UFC Vegas 116 preview: ‘Sterling vs. Zalal’ main, co-main event predictions

145 lbs.: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal

Aljamain “Funk Master” Sterling
Record: 25-5 | Age: 36 | Betting line: +115
Wins: 3 KO/TKO, 8 SUB, 13 DEC, 1 DQ | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 5’7” | Reach: 71” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.45 | Striking accuracy: 52%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.21 | Striking Defense: 59%
Takedown Average: 2.45 (30% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 44%
Current Ranking: No. 5 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Brian Ortega

Youssef “The Moroccan Devil” Zalal
Record: 18-5-1 | Age: 29 | Betting line: -135
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 10 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 5 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.03 | Striking accuracy: 50%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 1.78 | Striking Defense: 66%
Takedown Average: 2.17 (31% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 59%
Current Ranking: No. 7 | Last fight: Submission win over Josh Emmett

Aljamain Sterling abandoned the bantamweight division after losing to Sean O’Malley at UFC 292 back in summer 2023, a second-round defeat that snapped a nine-fight win streak. Most fighters don’t switch weight classes after just one loss, particularly when they have performed as well as “Funk Master,” but he was already struggling to hit the bantamweight limit and had plans to move up anyway. In three fights at 145 pounds, Sterling is 2-1 with a defeat to Movsar Evloev sandwiched between victories over Calvin Kattar and Brian Ortega. I’m not going crazy over the loss to Evloev because the 32 year-old Russian is undefeated at 20-0, having already bested the likes of Diego Lopes and Lerone Murphy, among others. There’s not a lot to dissect when it comes to Sterling, as the two-time NCAA Division III All-American relies heavily on his wrestling, offensively as well as defensively. In fact, Sterling has 17 takedowns in just three fights at 145 pounds. The downside is that he doesn’t produce exciting fights and has just one post-fight performance bonus in 22 fights under the UFC banner.

Youssef Zalal first signed with UFC back in early 2020, making the most of the opportunity and racking up four straight fights within a span of eight months. Unfortunately, he suffered a three-fight losing streak followed by a draw and the promotion sent him back to the regional circuit for fine tuning. Undaunted, the “Moroccan Devil” scored three straight wins with three consecutive finishes and got called back to UFC, where he now stands at 5-0 dating back to March 2024, with four of those victories coming by way of submission. Zalal is fighting in his athletic prime at 29 years old and continues to look better in each fight, though his two biggest wins — Calvin Kattar and Josh Emmett — came against two aging, shopworn featherweights on the downside of their respective careers. He’s also never faced a wrestler with the credentials or experience of Sterling and with a takedown defense of just 59 percent, this could prove to be a long night for the two-time bonus winner. In that respect, the outcome of this fight could depend on what version of “Funk Master” we get in “Sin City.”

Fans love to shit on Sterling for some reason but he’s proven himself in two different weight classes and still performs at an elite level. He’s getting older but unlike some of his peers, he hasn’t taken much damage over the years or suffered a string of knockouts like Dominick Reyes. Until I see him lose a step, there’s really no reason to suggest we won’t see the same combatant who won 11 of his last 13 fights. It’s just a matter of maintaining the conditioning required to outlast a younger, fresher fight across five rounds of grueling action.

Prediction: Sterling def. Zalal by decision

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135 lbs.: Norma Dumont vs. Joselyne Edwards

“The Immortal” Norma Dumont
Record: 13-2 | Age: 35 | Betting line: -245
Wins: 0 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 11 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’7“ | Reach: 67” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.89 | Striking accuracy: 50%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.12 | Striking Defense: 65%
Takedown Average: 1.56 (56% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 68%
Current Ranking: No. 3 | Last fight: Split decision win over Ketlen Vieira

Joselyne “La Pantera” Edwards
Record: 17-6 | Age: 30 | Betting line: +200
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 5 DEC
Height: 5’8“ | Reach: 70” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.61 | Striking accuracy: 53%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.24 | Striking Defense: 50%
Takedown Average: 1.43 (40% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 61%
Current Ranking: No. 11 | Last fight: Submission win over Nora Cornolle

Norma Dumont has been with the promotion for over six years but did not jump out to the best start, getting annihilated by Megan Anderson in her UFC debut. Dumont would quickly find her footing and go on to win nine of her next 10 and “The Immortal” is currently riding a six-fight winning streak. If there’s a knock on the 35 year-old Brazilian it’s that she’s never finished a single fight inside the Octagon and just has two finishes in her entire career, which both came by way of submission on the local circuit. A former featherweight, Dumont is powerful grappler who can also strike from range, thanks to her background (and multiple titles) in Sanda. Matchmakers don’t like handing out title shots to fighters who can’t finish a fight, but the bantamweight division is in desperate need of contenders, so Dumont is probably one victory away from the promised land.

“I think the key to success is my consistency,” Dumont told UFC.com. “As soon as the fight’s over, I come back (home), I evaluate where the holes were, and I think that this is what’s giving me such a good performance against my opponents. To me, I think it’s maturity, both in my personal life and professional life. I think that the more mature I become, the harder I become, the better I become as a fighter, and the harder I become for my opponents. [My opponent is] a complete fighter, but every time she comes against a more experienced fighter, her holes show up. And in my case, that’s exactly what I take advantage of, the gaps in the holes in somebody else’s game, and that’s what I’m very good at. There’s no one else in front of me, so if I get my hand raised, I should be the next one for the title.”

Joselyne Edwards had a start not unlike Dumont, stumbling out of the gate and dropping two of her first three under the UFC banner. Now riding a four-fight win streak dating back to summer 2024, Edwards has finished four straight opponents, two by submission and two by knockout. She only managed to grab one post-fight performance bonus during that span; but hey, that’s one more than Dumont has. Edwards can strike effectively as she comes from a kickboxing background and knows how to use the space inside the cage. Unfortunately, her takedown defense leaves a lot to be desired. “La Pantera” was taken down six times by Ailin Perez and five times by Jessica-Rose Clark. That’s probably why the betting line is skewed in favor of Dumont, who scored six takedowns in her 2024 fight against former featherweight champion Germaine de Randamie.

“[Dumont] basically likes to score a lot during the fights, she’s about that volume out there, but if you see the aggressiveness that I bring to the table, if you see the fighter that I am, have you seen anything like that in any of Norma’s previous opponents? I don’t think you’ve seen that aggressiveness and a fighter like me,” Edwards told reporters during the UFC Vegas 116 media day. “The people that I have, the material that I have to work with at Xtreme Couture, I have everything. I have fighters of every weight class, I have fighters of every style, and that makes me prepared to fight. Winning the fight on Saturday I just feel that I would be able to fight for the title. You get ready, you’re in that position, get ready for a camp to actually fight for that belt. I want to call out on it, I hope they say yes, and I think it would be a great opportunity by winning on Saturday.”

If this fight stays standing, I favor the more aggressive and far more powerful Edwards. That said, there’s no part of me that believes Dumont is going to turn this into a kickboxing match when she has “La Pantera” outmatched in the wrestling. Here’s the good news: this fight is just three rounds, so we only have to sit through 15 minutes of Dumont grinding her way to the scorecards, yet again.

Prediction: Dumont def. Edwards by decision

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