UFC Perth best betting props, parlays and picks | Jack Della vs. Prates

Jack Della Maddalena (-102) vs. Carlos Prates (-118)

It was back in November when Della Maddalena lost his UFC Welterweight title to Islam Makhachev. That, outisde of Khamzat Chimaev’s drubbing of Dricus du Plessis, was one of the more dominating title grabs we’ve seen in recent years. In that bout Della Maddalena looked lost. He grimaced through the fight, as if seriously upset about what was happening to him, in a way we don’t usually see top fighters do. At the time I thought he had suffered some sort of injury and was just trying to push through the pain.

That loss was the Aussie’s first defeat since his first and second pro fights ever, back in 2016. He’s won 18 since then, including eight in UFC (including his decision win over Belal Muhammad to capture the belt a year ago).

Prates is 6-1 in UFC in just three years of action. He announced himself with a KO on Contender series and since then has knocked out Trevin Giles, Charles Radtke, Neil Magny, Li Jingliang, Geoff Neal and, most recently, Leon Edwards (see that here). That’s a stunning record for the 32 year-old Brazilian. His only loss is a decision to Ian Machado Garry about a year ago.

I think we’ve earned this fight. We’ve had to put up with a lot of drek on these fight cards lately, but — on paper — this feels like a stand up war just waiting to happen.

These are two of the most exciting, technical and creative strikers we have right now. Della Maddalena is more Queensbury rules, whereas Prates is more Muay Thai (as his tattoo suggests). But both are capable of entering a flow state where they seem to string strikes together like they are playing Tekken.

They have both come undone when someone has refused to stay in front of them. Makhachev did that by putting Della Maddalena on the ground. Machado Garry did that by circling away from Prates and making him chase him.

I don’t think there are any doubts here that Prates is going to go forwards looking to attack. I’m wondering if Della Maddalena, who must be eager to get back in the win column, might adopt more of a Machado Garry approach, though?

I can see Della Maddalena wanting to take this fight into deep waters. Prates seems to have serious cardio issues (I wonder why?). It would be surprising, to me, if Della Maddalena didn’t try and force Prates to go into those fourth and fifth rounds here. Getting Prates into those rounds is easier said than done, though.

Prates will have five inches of reach on Della Maddalena and he’s one of the more accomplished and aggressive strikers Della Maddalena has ever faced. At times Della Maddalena has allowed himself to get drawn into stand and bang brawls and he’s been lucky to come out on top of those (versus Kevin Holland and the late replacement Bassil Hafez).

I think this is a really hard fight to call. I’m leaning Della Maddalena because I think he’s going to be desperate for a win after what we saw against Makhachev. I think that means he might give us some wrestling in this bout. That’s out of character for him, but against Belal Muhammad he showed he has some decent grappling skills (obviously nothing near what it takes to be competitive against Makhachev, though). I think he might be a better wrestler than Prates (who was taken down twice by Edwards and four times by Machado Garry).

Some reactive wrestling and evasive movement could really put Prates in trouble in the later rounds. Della Maddalena then might let loose and find some success on the feet. I’ll bet that this is what we’re going to see on Saturday.

Best bet: Jack Della Maddalena moneyline (-102)

Beneil Dariush (+350) vs. Quillan Salkilld (-455)

Dariush is coming off a 16 second KO loss to Benoit Saint Denis in November (see it here). He missed weight for that bout. Before that he dominated Renato Moicano. His previous fight to that was his 2023 TKO loss to Arman Tsarukyan (see it here).

Salkilld remains one of the hottest prospects in the game, thanks to his first round submission win over Jamie Mullarkey in January. That was his fourth win since coming off Contender Series in September, 2024. Among his wins is his brutal headkick KO over Nasrat Haqparast (see it here). The 26 year-old is now 11-1 with his only loss being his pro debut in 2021.

It’s hard to not be impressed by what Salkilld has been doing. His striking looks deadly and his wrestling looks suffocating. Dariush is the best fighter he’s ever faced, but he just turned 36. That’s not super old, but given the punishment Dariush has taken over his career, it feels like he’s older than that.

Of his seven career losses, six of them are by KO/TKO. Three of those stoppages are in his last four fights. It feels like Dariush is having trouble seeing the punches coming his way. That’s bad news when he’s up against a guy in his prime with a lot of power in his hands and feet.

Salkilld also has three inches of reach and a lot of size on Dariush.

Salkilld by KO/TKO is -185. That’s tempting, since Dariush’s grappling skills could keep him safe from a submission. The round total is 1.5 with the over at +114 and the under at -145. I’m feeling like this goes under, since Dariush seems to go down early against heavy hitters (all those three recent stoppages were in the first round). He was also finished in the first round by Alexander Hernandez and Ramsey Nijem.

I’ll go with the under here, expecting Salkilld to keep his status as the most exciting prospect in the promotion right now.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-145)

Tim Elliott (+225) vs. Steve Erceg (-278)

Elliott last fought in August. That’s when he showed Kai Asakura that there’s levels to this game. He took the RIZIN product down, with ease, and submitted him with a guillotine (see it here). That was his first fight since a submission win over Sumudaerji in 2023. The 39 year-old is now 10-11 in the promotion.

Perth’s Erceg got back in the win column in August with a decision over Ode’ Osbourne. That snapped a three fight losing streak. Last March he lost a unanimous decision to Brandon Moreno. I didn’t think he looked terrible there, though. Before that he was TKO’d in the first round by Kai Kara-France (see it here). Before that Erceg lost his fast-tracked title shot to Alexandre Pantoja. Erceg would have probably won that fight if he kept things on the feet and didn’t give Pantoja a break by switching to a wrestling attack midway through the fight.

Osbourne hurt Erceg on the feet early. That turned Erceg into a wrestler in the following rounds. Osbourne’s speed was a big reason for his success on the feet. The same can be said of Kara-France in his fight with Erceg. Elliott will not have a speed advantage in this fight.

Erceg’s striking is a cut above Elliott’s, so I’m not expecting any surprises in that department. If he’s smart, Erceg will look to keep this fight standing for fifteen minutes.

Elliott, whose grappling is his only path to victory here, will be under pressure to get this thing to the floor. Erceg’s takedown defense has been a little leaky. It’s 62 percent on paper, but he’s been taken down in every UFC fight other than his win over Matt Schnell and quick loss to Kara France.

I suspect Elliott gets Erceg down at least once in this fight. On the ground, though, I’m not sure Elliott can impose his will on Erceg. And the age factor is a major reason for that. Elliott is 40 in December and nine years older than Erceg.

I think Elliott loses this, but I don’t think he gets stopped. He’s hella tough with only one KO loss in his 35 fight career. I think Erceg gets the decision win.

Best bet: Steve Erceg by decision (-110)

Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid

Rahiki had an early contender for Fight of the Year in March. He and Harry Hardwick went at it for two rounds until Hardwick’s corner pulled him out (due to a badly broken jaw). That bout earned both men a Performance of the Night bonus. That was Rahiki’s debut, not including his stoppage win on Contender Series in October. Rahiki is now 8-0 with all finishes. Rahiki was gearing up to face Jack Jenkins on Saturday — what a fight that would have been! Sadly, Jenkins had to pull out due to injury.

Schmid has been pulled off the local scene with a few days notice to make up the numbers here. He’s only 4-1 as a pro. He had a long amateur career, where he went 7-3.

The odds aren’t out for this right now, but I expect Rahiki to be a massive favorite. Schmid feels like a lamb being led to slaughter here. He’s a City Kickboxing guy and he does have some versatility, but he looks too loose and wild on the feet for me. I think Rahiki is going to pour it on and probably get quick finish here.

Best bet: Marwin Rahiki by TKO

Shamil Gaziev (+110) vs. Brando Pericic (-130)

Gaziev was on a nice little run until he met Waldo Cortes-Acosta in November. He got starched in just over a minute by one of the best fighters of 2025 (see it here). Cortes-Acosta had taken that fight on about four days notice, two weeks after beating Ante Delija. Before that loss Gaziev had starched Thomas Petersen (see it here) and taken an easy decision over Don’Tale Mayes.

Pericic has been a wrecking ball since joining UFC in 2025. He ran through Elisha Ellison in his debut (see it here) and earned a Performance of the Night bonus. After that he ran through Louie Sutherland. The 31 year-old City Kickboxing project is now 6-1.

Gaziev gets hit a lot. He absorbs 3.97 sig. strikes a minute (that’s more than he lands) and he has a 45 percent defense. Poor defense isn’t going to do well at Heavyweight, especially against those rare heavyweights who throw volume.

Pericic got off 19 sig. strikes in 108 seconds on route to finishing Sutherland. He landed 29 in 115 seconds against Ellison. He did this with a 64 percent accuracy. I think he’s going to find Gaziev’s big head an easy target to hit.

Best bet: Brando Pericic moneyline (-130)

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Tai Tuivasa (-205) vs. Louie Sutherland (+170)

Tuivasa is on a six fight losing streak. That’s probably the worst active streak in the promotion right now. Last time out, after a two year hiatus, he lost a decision to Tallison Teixeira. That fight was equal parts hilarious and depressing as both men gassed out early and then stumbled their way through three rounds of hugging and panting. Before that loss Tuivasa dropped a split decision to Jairzinho Rozenstruik. The last win for ‘Bam Bam’ was against Derrick Lewis, by KO, in 2022.

The last time Louie Sutherland went to Australia he was left without a dance partner, after Justin Tafa blew his weight cut (and was subsequently cut from the promotion). That was supposed to be Sutherland’s debut. His debut came months later and ended in a heel hook from Valter Walker (see it here). In January Sutherland lost to Brando Pericic by first round TKO.

I don’t have high hopes for this bout.

It feels like Sutherland isn’t good enough to put Tuivasa away and Tuivasa isn’t young enough to put Sutherland away. I think we might be heading for a repeat of that God awful Teixeira fight. The oddsmakers disagree, though. They’ve set the round total at 1.5. I’ll take the over (even if it would be much more fun for everyone if this went under).

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-125)

UFC Perth ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Cam Rowston (-180) vs. Robert Bryczek (+150)

Rowston has stolen some spotlight on both of UFC’s last two trips down under. In January, his finished Cody Brundage with a second round TKO. Before that he TKO’d Andre Petroski (see it here). Both wins were accompanied by memorable promos on the mic.

Bryczek TKO’d Brad Tavares in September. Before that he lost a decision to Ihor Potieria.

Bryczek looked good when he cracked Tavares’ iron chin. I think that might have more to do with Tavares’ age and past battles catching up to him, though. Bryczek certainly can’t expect Rowston to back off him and give him space like Tavares did.

This might be Rowston’s toughest fight to date, but I think his size, speed and power will see him through it. I think there’s a good chance of a finish in this one, too. Rowston has a lot of power, but so does Bryczek. Both these guys really put everything into their swings and I think someone is going to end up missing and then getting cracked.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-180)

Junior Tafa (-205) vs. Kevin Christian (+170)

Tafa moved down to Light Heavyweight last year and has gone 0-2 in his new division. In his last fight he was submitted by Billy Elekana (see it here). Before that he was submitted by Tuco Tokkos (see it here).

The 6’7” Christian also lost to Elekana in his last fight, by technical submission (see it here). That was his proper debut, after he won his Contender Series fight by submission.

I’m going to keep fading Tafa in this weight class until he shows me something. He’s not seemed to have sped up much despite dropping all those pounds and he seems to have issues with his submission defense. Christian is a long and lanky grappler who has mostly won by submission.

His five inch reach advantage might be able to keep Tafa out of punching range and allow him to grab and drag him down without taking any damage.

Best bet: Kevin Christian moneyline (+170)

Jacob Malkoun (-1200) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+750)

Malkoun dominated Torrez Finney in January, earning a lopsided decision over him. That was his first fight since he TKO’d Andre Petroski back in March, 2024 (see it here). He’s currently 5-3 in UFC and has been with the promotion since 2020.

Meerschaert has lost four straight, three by stoppage. His last fight was in November. That’s when Kyle Daukaus KO’d him to punch his ticket to the White House (see it here). Before that he was TKO’d by Michal Oleksiejczuk (see it here).

Wow, look at those odds.

Meerschaert is getting buried by Vegas for this fight. You can’t blame them, too much, though. Meerschaert has looked ready for retirement in his last few fights and it certainly seems like he’s being flown over to Australia as cannon fodder. I don’t think it’s totally impossible that he does something surprising, though, against Malkoun who is solid, but not exactly spectacular.

With the odds that crazy you’ve either got to take a swing on Meerschaert, hoping he pulls a submission out of nowhere, or look at the over/under. The round total is 2.5. I think Malkoun likely finishes this thing, with strikes. He lands over 4.5 sig. strikes a minute at an above average accuracy clip (58 percent). That’s all probably going to be too much for the 38 year-old to take.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-166)

Colby Thicknesse (-135) vs. Vince Morales (+114)

Thicknesse earned his first UFC win in September, taking a hard fought decision over former hot prospect Josias Musasa (which may have been helped by an epic groin kick). Thicknesse had debuted with the company, on short notice, to fight Aleksandre Topuria in February, 2025. He lost that fight by unanimous decision, but earned some respect while doing so.

Morales currently has a 3-8 UFC record (not including his loss on Contender Series). He’s lost his last three bouts, against Raul Rosas Jr., Elijah Smith and Taylor Lapilus, all by decision.

Thicknesse used his grappling to get by Musasa. He’s probably going to have more issues trying to do that with Morales. Morales is so crafty on the ground. If he was ten years younger, I think he probably out-foxes Thicknesse and pieces together a decision.

He’s not ten years younger, though. He’s actually nine years older than Thicknesse. I think Thicknesse will probably be able to score some takedowns, but not hold Morales down for long periods of time. On the feet, though, he should be able to out-score Morales there (who has a 37 percent accuracy on his sig. strikes and absorbs more than he lands).

Best bet: Colby Thicknesse moneyline (-135)

Ben Johnston (-148) vs. Wes Schultz (+124)

Johnston is making his debut here. He’s 35 and just 5-1. He’s coming to the promotion without any appearances on UFC feeder products. He’s won all his pro fights by stoppage, mostly in Eternal MMA.

Schultz made his proper debut in February and was starched by Damian Pinas (see it here). Schultz earned his UFC contract with a Suloev stretch over on Contender Series. That was his second appearance on that show. In 2024 he was TKO’d by Mansur Abdul-Malik.

Johnston appears to have decent boxing fundamentals and he can be pretty nasty in the clinch. Schultz, at this point, appears to have an immature striking game (exemplified by very soft looking kicks). Pinas hurt him with pretty much everything he threw.

I think Johnston is able to land some hard shots on him and maybe get the finish.

Best bet: Ben Johnston moneyline (-148)

Jonathan Micallef (-238) vs. Themba Gorimbo (+195)

Micallef is 2-0 to start his UFC career. In his debut he kicked the heck out of Kevin Jousset to earn a decision. In his next bout, which happened in January, he choked out Oban Elliott (see it here). That bout had some bad blood and saw Micallef celebrate over Elliott after the finish.

Gorimbo has lost his last two bouts. In November he dropped a decision to Jeremiah Wells. Before that he was choked out by Vicente Luque’s famous anaconda choke (see it here). That all spoiled a four fight winning streak for Gorimbo, which included a decision over Ramiz Brahimaj.

I really like what I’ve seen from Micallef so far. His kicks, to the leg, body and head, have lots of snap on them and very little wind-up. He also has above average grappling. He’s been given quite the step up in opponent here, though.

Gorimbo is a smothering wrestler, who doesn’t need to get you down to totally drain you. He’s also a long and accurate striker (60 percent on sig. strikes). Gorimbo does seem to fight quite emotionally, though. He seems to get frustrated at times and almost self sabotage himself towards either a loss or an uninspiring win (when he has the opportunity for a finish).

Despite Gorimbo’s mentality, I do think he’s a very dangerous opponent for Micallef. And it’s mostly because I think his takedowns are going to really affect Micallef’s kicking game. Gorimbo is always looking for single-legs, so if Micallef is throwing that leg out there, Gorimbo is probably going to be able to snatch it up and take him down.

I think this could be a really close fight. I think Micallef might just be able to get it done, especially since — for how good Gorimbo is at taking guys down — he’s got pretty poor takedown defense himself and he is really bad at getting up off his back.

Best bet: Jonathan Micallef moneyline (-238)

Dom Mar Fan (+170) vs. Kody Steele (-205)

Fan, aka ‘Street Buddha’, won a fun back-and-forth fight with Sangwook Kim at UFC 325 in January. That was Fan’s proper UFC debut and it clinched him the Road to Asia Lightweight tournament. Fan, who fights out of Brisbane, is 9-2 as a pro. Both his losses are to Quillan Salkilld, both by rear naked choke in the Eternal MMA promotion.

Steele lost a Fight of the Night opposite Rongzhu in February, 2025. That was his first fight since winning on Contender series in October 2024. He’s 7-1 with most his fights happening in Fury FC. He’s been around on the pro grappling seen, too, facing the likes of Gregory Rodrigues, Mason Fowler and Tye Ruotolo.

Steele was chewed up on the feet against Rongzhu. Rongzhu hurt him, repeatedly, with his left hook and put 125 sig. strikes on him. Steele only offered up 59 in return. Steele has a tendency to get into brawls, despite having a grappling advantage over his opponent. That must be maddening for his coaches.

He has the grappling advantage over Fan, but will he show us that? If he’s just going to strike with Fan, he’s in trouble. Fan has four inches of reach on him and he showed a great straight left in his fight with Kim. If Steele keeps his right hand low in this fight, like he did against Rongzhu, he’s going to get touched up a lot.

I really question Steele’s fight IQ, so I’m going for the underdog here (who should be buoyed by the hometown crowd support).

Best bet: Dom Mar Fan moneyline (+170)

UFC Perth Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Salkilld vs. Dariush – First Minute Finish (+600)

Salkilld has some ultra quick finishes. Dariush has some ultra quick losses. If this goes to script, we might see Salkilld score another highlight reel stoppage.

Two-bet parlay: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kevin Christian (+629)

I hit with my Roani Barclos and Eric McConico parlay last week. I’m going with two underdog here in a parlay, again. Dom Mar Fan is a fun fighter and Kody Steele has really underperformed lately. Kevin Christian is a long submission artist and Junior Tafa keeps getting submitted!

Tai Tuivasa to win by KO/TKO/DQ in round 2 (+450)

I really don’t want this fight to go the distance. I fear it’s going to be a long slog. Maybe Sutherland spends a round on top of Tuivasa, with Tuivasa wrapping him up and saving his energy and then, in the second, Tuivasa is able to uncorck something that puts us out of our misery. Then, shoeys for everyone!

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