UFC 328 preview, ‘Khamzat vs. Strickland’ main card predictions

“If I was cornering Sean, I would recommend trying to push Khamzat back,” striking coach Sean Madden told UFC.com. “As great as his jab is, as good as his footwork is, he does tend to find himself moving backwards towards the fence when he’s operating like that, and the second his foot hits that black line, we know Khamzat is going to be shooting, if he hadn’t already. So that special awareness is crucial. I do like Sean’s knees and his push kicks, and the ability to fake and feint those a little, get Khamzat reacting to those is going to be beneficial. We saw him land the knee in that ‘Fluffy’ fight — it was kind of the beginning of the end in that third round — and I think that’s something they can take advantage of too, but you have to be ready to wrestle off that too because we know someone like Khamzat is gonna try to run through it even if that knee lands flush. Footwork is gonna be a big part of this. Khamzat doesn’t have the best footwork and it’s something they can exploit, but if he’s already got his head in your chest, the footwork is irrelevant, so you have to start early.“

The goal here is to stop Chimaev’s takedowns, or at least limit them enough to be able to score points on the feet. Strickland has a punishing jab and endless cardio, but he was also taken down six times by Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 297. That was two years ago and Strickland has grown since then, just as Chimaev has improved since his close call against Gilbert Burns at UFC 273 more than four years back. Much has been made about the ugly trash talk between Strickland and Chimaev — with most of it coming from the challenger — in a scene not unlike the UFC 229 drama between Conor McGregor and Khabib Nurmagomedov. “Notorious” was unable to rattle “The Eagle” and I doubt Chimaev is affected by Strickland’s word vomit. Assuming his cardio is the same as it was in his dominant performance against Du Plessis at UFC 319, I have to imagine “Borz” is feeling pretty good about his matchup this weekend in “The Garden State.”

Then again, this is the same fighter who suddenly falls apart with no explanation.

“With Khamzat, it’s his pace,” Madden continued. “It has to be because it’s probably the most ferocious on the UFC roster. His average fight time has gone up a little bit now with the Dricus (Du Plessis) fight going five rounds, but it’s not like that fight was competitive. His pace is unbelievable and is something that — I’ve told this before, but when we were out there (Stockholm) in 2022 when Bojan (Velickovic) was training with, I’ve never seen someone work as hard as he works; it was astounding. I know that led to a lot of sickness and injuries and stuff like that, but I still think it highlights the mentality that he has when it comes to fighting, competition, for wanting to be the best, and that translates to the pace we see in the fight. Add in his ability to dictate where the fight takes place almost the entire time we’ve seen him fight and his ferociousness, and it’s pretty remarkable; we haven’t seen too many like him. What makes this matchup interesting is that controlling the tempo is the essence of fighting. If I like to fight slow and you like to fight fast and you make me fight fast, I’m gonna have a problem with that. If I like to fight fast and you like to fight slow and you make me fight slow, I’m gonna struggle with that; I’m gonna get reckless, I’m gonna get undisciplined. That’s gonna be one of the things I’m paying attention to later — who can control the tempo of this fight?”

Strickland hasn’t really been tested by a wrestler like Chimaev so it’s difficult to predict how well he’ll respond. Anthony Hernandez, who is known as the “American Khamzat,” only attempted one takedown in their UFC Houston headliner, so that doesn’t help us much. Outside of Du Plessis, “Tarzan” has mostly competed in standup affairs with mixed results. I don’t seem him beating Khamzat unless an overconfident “Borz” beats himself and tries that dumb “Canelo Hands” strategy that cost Belal Muhammad the welterweight title. Sadly, a victory for Chimaev translates to a fight that is a slow-paced, tepid affair, which can be a lot to ask of fans who are already burned out after sitting there for a couple of hours.

Yawn.

Prediction: Chimaev def. Strickland by decision

125 lbs.: UFC Flyweight Champion “Fearless” Joshua Van (16-2) vs. Tatsuro ‘The Best’ Taira (18-1)

Joshua Van is the moneyline underdog for his first title defense, reinforcing a popular sentiment that Van has yet to establish himself as the best fighter in the division. That’s because “Fearless” captured the flyweight crown by way of injury to former division titleholder Alexandre Pantoja, who blew out his arm just 26 seconds into the opening frame of their UFC 323 title fight. Prior to his “Cannibal” contest, Van had a terrific 8-1 run, culminating in his “Fight of the Night” victory over Brandon Royval, who may be on the downside of his career after losing three of his last five. I guess my issue is that Van was able to reach the Pantoja fight without having to first get through the likes of flyweight stalwarts like Manel Kape and Brandon Moreno — or even Kyoji Horiguchi. You can argue that Royval was a sufficient springboard, though questions remain about Van’s ability to hang with elite grapplers adept at neutralizing front-foot strikers who plow forward with reckless abandon. To Van’s credit, his hurricane offense has worked, Charles Johnson notwithstanding, so there’s little reason to change it.

“I’m not surprised [about the odds] because almost every fight I was the underdog and I came out on top,” Van told CBS. “It’s going to be fireworks. You guys might be able to see my ground game, finally. Pantoja is who I wanted to see first but he needs some time to heal and hopefully we can run it back, but I love [the Taira fight] because he’s a well-rounded guy. A lot of people know him for his ground game but he actually has striking, too. Who is better to test myself against than someone like Tatsuro? Royval was my first five-round match and I learned a lot about confidence, cardio and striking. I learned a lot about being a champion from Brandon Royval. And (Cory) Sandhagen’s team are always welcoming to us, so I really appreciate all of their coaches and teammates. They have great skill and I tried to improve and get better every day.”

Tatsuro Taira is 26-years-old, two years older than Van, and it’s nice to see a division title being contested by young whippersnappers instead of the tired old guard. Despite his youth, the Japanese import has already compiled nearly 20 professional fights, with about half of them taking place inside the Octagon. Whether or not you think Taira passed or failed his first big test may depend on how you look at his performance against Brandon Royval at UFC Vegas 98, a five-round “Fight of the Night” defeat by split decision. I would categorize it as a learning experience, similar to Van’s loss to Johnson, and proof that Taira can hang in 25-minute dog fights. In addition, “The Best” looked every bit of his nickname in follow-up fights against Hyun Sung Park and former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno, two contests that ended by way of second-round finish. Offensively, Taira scores roughly three takedowns per 15 minutes of action and is successful in nearly 50% of his shots. That should be a concern for “Fearless” fans who remember that Van was taken down four times by Rei Tsuruya at UFC 313, especially considering that Tsuruya is not the same caliber of grappler as Tatsuro.

“Joshua Van has some pretty impressive boxing skills,” Taira said on Countdown to UFC 328. “The areas where I have the upper hand against Van, I’ve got the jiu-jitsu skill that he doesn’t have. My back control is very strong. Ever since I was a total beginner in BJJ, I loved having back control. My style hasn’t changed; I will still go for the finish. I’ll take down Van, ground and pound knockout, or choke him out. I want to finish in some way and win the belt.”

“It’s been my dream to take the UFC belt to Japan,” Taira later told UFC.com. “It’s not only my dream, but also the Japanese people’s dream, so I will do it.”

I would expect Van to come out and throw everything but the kitchen sink at Taira. What makes this fight great, is the challenger will throw it right back. That said, I think it’s only a matter of time before Taira finds the proper distance and starts stringing together takedowns. Van is no slouch on the ground so nothing is given once the fight hits the floor, though I do think the champion’s hubris will be his biggest liability on fight night.

Prediction: Taira def. Van by submission

265 lbs.: Alexander “Drago” Volkov (39-11) vs. Waldo “Salsa Boy” Cortes-Acosta (17-2)

I often wonder what the UFC heavyweight title picture would look like had Alexander Drago rightfully won a decision over Ciryl Gane at UFC 310 back in late 2024, a bout that had 19 of 20 media outlets scoring the contest in favor of “Drago.” I doubt he would have been paired with Jailton Almeida, a fight he won but also may have lost depending on how you scored it, but that’s kind of been the narrative of Volkov’s career. One day he’s on the precipice of title contention, the next day he’s keeping the gate for the next generation. The 6’7” Russian is currently ranked No. 2 in the heavyweight division and stands as the -145 favorite on the UFC 328 betting line. He’s a technical striker with an 80” reach but is not particularly hard to take down, though he’s been known to fire off a few takedowns of his own when the situation calls for it. His Ezekiel Choke over Tai Tuivasa at UFC 293 was a harsh reminder that Volkov is more than just a striker and when it comes to experience, “Drago” has fought the best of the best.

“He has hype, so everybody is watching him, and sometimes people forget that other fighters are also here,” Volkov told UFC.com about his UFC 328 opponent. “It’s not just about winning because you can beat fighters with not a very high level and think you beat very hard opponents. So many people that he beat, I can get on short notice and beat them too, so it’s not a big deal. His main point is that he’s very confident in himself. The fight where he got eye-poked and then came back, he showed that. He’s very confident in himself until the end, he has hard punch, he’s very durable, but I should test him. He’s never met a guy with my skills — so experienced, so well-rounded. I should test him for sure, and I think I can beat him. This is not a step back, fighting with him is a good way to show everybody I am still here. I still want to fight for the title next, and everybody should watch this fight and notice me as well.”

Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a former minor league baseball player from Dominican Republic who cut his teeth on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2022. In the four years that followed, “Salsa Boy” compiled a stellar record of 10-2 inside the Octagon with five finishes — all by way of knockout. That includes his UFC 324 destruction of Derrick Lewis back in January, though it’s hard to take that win seriously since Lewis has basically become the UFC version of Bob Sapp late in his career: show up, look mean, then fold up like a middle school Trapper Keeper at the first sign of danger. Cortes-Acosta has done an admirable job beating up the bottom of the heavyweight barrel and it will be interesting to see how “Salsa Boy” deals with Volkov’s reach. The Dominican used three takedowns to neutralize vaunted striker Robelis Despaigne at UFC St. Louis and may adopt a similar gameplan here, as well. Despite his promise and recent string of victories, his decision loss to Sergei Pavlovich at UFC Shanghai is less than a year old.

“Volkov is a very intelligent fighter, somebody that you have to be very cautious with, somebody that’s faced other fighters, he’s faced so much competition so you’ve seen what he offers,” Cortes-Acosta said during the UFC 328 media day. “He’s somebody that smartly avoids confrontation, so you have to take the confrontation up to him, take it up to him to win. I think that after the fight that we had between Volkov and Gane from before, consider the result of that fight, and consider what [current heavyweight champion] Tom [Aspinall] said, he wants to wait for the winner of this fight for the interim title. Because of the result of the fight, and Volkov having beaten Ciryl, I don’t think they want to make that fight again. So I do think that I should be ready for a fight, and I could be fighting for the title if all the chips fall.”

Cortes-Acosta has won the majority of his UFC fights by being the better athlete. He’ll certainly be more agile than his towering foe, though I’m not sure he can throw anything at Volkov that “Drago” has not already seen after 17 years as a professional fighter. I can see “Salsa Boy” using his wrestling to shut down Volkov and squeak by with a victory, but the more likely scenario is that Volkov boxes him up and ships him out.

Prediction: Volkov def. Cortes-Acosta by decision

170 lbs.: Sean Brady (18-2) vs. Joaquin “New Mansa” Buckley (21-7)

Sean Brady got obliterated by undefeated welterweight wunderkind Michael Morales as part of the UFC 322 event last fall in New York, a loss that is fairly forgivable when you consider what the red-hot Ecuadorian has done across the division. Brady has always been a limited fighter in terms of offense, sporting a below-average striking game balanced by above-average grappling. Brady has zero knockout wins under the UFC banner and still managed to work his way into title contention thanks to a suffocating wrestling attack that averages nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes of action. That said, his submission victory over Leon Edwards has not aged particularly well after watching “Rocky” suffer a historic collapse over the last two years, which forces the question as to whether or not Brady is a legitimate contender or beneficiary of timely matchmaking. Keep in mind, his other big wins came over shopworn veterans Gilbert Burns and Kelvin Gastelum, which followed a technical knockout loss to Belal Muhammad.

That’s my game plan essentially for every fight. Go out there, take you down, and I just think I’m more of a submission threat than Kamaru is,” he said.

“This fight’s simple: it’s Buckley who’s going to want to keep it on the feet, I’m going to want to take it to the ground, and it’s going to be whoever can get there first,” Brady said during the UFC 328 media day. “That’s my game plan essentially for every fight. Go out there, take you down, and I just think I’m more of a submission threat than Kamaru is. I’m sure Buckley’s doing what Buckley likes to do — try to sell a fight, which is fine. I have no bad blood against anybody that I’m fighting. I’m a grown man, I don’t have grudges, or personal beef with dudes. We’re going to fight Saturday, and that’s it for me. He tries to be more of a character, which I’m not and I’m not going to play into it, and I haven’t. It’s social media. Like, that sh*t’s not real.”

Joaquin Buckley would probably be in the discussion for next welterweight title shot had he not completely shit the bed against former 170-pound champion Kamaru Usman atop the UFC Atlanta fight card last June. There’s really no way to spin what happened in their five-round affair but if you’re into numbers, consider that Buckley was controlled for a whopping 13 minutes and landed just 51 strikes in 25 minutes of action. Much like Brady, that lame-duck performance erased a lot of the momentum he built by stopping welterweight mainstays Colby Covington, Stephen Thompson, and Vicente Luque, part of a six-fight winning streak that dated back to late 2022. If you’re a Buckley fan, you have to be worried about the takedown because there’s little doubt that Brady studied the Usman fight and built his gameplan based on that blueprint. Working in Brady’s favor is the fact that he’s 33 years old and in the back half of his competitive prime, making him a more dangerous threat than elder statesman like Usman and Covington, at least from a wrestling perspective.

“I really get to show people where my level is,” Buckley told UFC.com. “I do understand that Sean Brady is grappling-heavy, but his strength lies in one or two things when it comes to grappling. So, I get to show off some of my skillset too in this fight, and get to show that I’m a well-rounded fighter. I’ll outdo what Michael Morales did, or outdo what even Belal did. Both of those guys, they did finish Sean Brady, but nobody ever knocked him out. I think that’s one thing that Sean Brady, he’s trying to prepare himself for it, and he wants to keep himself safe, so he’s going to force the shot. He’s going to force a lot of bad positions which, yet again, is going to lead him to be looking at those bright lights.”

All fights start on the feet and Brady will be in mortal danger every second he remains upright. Despite his questionable fight I.Q., Buckley is a terrific striker with a dynamic offense that complements his 76” reach — four inches longer than Brady. It’s easy to be seduced by the striking of “New Mansa” and Brady is not invulnerable, I just think he wins this war of attrition with his wits, using a smart (some might say boring) gameplan that requires him to spam takedowns until he can get the fight into his comfort zone. On the bright side, for Buckley as well as for the fans, this fight is only three rounds, so at least we have that going for us.

Prediction: Brady def. Buckley by decision

155 lbs.: King Green (34-17-1, 1 NC) vs. Jeremy “Lil Heathen” Stephens (29-22, 1 NC)

King (Bobby) Green and Jeremy Stephens have combined for nearly 70 wins across their lengthy MMA careers. Unfortunately, they’ve also combined for nearly 40 losses. I don’t think anyone’s going to complain about their records because both combatants are fan-friendly action fighters. Green has won “Fight of the Night” honors four times in his UFC career while Stephens has earned it six times. It looked like Father Time was finally catching up to the 39 year-old Green after he was finished in consecutive losses against Paddy Pimblett and Mauricio Ruffy, but the former Strikeforce standout has since rebounded with back-to-back victories over Lance Gibson Jr. and Daniel Zellhuber, the latter of which ended by way of knockout. There’s not a lot to break down when it comes to Green’s fighting game, technically speaking, because he’s good everywhere and great nowhere. My biggest concern coming into UFC 328 is his durability, as Green has been knocked out in four of his last five losses.

“I’m becoming more psycho because I’m realizing it now,” Green said at the UFC 328 media day. “I want to tell Jeremy, I just want to find out who’s more psycho because I believe he is, too. He has a little bit of that in him, too, and I can see it. The things he’s done, I’m like, ‘Oh, interesting.’ Let’s find out who’s more psycho, because I’m going to go stand in front of you, and look him crazy in his eyes, and let’s f*cking go. And just, pow, pow, pow, and he hit me and I hit him. Pow, pow, pow. It’s going to go crazy. It’s going to be something crazy, and let’s find out who’s more psycho. I’m willing to do it.”

Jeremy Stephens is also 39 but was already fighting in UFC a year before Green made his pro MMA debut. “Lil Heathen” started out with a submission loss to Din Thomas on the UFC 71: “Liddell vs. Jackson” preliminary card and has struggled to stay consistent in the years since, at least in terms of wins and losses. He recently spent some time in both BKFC and PFL to unfavorable results, but his relationship with UFC CEO Dana White and his tenure inside the Octagon got him welcomed back with a simple phone call. Unfortunately, Stephens is just 1-8 dating back to early 2018 and has been finished in half of those losses. On the plus side, he did manage to stop Eddie Alvarez in their bareknuckle boxing match roughly one year back. Like Green, there are concerns about his durability at this stage of his career and he may no longer have the beard to survive a firefight, which is pretty much all he has to offer (he’s never won a UFC fight by submission).

“UFC is my dream,” Stephens said at the UFC 328 media day. “I’ve been watching this sh*t since like fifth grade with my grandfather. I was like, ‘Man, I want to do that.’ To be doing it as long as I’ve done it, I know this is my calling. To get that calling taken away and then have it back, you have no idea what it feels like to be here. grew my name inside the UFC. To get the following and then create something out of nothing? Most people get canned from the UFC and they get fat. They f*cking retire. They lost their mental health. I’m not even joking. That’s not even funny. That’s just f*cking facts. I have a big brother that’s looking down, Anthony Johnson. I’ve seen him do it. He got outside the UFC, moved up weight classes, and he was just banging heads. Next thing you know, he was banging on the UFC door again. They let him back, and then he ends up fighting for a title. I kind of kept that inspiration.”

Both Green and Stephens are competent offensive wrestlers with above average takedown defense. I’m not sure how much wrestling we’ll see from either combatant considering what’s at stake, professionally speaking. The best way to hang around at this age is by putting on exciting fights or scoring highlight-reel finishes. Green may be slightly more refined, but I think Stephens summons one last “Knockout of the Night” performance and reminds fans why he was so fun to watch before the mileage caught up to him.

Prediction: Stephens def. Green by knockout

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