s that Brady can be caught and might have a more questionable chin than most realized. Buckley packs power, that’s no secret. But like the top two fights at UFC 328, he’ll need to keep Brady off of him. A grueling 15 minutes await.

Pick: Brady

155 pounds: King Green (-325) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+260)

Alright. I don’t usually flip-flop much when handing in my picks early for the staff picks above. But for this one, I did.

Sorry, Jeremy Stephens.

Though I do still find this matchup to be closer than perhaps the oddsmakers indicate, that recent King Green finish of Daniel Zellhuber is too much to overlook. And yes, Zellhuber may not be all he was cracked up to be, but it’s still impressive for a veteran like Green.

Stephens hasn’t been very fortunate in MMA since returning to the UFC. See the Mason Jones fight, for example. He put on a banger of an effort, but the wrestling of Jones was just too much. Don’t expect Green to go for any takedowns here.

Now I’m just talking myself into picking Stephens again.

I’ll resist. Green is the cleaner technician of the two on the feet, always carrying himself with confidence, and, most importantly, he’s trained consistently in MMA, whereas Stephens has been moonlighting in bare-knuckle boxing.

Pick: Green

Preliminary Notes

Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Alvarez is an awesome fight. Like, Fight of the Night is written all over that one. Welcome to welterweight, Alvarez — fere’s your former Bellator champion challenge. Don’t miss it, folks.

Jim Miller continues to extend his UFC record for most fights. That’s always fun. Meanwhile, Ateba Gautier is once again a massive favorite.

Top to bottom, the UFC 328 prelims have someone worth watching in every fight.

Quick picks:

• Ateba Gautier (-1400) def. Osman Diaz (+800)
• Yaroslav Amosov (-190) def. Joel Álvarez (+155)
• Grant Dawson (-185) def. Mateusz Rębecki (+150)
• Jared Gordon (-300) def. Jim Miller (+240)
• Roman Kopylov (+155) def. Marco Tulio (-190)
• Pat Sabatini (-220) def. William Gomis (+180)
• Baisangur Susurkaev (-750) def. Djorden Santos (+525)
• Jose Ochoa (-185) def. Clayton Carpenter (+150)