The Kentucky Oaks 2026 may be impacted by rain, affecting the performance of the fillies. Only one horse has experience racing on muddy tracks, which could give them an advantage.
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Watch for this Kentucky Oaks 2026 horse if it rains at Churchill Downs
All signs point to clear skies on May 1, but the weather is hardly ever predictable during Kentucky Derby weekend. The high of 65 degrees, according to weather.com, for the Kentucky Oaks can quickly turn into a colder, rainy climate, especially with the later post time, which could be trouble for the fillies in the race.
Only one of the fillies has previously raced on a muddy or sloppy track heading into the Oaks race at Churchill Downs. The rest will be at a disadvantage, including Meaning, who topped the Oaks leaderboard with 126 points coming into the contest. Sired by Gun Runner, the filly is 3-0-0 over four career starts, but all have been on a fast track.
Kentucky Derby hopeful, Good Cheer, trained by Brad Cox, gallops on the track at Churchill Downs. Photo by Pat McDonogh. April 20, 2025
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Kentucky Derby hopeful, Good Cheer, trained by Brad Cox, gallops on the track at Churchill Downs. Photo by Pat McDonogh. April 20, 2025
Only one filly has previously raced on a muddy track, making her a potential favorite if rain affects the conditions.
The forecast suggests clear skies, but weather can change quickly, and rain is a possibility during the event.
Meaning has a perfect record of 3-0-0 over four starts, but all races have been on fast tracks, raising concerns for muddy conditions.
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Kentucky Derby hopeful, Good Cheer, trained by Brad Cox, gallops on the track at Churchill Downs. Photo by Pat McDonogh. April 20, 2025
So, in the event of rain, who will have the upper hoof in the 152nd Oaks race?
Here's the lone filly who has raced in muddy and/or sloppy conditions and how she fared:
The filly has a pair of top-two finishes when racing on a sloppy track. In her first-ever race, Luv Your Neighbor won the maiden special weight on Sept. 10 at Colonial Downs in New Kent, Virginia. Three months later, the 3-year-old was the runner-up in an allowance optional claiming at Fair Grounds in New Orleans.
Luv Your Neighbor has an overall record of 1-4-1 over seven starts with $204,071 in career earnings.
Reach Louisville football, women's basketball and baseball beat writer Alexis Cubit atacubit@gannett.comand follow her on X at @Alexis_Cubit.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Oaks 2026 horse to bet if it rains Friday at Churchill Downs