UFC Perth predictions

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Jack Della Maddalena (2, P4P-12) vs. Carlos Prates (7)

Perth fans could be in store for an explosive knockout in the main event, but more likely at the conclusion of a tactical standup battle than an all-out brawl.

Jack Della Maddalena’s rise to the top was anything but smooth. Even before he stepped into the octagon, “JDM” was 0-2 to begin his pro career and there’s an alternate universe where he decided this whole MMA thing wasn’t worth the trouble and instead focused on rugby or something. He stuck with it, rattled off 10 straight Ws, then hit the ground running in the UFC.

There were several moments where Della Maddalena’s title hunt could have been derailed. In matchups with Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland, the Australian standout was put to the test in hard three-round fights, and then he almost fell short on the cards against Gilbert Burns before blasting the longtime contender with a knee late in the third round. Then there was the five-round war with Belal Muhammad that made Della Maddalena a champion.

All of this is to say that Della Maddalena is unlikely to just run through Carlos Prates and vise-a-versa. These two have surely studied plenty of tape on each other, so they’ll be doubly prepared for every feint, counter, and counter-counter that the other deploys. Expect a lot of tense, inconclusive clashes, with each fighter throwing strikes that are just inches away from ending things.

After Della Maddalena’s humbling loss to Islam Makhachev, I predicted he’d grow exponentially from his first UFC defeat. So I’m picking him based on assumptions. I’m assuming he’s leveled up his striking defense. I’m assuming he won’t let Prates take him down in the off chance Prates decides to wrestle. I’m assuming Della Maddalena’s mental game is stronger than ever. This could all be wrong and Prates could leave him flat on his back as he has so many others.

Della Maddalena by knockout, Round 3.

Pick: Della Maddalena

Beneil Dariush (13) vs. Quillan Salkilld

Beneil Dariush, for all you’ve done and for what is about to be done to you Saturday night, we salute you.

Let’s not sugarcoat it, this matchup is meant to showcase Quillan Salkilld and officially announce him as a top 15 fighter in the lightweight rankings. Dariush is by far the most accomplished opponent Salkilld has faced yet, so this would be a meaningful win for Salkilld even if Dariush’s best days are behind him.

Skillwise, Dariush still has what it takes to tussle with top 155ers, but it’s clear as day his reflexes and durability aren’t what they used to be. His idea of defense has always been to hit the other guy first and while that’s led to plenty of success in the past, it’s not a sound strategy against the younger Salkilld. Dariush’s chin is eventually going to get tested and I don’t like its chances of holding up for long.

Salkilld also has more than enough grappling to keep Dariush off of him, meaning there are few paths to victory for Dariush, even given his sizable experience advantage. I see Salkilld knocking him out in the first.

Pick: Salkilld

Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (14)

Tim Elliott loves to play the spoiler and he’s going to give Steve Erceg plenty of trouble. The one-time UFC title challenger proudly describes his style as “awkward,” and he lives up to that description every time he goes in there to scrap. Whether it’s his herky-jerky movement or his relentless ground game, Elliott will force Erceg to be his best version of himself or risk embarrassment in front of the home crowd.

Fortunately for Erceg, the name of the game for him is consistency. It’s his steady demeanor that will help him avoid frustration as Elliott jukes and slips around the cage. Offense might be hard to come by early on, but Erceg’s patience will eventually be rewarded as he outboxes Elliott. I’m even more excited to see these two battle on the mat, because Erceg has an effective if unspectacular ground game, and he’s just as likely to catch a submission as Elliott is.

Love the matchmaking here and hate to see either fighter lose, but I think Erceg gets the decision.

Pick: Erceg

Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid

So this is a strange one.

Australia’s own Jack Jenkins was originally in this spot, where he was expected to present a stiff challenge to the undefeated, but unproven Marwan Rahiki. An injury forced Jenkins out, leading to the unheralded Ollie Schmid getting the call on less than a week’s notice, so fans are still getting an Aussie to root for, but one in a far less favorable position.

To put it nicely, the 25-year-old Schmid is nowhere near a UFC-level product, even considering how far the bar has been lowered in recent years. He’s 4-2, with all but one of his wins coming against an opponent who has zero wins, and he has a respectable smattering of amateur experience as well. Oh, and he trains at City Kickboxing. That’s about it.

Rahiki should have this. BUT… if Schmid were to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the year, it would be because Rahiki has been fairly hittable even as he’s worked his way to an 8-0 record. There is absolutely a world where Schmid goes for broke and smacks Rahiki with the kind of unorthodox strike you’d only see on the regional scene and destroys dozens of ill-advised parlays.

I’m not expecting it, though.

Pick: Rahiki

Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic

This is quite the clash of styles we have with this heavyweight pairing, with Shamil Gaziev more inclined to look for power shots from range, and Brando Pericic always ready to do his best impression of a wood chipper if his opponent gets too close.

I’m curious to see if Pericic will press the action here because he might not have a choice? Gaziev’s recent loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta happened because he was overeager, so I assume he’ll dial down his aggression down against the dangerous Pericic. Both fighters have one-shot KO power, the question is who can reach optimal range first.

Right now, it feels like no one at heavyweight is safe, so Pericic could join Josh Hokit as one of the division’s surprising risers this year, but I favor Gaziev slightly because he’s faced better competition (even if he hasn’t always beaten them).

Gaziev by first-round knockout.

Pick: Gaziev

Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland

I shouldn’t. But I’m doing it. I’m picking Tai Tuivasa.

One thing I’ve enjoyed about the UFC’s matchmaking this year is that it has been transparent about booking squash bouts where it’s obvious who is supposed to win. Tuivasa is supposed to win here. That hasn’t been the case in the majority of Tuivasa’s fights during this brutal slump, but Louie Sutherland is just as susceptible to being knocked out as the fighter he’s replacing, Sean Sharaf.

Certainly, Sutherland could just shoot in immediately and drag Tuivasa down with a single leg, but I don’t think he’s so explosive that he can just hoss Tuivasa to the canvas. He’s going to throw punches first and that should be the only opening Tuivasa needs to finally do what he does best: land meat hammers on dudes’ heads.

It will take less than a minute and Tuivasa will have his hand raised for the first time in over four years.

Pick: Tuivasa

Preliminaries

Cam Rowston def. Robert Bryczek

Junior Tafa def. Kevin Christian

Jacob Malkoun def. Gerald Meerschaert

Colby Thicknesse def. Vince Morales

Ben Johnston def. Wes Schultz

Jonathan Micallef def. Themba Gorimbo

Kody Steele def. Dom Mar Fan