UFC Winnipeg predictions

Let’s not harp too much on whether this could be the end of the line for Gilbert Burns. He turns 40 in July, he’s been through countless wars, and he’s in the worst slump of his career. But let’s allow Burns to tell us when he’s done rather than nudge him out the door.

Now, Mike Malott, we’ve got a lot to talk about here.

At 34, Malott is no spring chicken himself, so there’s a healthy amount of urgency here if the Ontario native ever hopes to fight for a UFC title. His lone loss inside the octagon came against perennial contender Neil Magny and now Malott gets another chance to prove he’s worthy of a top 15 spot. Malott is the definition of the modern UFC welterweight, well-rounded with decent athleticism and power in his hands.

The key for Malott will be neutralizing Burns’ grappling and turning this into a striking battle. Yes, Malott can do some damage on the ground himself, but he’ll be at a disadvantage if they roll for an extended period of time and even with five rounds to work, Malott can’t afford to fall behind early.

I’m picking Malott because I think Burns has entered the “he’s doing well until he isn’t” phase of his career, joining the likes of Israel Adesanya, Tony Ferguson, and far too many others. Malott will catch him and score a knockdown or two, and probably even threaten a finish, en route to a statement decision win.

Pick: Malott

Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain

I swear there’s still time for Kyler Phillips to be a UFC champion.

Look, I get it. He hasn’t been active enough (10 fights in six years isn’t going to cut it). He hasn’t been consistent. It’s been a while since he’s really wowed fans with a performance. Maybe I’m still hanging on to how he started his UFC career as opposed to the fighter he is now. I don’t know.

Then there’s the uncertainty surrounding Charles Jourdain. At featherweight, Jourdain showed plenty of flashes of talent, but never put together a consistent run and by his own admission, he didn’t always take his preparation seriously. Now at bantamweight, he’s picked up two finishes over respected veterans Davey Grant and Victor Henry, and there’s a chance he’s the Canadian contender we should really be keeping an eye on.

This matchup is closely lined and for good reason. Phillips’ boxing makes him a threat to beat anyone at 135 pounds (yeah, I said it!) and he has an underrated ground game, but Jourdain has also shown he’s comfortable trading strikes or snatching necks (his past three wins have all come by guillotine choke).

I have Phillips by decision even though I know I’m living in the past.

Pick: Phillips

Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert

Better late than never for Mandel Nallo.

You don’t see a lot of lightweights make their UFC debuts at the age of 36, but that’s the situation Canada’s own Nallo finds himself in as he enters the octagon for the first time against English veteran Jai Herbert. At a glance, Nallo’s do-or-die results (zero decisions to date) would have you think he’s a reckless berserker à la Terrance McKinney, but that’s not the case. Nallo fights with plenty of patience and is more of an opportunist when it comes to hunting for finishes.

And boy, is he good at taking advantage of opportunities when they arise. The former Bellator standout has an almost preternatural ability to sense when his opponent’s defense is ready to crack and he exploits it to the fullest; on the flip side, he can be overly patient and that might not fly against a striker of Jai Herbert’s caliber.

“Black Country Banger” is the perfect matchup for Nallo, similar in age and overall experience, and someone who will oblige if fans are expecting a standup duel. Herbert is on a five-fight streak of going to the cards, so I’m curious to see if he takes a more strategic approach or ups the tempo to catch Nallo off guard.

Nallo needing the judges feels wrong, so I’m picking him to land a knockout blow before the halfway mark of the fight. “Rat Garbage” forever.

Pick: Nallo

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Karine Silva

Jasmine Jasudavicius’ knockout loss to Manon Fiorot was a huge letdown, but we’re not counting her out just yet.

Even if you don’t think Jasudavicius is the most skilled fighter, she brings a level of intensity that is difficult to match. Aggression and pace can take you a long way in MMA, and Jasudavicius has made the most of it, outworking the likes of Jessica Andrade, Mayra Bueno Silva, and Ariane da Silva. She just needs to protect that chin better.

That shouldn’t be a huge concern against Karine Silva, who has primarily been a grappler in her UFC career. That’s not to say Silva can’t be dangerous on the feet, but Jasudavicius should have less to worry about than she did against Fiorot when it comes to closing the distance in this matchup. So it will come down to who can be busier and I favor Jasudavicius to work her way out of some sticky situations and win positions while dishing out ground-and-pound.

Jasudavicius by decision.

Pick: Jasudavicius

Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young

This could be a frustrating fight for Thiago Moises. As experienced as Moises is, he’s never been known for being the speediest lightweight, to put it kindly, and that’s a problem because Gauge Young is all about sticking and moving and just generally being a pest. And I mean that as a compliment!

Moises is at his best when he can dictate the pace and draw opponents into his web. He’ll have to rely on guile to trap Young, who has great footwork and a wicked jab that’s the foundation of a steady boxing attack. We’ll find out early if Moises has studied enough tape to prevent Young from controlling the distance, because if he doesn’t have a plan, Young is going to pick him apart for 15 minutes.

Young also knows his way around a sprawl, so how exactly does Moises win this? Well, I’m picking him, because I’m guessing he can force the action and eventually get a hold of Young and wrestle him to the ground, where Young will be stuck. It won’t be pretty and Moises will likely have his nose bloodied, but he’ll also wear Young down and snag a submission before it’s all said and done.

Pick: Moises

Preliminaries

Marcio Barbosa def. Dennis Buzukja

Julien Leblanc def. Robert Valentin

Tanner Boser def. Gokhan Saricam

Melissa Croden def. Daria Zhelezniakova

JJ Aldrich def. Jamey-Lyn Horth

Mark Vologdin def. John Castaneda

Jamie Siraj def. John Yannis