Updated Fantasy Baseball Closer Values: Is there any replacing Edwin Díaz?

The save chase is an ongoing thing for winning fantasy baseball managers, although we’ve also learned in recent years how non-closing relievers can also be valuable in our games. So with a few weeks in the books for the fresh season, it’s a good time to do a Shuffle Up at the closing position.

Below is how I’d attack the relief pitcher position if I were starting a draft from scratch today. Don’t get hung up on the dollar values, they’re merely meant as a way to compare the players. What’s important is where the values cluster, and of course, the arrangement of the names.

Assume a 5x5 scoring system, as always. Players at the same price are considered even.

The Sure Thing

$30 Mason Miller

We talk about Mason Miller’s velocity and microscopic ratios and saves and it’s all fun stuff, it all feels like a historic moment. But the stat column of his that really catches my interest is the strikeout column.

It’s not common for relievers to strike out 100 batters or more. The record for relief strikeouts is 183, done by Dick Radatz in 1964 (157 innings). The strikeout high for a reliever in the fantasy era (let’s call that 1990 to present) is Brad Lidge, who punched out 157 men over 94.2 innings in 2004 (he also had 29 saves). Josh Hader also charts on the modern list, with 143 strikeouts in 2018 and 138 whiffs in 2019.

Miller is on pace for 199 strikeouts, over a modest 81.2 innings. It’s absurd.

Lidge struck out 42.5% of batters in 2004, while Hader has several years in the high 40s (his best was 47.8%, a silly number). Miller is currently striking out 71.1% of the batters he faces. It’s so hard to look at his stats and understand them. They all read like misprints.

I would have no problem using a top 30 pick on Miller in a draft that started tonight. You always worry about injuries with pitchers, especially guys who throw in three digits like Miller, but I don’t know why his injury risk would be any higher than any other flamethrower. The Padres are a winning club and the park is a help, too, not that Miller needs much help right now.

We are all witnesses.

The Big Tickets

$23 Cade Smith

$23 Aroldis Chapman

$21 Andrés Muñoz

$20 Ryan Helsley

Smith’s been a little unlucky with balls in play, and his ERA could easily be a run lower. The strikeout rate is still good and Cleveland remains a team set to win games 4-2 and 5-3; they don’t blow teams out. Smith has a good chance to lead the American League in saves.

I didn’t make a major adjustment to Chapman’s ranking, although his strikeout rate has dipped and his walks have risen modestly. Another career year at age 38 was never a reasonable bet, and at least he’s the unquestioned option whenever Boston has a ninth-inning lead to protect.

Muñoz lost his way in two non-save situations, but he’s still allowed zero runs in seven of his nine appearances. The strikeout rate is fine. Seattle remains one of the A.L.’s primary contenders, and I want its closer.

The Injured Stars

$16 *Jhoan Duran - oblique

$10 *Daniel Palencia - oblique

$9 *Raisel Iglesias - shoulder

$5 *Edwin Díaz - elbow surgery, three months

It’s been a rough patch for closer injuries in recent days. Palencia has a shoulder injury, Duran and Iglesias have oblique problems, and Díaz is set for elbow surgery Wednesday, expected to miss multiple months.

The Dodgers could use a past closer like Tanner Scott (38% rostered) or Blake Treinen (4%), and Alex Vesia (36%) is a reliable lefty. If Diaz’s return becomes a thorny thing, they could also explore an outside candidate. It’s reasonable to wonder if the team’s saves leader is currently on the roster.

Atlanta’s handoff is a lot cleaner, with Robert Suárez ready to step in while Iglesias is unavailable. Meanwhile, the Cubs speculation leads us to veteran lefty Caleb Thielbar (18%) and improving righty Ben Brown (3%). Given that Brown is 13 years younger and right-handed, I’d lean towards him first, but it could be a committee for sure. José Alvarado (3%), another veteran reliever, is the first speculation pick in Philadelphia.

Marking Their Territory

$18 Riley O'Brien

$16 Paul Sewald

$16 David Bednar

$15 Emilio Págan

$15 Kenley Jansen

$14 Dennis Santana

$14 Bryan Baker

Early saves are critical when you’re new to the job, so O’Brien’s start in St. Louis gains him traction. Even in his one blown save, he wasn’t charged with an earned run. His control was a concern last year, but he hasn’t walked anyone through 12.1 innings this year, a welcome improvement.

Although A.J. Put is considered the highest-ceiling reliever in Arizona, he’s coming back from an elbow injury and could be two months away. In the interim, the veteran Sewald has ripped off seven quick saves along with a 2.16 ERA and 0.48 WHIP. Sewald is more guile than flamethrower — his fastball is a modest 91.5 mph — but he’s been a credible closer in the past and the Snakes seem to trust him.

The improving Pirates view Santana more as a fireman (go where the trouble is) rather than a strict ninth-inning guy, so we might have to think about 15-20 saves, not the 30 we projected a month ago. But with Pittsburgh ready to be quasi-competitive, Santana’s high-leverage role is still of interest to us. The Bucs have been save-unlucky through 13 wins (just four saves), although Santana has two of those handshakes. I’m holding onto him where I have him.

Sea of Intrigue

$11 Robert Suárez

$11 Peter Fairbanks

$11 Jeff Hoffman

$11 Lucas Erceg

$10 Seranthony Domínguez

$10 Jordan Romano

$9 Jake Junis

$9 Tanner Scott

$8 Joel Kuhnel

$7 José Alvarado

$7 Louie Varland

$7 Caleb Thielbar

$6 Aaron Ashby

$6 Gregory Soto

$6 Abner Uribe

$6 Ben Brown

$6 Ryan Walker

Ashby has run lucky with five wins for the Brewers, though part of that speaks to the role he’s asked to work. With 22 strikeouts in 14 innings, he’s missing plenty of bats. If he can trim down his walks a little bit, I could see him getting the occasional save opportunity. But even if the role sticks to what it is now, Ashby will probably sail to double-digit wins while giving fantasy managers strikeouts, solid ratios and the occasional win. Be open-minded to how non-closing relievers can hold roto value.

The Blue Jays have big dreams after just missing the World Championship last year, so Hoffman (6.97 ERA) might be on thin ice, no matter the recent vote of confidence. Varland has been a regular speculation play of mine, with a spotless ERA and 19 strikeouts (against just three walks) over 12.1 innings. The Blue Jays have other relievers also mowing batters down — Braydon Fisher and Tyler Rogers have both allowed just one earned run each.

Romano was sailing along merrily until last week’s series at Yankee Stadium, where he had two ugly blown saves. I’m hoping the Angels blame it on the opponent and don’t yank Romano from the ninth. He did strike out three of four batters against the Padres over the weekend, part of a scoreless inning.

Bargain Bin

$5 Rico Garcia

$5 Alex Vesia

$5 Brad Keller

$5 Cole Sands

$5 Blake Treinen

$5 Victor Vodnik

$4 Garrett Whitlock

$4 Bryan King

$3 Tyler Kinley

$3 Tony Santillan

$3 John King

$3 Yennier Cano

$3 Daniel Lynch

$3 Jack Dreyer

$3 Keaton Winn

$3 Erik Sabrowski

$3 JoJo Romero

$3 Erik Miller

$2 Antonio Senzatela

$2 Caleb Kilian

$2 Gordon Graceffo

$2 Brock Burke

$2 Jake Latz

$2 Braydon Fisher

$2 Matthew Brash

$2 Chase Dollander

$2 Enyel de los Santos

$2 Huascar Brazoban

$2 Juan Morillo

$2 Tyler Rogers

$2 Kyle Finnegan

$2 Kody Funderburk

$2 Matt Strahm

$2 Justin Topa

$1 Kai-Wei Teng

$1 Anthony Nuñez

$1 Yohan Ramírez

$1 Kevin Kelly

$1 Dylan Lee

$1 Tim Hill

$1 Gus Varland

$1 Jason Adam

$1 Chase Silseth

$1 Will Vest

Do the Twins have a closer? Sands, Topa, Funderburk — nobody has separated. They’ve had five handshakes this year and five different relievers have recorded those saves. Funderburk has the best ERA of the bunch but he’s also walked seven batters against eight strikeouts — I’m never going to bet on that kind of ratio. Minnesota probably isn’t a playoff team in 2026, so the urge to solve the ninth inning isn’t as critical as with some other clubs.

Vodnik is moving into his second year of closing relevance with Colorado and touted prospect Dollander has been impressive as a bulk reliever, but the thin air of Coors Field is an automatic deal breaker for any fantasy candidate here. I can’t risk my ratios being torched, even if it’s not the fault of the pitcher much of the time. When the weather gets warmer, the runs are going to flow there, as they always do.