UFC Perth preview, ‘Jack Della vs. Prates’ predictions

170 lbs.: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates

Jack Della Maddalena
Record: 18-3 | Age: 29 | Betting line: -105
Wins: 12 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’11“ | Reach: 73” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.57 | Striking accuracy: 51%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.84 | Striking Defense: 63%
Takedown Average: 0.13 (10% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 64%
Current Ranking: No. 1 | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Islam Makhachev

Carlos “The Nightmare” Prates
Record: 23-7 | Age: 32 | Betting line: -120
Wins: 18 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6’1“ | Reach: 78” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.77 | Striking accuracy: 55%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.53 | Striking Defense: 47%
Takedown Average: 0.21 (100% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 80%
Current Ranking: No. 5 | Last fight: Knockout win over Leon Edwards

Jack Della Maddalena returns to the Octagon after suffering the first loss of his UFC career, getting swept on the scorecards by former lightweight champion Islam Makhachev at UFC 322 last November. Considering Makhachev is the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world and tied with Anderson Silva for the longest winning streak in the history of the promotion, I’m not sure that defeat reflects poorly on the Aussie. Yes, Islam is better, but Islam is better than just about everybody at this point (until proven otherwise). Maddalena is an excellent boxer with sharp combinations and good control of range. That said, he continues to struggle against wrestlers, which is why the unheralded Bassil Hafez took him to a split decision, and why “JDM” needed a Hail Mary to save himself from a loss to Gilbert Burns — who took Maddalena down seven times for over five minutes of control time at UFC 299. He probably would have came up short in his bid to win the welterweight title from Belal Muhammad, but “Remember the Name” forgot the gameplan in one of the dumbest performances in championship history.

“I feel good, ready to put on a good performance,” Maddalena told UFC.com. “There’s definitely pressure being the hometown guy. The majority of the people in the building want me to win, but I try not to focus too much on the outcome. They’re the sort of things you can’t control — winning or losing — so just focusing on going out there and putting on a good performance, a performance I can be proud of. That seems easier than putting the pressure on to try to go out there and win, but just going out there and performing well.”

“Prates is an awesome fighter —really a dangerous guy, an exciting guy to watch,” Maddalena added. “He gets into a flow, and he looks really good. He put a lot of good fighters down for the count; it’s gonna be exciting. You’ve gotta be absolutely switched on — can’t lose focus in this one — but I believe we’ve got the skills to really push him, put a hard pace forward. I believe I’ve got the defensive skills to stay away from the big shots. I’m excited to perform, test my skills against an elite striker.”

Carlos Prates is hoping to resurrect some of the star power of The Fighting Nerds team, which took a major hit late last year (not including this highly-publicized defection) and had fans calling them The Fighting Frauds. Prates was not immune to those struggles, coming up short against Ian Garry atop the UFC Kansas City fight card roughly one year back. That seems like ancient history at this point, as “The Nightmare” quickly rebounded with back-to-back knockout wins over longtime veteran Geoff Neal and former welterweight champion Leon Edwards. I don’t like to make it a habit of finding faults in winning performances, particularly finishes, but Neal has lost four of his last five, getting finished three times, and Edwards has dropped three straight in one of the biggest collapses in the history of the welterweight title picture. Offensively, Prates is a punishing striker with knockout power, coming into his UFC Perth headliner with advantages in both height and reach. Against Maddalena, the Brazilian will have to succeed where he failed against Garry; specifically, by having a Plan B in case the knockout doesn’t come early, something Prates has gotten used to in his nearly three years under the UFC banner.

“I think this is a tough matchup for Jack Della Maddalena,” former UFC fighter and current MMA analyst Alan Jouban told MMA Junkie. “He’s a guy that relies heavily on getting on the inside because he’s a beautiful combination work guy. He’ll throw his jab, he’ll throw his overhand, and dig the uppercut. You’ve got to find a guy that will dance like that, and that’s not the way that Prates dances. Prates is six feet away and then the next thing you know there’s a knee coming six feet high. He’s so sneaky and so smooth, and if he doesn’t allow Jack Della Maddalena to get into that mid-range, it’s going to be possibly a tough night. We might have to see Jack really press the action and put himself in harm’s way.”

“The way that he disposes of people, Prates, for a guy with that type of body, he’s not supposed to have that type of power,” Jouban added. “Power punchers are built like Mike Tyson. They’re not built like a basketball player. But he possesses so much power in that tall, lengthy frame. And that aggressive nature that he pushed forward and makes fighters uncomfortable, and he forces that invisible pressure, and they make a mistake, and he is so quick to capitalize on it. People forget that he has a very extensive Muay Thai kickboxing background.”

Maddalena and Prates have combined for 12 post-fight performance bonuses over the last couple of years and I don’t think there’s any chance in hell we’ll see a boring fight. If Prates is going to win, it’s going to be early by knockout before the Aussie settles down and finds his groove. The more likely scenario is that “JDM” weathers an early storm, then takes over in the second half of the fight by using superior footwork and defense.

Prediction: Maddalena def. Prates by decision

155 lbs.: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld

Beneil Dariush
Record: 23-7-1 | Age: 36 | Betting line: +360
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 8 SUB, 10 DEC | Losses: 6 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.78 | Striking accuracy: 49%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.62 | Striking Defense: 57%
Takedown Average: 2.11 (38% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 82%
Current Ranking: No. 12 | Last fight: Knockout loss to Benoit St. Denis

Quillan Salkilld
Record: 11-1 | Age: 26 | Betting line: -470
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’0“ | Reach: 75” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.16 | Striking accuracy: 57%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.24 | Striking Defense: 44%
Takedown Average: 7.95 (36% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 90%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission win over Jamie Mullarkey

It’s been a rough couple of years for Beneil Dariush, who at one point in his UFC career, was ranked in the Top 5 at 155 pounds and one victory away from a lightweight title shot. Then came knockout losses in three of his next four contests, which included one concussion protocol, and Dariush was promptly shipped to the back of the line. That now makes six knockouts in seven losses and you have to wonder how much longer Dariush can keep this up. In fairness, he’s only lost to the best of the best over the last eight years and he’s made a habit out of playing spoiler, turning away the likes of Tony Ferguson, Mateusz Gamrot, and Renato Moicano, among others. Offensively, Dariush is primarily a grappler with a tireless wrestling game; however, opponents who underestimate his power have gotten knocked out. At the same time, he’s slow as molasses on defense and does not have the sort of durability to keep himself afloat in a firefight. That may not matter at UFC Perth since he’s facing an opponent who also favors the ground game. Regardless, the oddsmakers do not like his chances.

“He’s good,” Dariush told UFC.com. “He’s very good, actually. My job is to essentially shut him down. I think he’s going to be the future of the division, but my job is to delay that. I think experience is going to play a factor. I think just, I think everything he does, I do better, and I can take advantage of that. I would say in the later rounds, maybe, like the third round, the experience really helps. Just being used to feeling that, in the third round, you’re tired, and you’re like, ‘Man, I’ve trained so hard. Why am I so tired?’ But it’s normal, you know? You’re pushing as hard as you can. So I think that experience is something good to have.”

“I think the path to victory is just being well-rounded and being able to outperform in all the positions and situations,” Dariush added. “He’s got skills everywhere, so if I try to do only one thing, he’s going to take advantage of something else. I’m ready for wherever the fight goes. And I think I could put the pressure on him wherever the fight goes. It’s weird. This is the first time where I don’t really have a plan for after this fight. It’s taking things one at a time, and we’ll see, we’ll see what happens after this fight. I have no plans. It’s a new thing. It’s just something I’ve decided. I’ve been praying on it, and it’s been making more sense to me.”

Quillan Salkilld has been exactly what the lightweight division needs in 2026, a young and exciting finisher who’s already racked up three post-fight performance bonuses in just four trips to the Octagon. That includes his UFC 321 snuff film starring Nasrat Haqparast, which remains one of the filthiest head-kick knockouts in recent memory. Salkilld averages nearly eight takedowns per fight, scoring nine against Gauge Young on Dana White’s “Contender Series” and eight against Yanal Ashmouz at UFC 316. Sounds great on paper, but 17 takedowns in 45 attempts paints a bigger picture. He’s unlikely to be as successful against an experienced grappler like Dariush, though he may not have to conserve his energy since they only have three rounds of work. If he’s not winning points by spamming takedowns, or if Dariush makes him pay for the missed opportunities, then Salkilld may end up going toe-to-toe with Dariush in the standup. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, depending on how late in the fight they decide to stand and bang.

“It’s a cool step up for me to fight this guy because I’ve been watching this guy for ages and always thought this is one of the guys I’m going to be fighting sooner or later,” Salkilld told ESPN. “It’s come a bit sooner and that’s wicked. Having that number next to his name makes it all the more exciting because I want to go in there and take that number for myself and take his spot. That’s what I’m going to be looking to do. He poses a good threat everywhere. He swings hard on the feet and he grapples really well. I think we’re going to have some fun grappling exchanges. I’m going to touch him in his head and hopefully put him away that way.”

“Obviously a lot of work between now and then, but that’s clearly the ultimate goal here,” Salkilld said about his title aspirations. “I just think I’m built for this. I’ve always seen myself as being able to get to the top and getting that belt strapped around my waist. I think it’s going to come sooner than most people think. I’ve had this realistic plan of me getting to that stage. But the way things are going, I think it’s going to come a little sooner. It’s just something I’ve always seen myself being, the lightweight champion. It’s definitely going to come into fruition within the next couple of years.”

Dariush spent the better part of his career fighting the biggest names in the sport and has the kind of experience that Salkilld has yet to obtain. That should help him keep the youngster at bay and even create some opportunities to take over if the Aussie can’t figure out how to crack the Dariush code. Then again, he may not need to if he can crack Dariush’s chin, which continues to deteriorate at 36 years old.

Prediction: Salkilld def. Dariush by technical knockout

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Perth main card predictions RIGHT HERE.