Way-Too-Early Texans season predictions: Can Houston secure more than 12 wins?

Cincinnati Bengals (HOME)

Week 2: vs. Bengals, Sept. 20, Noon, CBS

A potential playoff preview? Cincinnati might be one of the league's most improved teams on defense after the signings of Boye Mafe, Jonathan Allen and Bryan Cook. Plus, All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. will go up against former LSU teammate and two-time All-Pro wideout Ja’Marr Chase. Even though Joe Burrow might be able to outduel C.J. Stroud, it's a home game. Give the win to Houston.

Verdict: Texans win (2-0)

Nov 9, 2025; Berlin, Germany; Indianapolis Colts tight end Tyler Warren (84) runs against Atlanta Falcons linebacker JD Bertrand (40) during the NFL Berlin Game at Olympic Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Week 3: at Colts, Sept. 27, Noon, CBS

Even if Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is back in time for this game, this is still a franchise with little direction. Houston remains undefeated with another victory, only this time, it's away from Reliant.

Verdict: Texans win (3-0)

Dec 25, 2025; Landover, Maryland, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Javonte Williams (33) runs onto the field for warmups before the game against the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Week 4: vs. Cowboys, Oct. 4, Noon, FOX

While the Cowboys have one of the league’s better offenses, led by Dak Prescott, what's the deal with their defense? Even with the pieces Dallas added via the draft this offseason, it feels risky putting all that faith into the development of Caleb Down and Malachai Lawrence. Even if the Texans' offense isn't up to par, their defense should handle business against Jerry Jones' boys, proving once and for all who runs the state in terms of being a consistent football team.

Verdict: Texans win (4-0)

Tennessee Titans (HOME & AWAY)

Week 5: at Titans, Oct. 11, Noon, CBS

The hiring of new Titans coach Robert Saleh might be a reason to believe the franchise has a promising future. The problem? Tennessee's offense is still underwhelming and the defense will probably take a year to turn into a similar build to what Houston has under DeMeco Ryans. After winning both games last season, plus four of the last five, Houston secures another win, keeping the undefeated season alive and well.

Verdict: Texans win (5-0)

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (7) is wrapped up by Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Josh Hines-Allen (41) and others during the third quarter of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Texans 17-10. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]

Week 6: at Jaguars (London), Oct. 18, 8:30 a.m., NFL Network

Jacksonville is interesting, especially since it let two of its best players walk in free agency and did little to replace them. It's hard to think that now, with a first-place schedule and an underwhelming offseason, the Jaguars will be a 13-win team back-to-back years. Still, this could be a difficult spot for Houston since Jacksonville will also benefit from already being overseas for over a week. I'll take the Texans, but as time passes, this could be one worth flipping.

Verdict: Texans win (6-0)

Oct 19, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; New York Giants linebacker Abdul Carter (51) reacts after a play during the second half against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Week 7: vs. Giants, Oct. 25, Noon, FOX

This feels like a trap game, mainly because people are sleeping on John Harbaugh as the new head coach in the Big Apple. Even after trading away Dexter Lawrence, New York’s defense should be among the best in 2026, especially with the combination of rookie Arvell Reese and Abdul Carter coming off the edge. Call me crazy, but the jet-lagged week, plus the sight of the bye week around the corner, has Houston slipping ahead of a 10-day rest period.

Verdict: Texans lose (6-1)

Aug 9, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; A Houston Texans helmet sits on the sidelines during the 4th quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-USA TODAY Sports

Week 8: Bye, Nov. 1

Everyone wins since you can't lose the week off.

Jan 11, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) passes the ball defended by Houston Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (0) during the first quarter in a wild card game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Week 9: at Chargers, Nov. 8, 3:05 p.m., CBS

Houston is 1-2 coming off a bye week under Ryans. Does it become 2-2 by the season's end? Los Angeles consistently has built one of the league’s top defenses under Jim Harbaugh, but Justin Herbert has been able to handle playing Houston in recent years. This again feels like a coin flip game, but the home team should be confident for a reason.

Verdict: Texans lose (6-2)

Oct 15, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback PJ Walker (10) takes the snap behind guard Wyatt Teller (77) during the first half against the San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Week 10: at Browns, Nov. 15, Noon, FOX

Myles Garrett is always capable of changing a game and strip-sacking C.J. Stroud for an easy scoop-and-score. Is there anything else to be intimidated by? Not really. Even after an eventful offseason, Cleveland's offense lacks consistent weapons and, better yet, a starting quarterback. Pray this is Deshaun Watson vs. Stroud for a reminder of what could have been in H-Town.

Verdict: Texans win (7-2)

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Riley Leonard (15) looks to handoff to running back Jonathan Taylor (28) during the second quarter of an NFL football game at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Colts 36-19.

Week 11: vs. Colts, Nov. 19, 7:15 p.m, Amazon Prime

Even on a short week, Indianapolis has struggled against Houston, going 5-1 all-time while also going just 2-1 in Houston. This might be the final game of the Shane Steichen era in Indy.

Verdict: Texans win (8-2)

Oct 5, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson (19) runs for a touchdown past Baltimore Ravens running back D'Ernest Johnson (30) during the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

Week 12: vs. Ravens, Nov. 29, Noon, CBS

Everything said about Buffalo against Houston is reversed for Houston against Lamar Jackson. Last year, the Texans won the battle on the road, but that was because Jackson missed the game with a hamstring injury. He's the only quarterback who continues to thump Ryans' defense and he'll do it again with the help of Derek Henry's bruising rushing performance.

Verdict: Texans lose (8-3)

Nov 30, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf (4) runs after making a catch during the first quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

Week 13: at Steelers, Dec. 6, 7:25 p.m., NBC

The Steelers still do not have a quarterback at the moment. To go a step further, Pittsburgh moved off Mike Tomlin to bring in the offensive version of Mike Tomlin. Mike McCarthy usually doesn't win these types of games.

Verdict: Texans win (9-3)

Week 15: At Washington Commanders

Week 14: at Commanders, Dec. 13, Noon, CBS

Washington missed the playoffs largely because of Jayden Daniels' injuries in Year 2. I still think they're missing a few pieces, so even with a road game, Houston finds the edge to leave Landover with another win, this one almost ensuring a playoff berth.

Verdict: Texans win (10-3)

Nov 9, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans defensive end Danielle Hunter (55) and defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) celebrate after a sack during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Week 15: vs. Jaguars, Dec. 20, Noon, CBS

This could be the game that locks up the division. Even if Trevor Lawrence comes out swinging, Houston has the better defense and a consistent special teams game. This should be enough to lock up another AFC South division title under Ryans.

Verdict: Texans win (11-3)

Nov 23, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Philadelphia Eagles safety Reed Blankenship (32) celebrates after an interception in the second quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Week 16: at Eagles, Dec. 24, 7:15 p.m., Amazon Prime

This could be Houston’s toughest game of the season and it has to come before the Holidays. Jalen Hurts likely won't have A.J. Brown anymore, but DeVonta Smith can carry the load in Philly. Playing on the road in that environment will present a major challenge for Houston, but it also could be why the Texans earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Verdict: Texans win (12-3)

Dec 7, 2025; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers defensive end Micah Parsons (1) jogs off the field following the game against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Week 17: at Packers, Jan. 4 7:15 p.m., ESPN

Coming off the high of a win, not everything can be nice. Jordan Love might be a tad overrated, but Green Bay should have Micah Parsons back coming off the edge and stable secondary play. It'll be enough in the cold-weather conditions for the Packers to snag a home win.

Verdict: Texans lose (12-4)

Sep 28, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans defensive end Danielle Hunter (55) sacks Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward (1) during the first half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Week 18: vs. Titans, TBD

Even if the backups play most of the game, Houston is good enough to secure back-to-back wins over Tennessee. At 13-4, expect at least a top two seed in the AFC postseason.

Verdict: Texans win (13-4)

This article originally appeared on Texans Wire: Way-Too-Early Texans season predictions: Can Houston secure more than 12 wins?