Value of Things: Draft Expectations

For many football fans, the NFL draft is the THE event of the NFL offseason. It makes perfect sense. In Economics, we teach students about the concept of opportunity costs. Essentially, it is the idea that there are infinite possibilities, but each team can only make finite choices. So, the most exciting time is the time immediately before the draft when every team can imagine every opportunity at their disposal.

All that being said, I am not a draftnik. I let others on the site focus more the minutia of each prospect and positional rankings. It has nothing to do with importance. It is all dreadfully important because the draft is how teams build championship rosters. It is simply an acknowledgment that each of us has a lane and the draft is simply not my lane. I could become an expert with enough time and study, but that would divert my attention from other areas where I am more versed. Like anything else, time is an opportunity cost.

I probably do this every year, but I will outline my expectations for the draft and where most Texans fans should be following Saturday’s action. These are general statements, but they are statements that need to be made. Not every team has the same expectations. That should be obvious, but sometimes these things are not always obvious for some folks.

Expecting starters is unrealistic

This one is pretty simple to parse out. Bad football teams are bad for a reason. Good football teams are good for a reason. If you are a good football team then you have good football players. That means that most of the 22 starting spots are manned by a good football player. Logic clearly dictates that fewer of those slots will be available on a good football team. Let’s ignore the lower draft positioning because after the first round that becomes less important. Simply put, a team’s focus changes on draft day when they have good football players. At it least it should change.

Teams that perpetually good use the draft differently. They look two and three years ahead and forecast which players will become too expensive and will need to be replaced. For instance, a defensive end would not become a starter in Houston no matter how good he is. However, we know Daniele Hunter will eventually be too expensive to keep around. So, having a capable player to groom behind Hunter and Will Anderson makes sense.

Similarly, a linebacker is not likely to start on day one. However, it is highly likely that one of the two starting linebackers will become too expensive. I could go on and on at nearly every position. Teams win year in a year out when they have guys they can groom into starters. This is why most draft grades are meaningless after year one. The question is whether those guys are capable of filling in after two or three years.

Obviously, every team has holes, so the battle is not about best player available versus position of need. That debate is often a red herring. The question is do you focus on a position that will need someone in future seasons or a lesser player that might fill an acute need today? For the Texans, that is perpetually the offensive line versus just about any other position.

There will be grades

I say this with the absolute certainty that I will be doing the same thing. My grades are based on two things: the expectations that different draft scouts have for the player and for my own expectations of which positions were the most acute in terms of need. The idea of making declarative statements about whether a player will perform or not is silly. Still, it won’t prevent some people from doing exactly that.

That brings the obvious question: why do we do it? The answer is simple and banal. We want the clicks and this is the easiest way to get them. I am a reasonably intelligent individual, but I am not going to pretend to speak intelligently about a linebacking prospect from the MAC or Big Sky conference. We will provide profiles on every draft choice here and I’ll probably do a couple of those, but those profiles will be informative in nature and not based on commentary. I have no idea whether any of these guys will be any good and nobody else does either.

Enjoy the show

Life is way too short not to get a little bit of enjoyment out of it. Thursday night in particular is a nice show because you have players that most people have heard of seeing their lives change right before our very eyes. I’m personally glad that college athletes are finally getting paid, but a part of this dampens this event a little. There is nothing quite like a kid realizing that they just got set for life if they don’t spend their money like a drunken sailor.

There will be heartwarming stories to go along with the disappointment of one or two players left in the green room. We often forget that these are human beings with genuine human emotions. They’ve put in the work and they deserve their moment in the spotlight. Obviously, every day after Saturday will be a time where everything these kids do will be scrutinized, debated, and sometimes ridiculed. Let’s let them have their moment and enjoy it with them.

It’s also a time to enjoy the spectacle that is Mel Kiper Jr. as he makes another wild assumption or ridiculous assertion. He is comedy relief at this point in the proceedings, but we all need some laughter in our lives. There will be others building that reputation for ridiculousness along with those that actually know what they are talking about. Pop some popcorn and enjoy the show.