Vikings Earn Surprise Spot on Super Bowl List

Minnesota Vikings running back Jordan Mason powers through the defense during second-half action against the Washington Commanders, keeping his legs churning on Dec 7, 2025, in Minneapolis, Minnesota, as the Vikings leaned on their ground game at U.S. Bank Stadium in a late-season NFC matchup. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images.

Blair on the Vikings as a Super Bowl Dark Horse

Blair named five teams that could follow in Seattle’s footsteps: the Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers — and the Vikings.

On Minnesota, he explained, “Do they have a Dark Side? Brian Flores’ famously formidable defense was as effective as ever in 2025, ranking seventh in EPA per play (-0.14) and points allowed per game (19.6) and third in yards allowed per play (4.7), but the offense could not keep up, with a season-long point differential of plus-11 matching perfectly with Minnesota’s 9-8 finish.”

“Like the Texans, the Vikings have a defense that could drive true dominance, with just a little more support from the offense. Like Seattle, Minnesota has been fitfully competitive over the past few years. The Vikings have plenty of talent, and I have confidence in the coaching regime.”

The Vikings’ defense also added four new rookies in the first three rounds of the draft last month.

Blair added, “If they were also working with the same level of front-office stability that the Seahawks have enjoyed under Schneider, I’d feel better about giving them the top spot.”

“Whoever takes over as full-time GM might knock the job out of the park, but the late-January firing of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah brings some uncertainty to the team-building portion of the equation.”

The Defense Checks the Big Box

Looking for reasons to agree with NFL.com? Look no further than the Vikings’ defense, led by Flores. Flores’s men ranked third in the NFL per defensive DVOA in 2025, fully hitting their groove in December and January — when it should have mattered the most — and propelling Minnesota to a five-game win streak to close out the season on a high note.

In fact, since Flores arrived in the Twin Cities three years ago, he has fostered the league’s second-best defense per EPA/Play, only trailing the Cleveland Browns, a club that somehow has featured great defense with nothing tangible to show for it.

Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Jalen Redmond wraps up Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott during first-half action, finishing the play with pressure on Dec 14, 2025, in Arlington, Texas, as the Vikings defense looked to disrupt Dallas’ rhythm at AT&T Stadium in a physical interconference matchup. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images.

Minnesota’s defense has checked all boxes as a Super Bowl contender — going on four seasons now — so it’s all up to head coach Kevin O’Connell and the offense, which, should, in theory, be O’Connell’s personal baby.

Wait and See at QB

On the offense, well, the Vikings’ quarterback play must improve in 2026. Finishing 9-8 a year ago, Minnesota showcased the NFL’s fifth-worst dropback EPA, a short way of saying the quarterback production stunk compared to the Vikings’ NFL peers. Winning nine games with the fifth-worst quarterback efficiency isn’t a normal outcome. Therefore, the sky could be the limit if Minnesota showcases average-or-better quarterback play in 2026.

Insert Kyler Murray.

Minnesota scooped Murray from free agency for just over a million bucks, and he’s in town to make the Arizona Cardinals look bad. Comically, the Cardinals are paying Murray to play for the Vikings. It’s how Minnesota got away with such a dinky contract. Murray has been compensated for 2026 based on the guaranteed money from his 2022 contract extension.

O’Connell either needs Murray to produce decent numbers or rip the lid off and go full Pro Bowl-caliber. If he achieves the latter, Murray can indeed lead the Vikings deep into the postseason.

Run the Football?

Meanwhile, O’Connell must run the football. Remember the five-game win streak in December? That happened because O’Connell got the memo about running the football. When quarterbacks struggle, a smart playcaller cannot load up and throw the rock 40 times per game. It’s a recipe for utter disaster — Minnesota started 2025 with a 4-8 record, remember?

Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell watches pregame warmups and connects with players on the field before kickoff against the Baltimore Ravens on Nov 9, 2025, in Minneapolis, Minnesota, as the team prepared for a midseason home contest at U.S. Bank Stadium during the 2025 campaign. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images.

So, O’Connell must commit to his rushing offense, and even more than last year, when his team ranked 19th per rush playcall percentage. Nineteenth was a step in the right direction for O’Connell — Minnesota ranked 30th in the same metric in 2022 and 2023 — but now that percentage ranking must enter the top half of the league.

If the Vikings play their usual level of defense, empower Murray to play like prime Murray, and run the football, there’s no doubt they’ll reach the playoffs and bring to life Blair’s dark horse Super Bowl contendership talker. It’s actually pretty simple.