We Have a Problem: Mariners at Astros Series Preview

Probable Pitchers

**Updated Stuff+ Explainer**

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

  

  | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Peter Lambert | 22.1 | 24.7% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 44.6% | 2.42 | 2.82 | | George Kirby | 52 | 19.1% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 57.6% | 2.94 | 3.44 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 42.2% | 32.9% | 94.7 | 95 | 118 | 48 | 0.381 | | Sinker | 18.1% | 0.0% | 94.2 | 89 | | | | | Cutter | 8.6% | 16.7% | 92.3 | 88 | | | | | Changeup | 7.8% | 36.0% | 88.6 | 80 | | | | | Slider | 23.3% | 14.4% | 86.4 | 101 | | | | | Slurve | 16.4% | 10.8% | 81.8 | 100 | | | | After struggling to make much of an impact with the Rockies to start his career, Peter Lambert signed a one-year deal with the Yakult Swallows of NPB last year. He didn’t exactly excel, but he showed enough promise outside the oppressive environment in Colorado to earn a minor league deal with the Astros this offseason. He’s been pressed into service thanks to all the injuries Houston has dealt with and he’s looked pretty solid across four starts this year. He developed a straight cutter in Japan and that pitch has been a solid addition to his repertoire. He’s also got an excellent changeup to round out his deep arsenal. | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tatsuya Imai (2025-NPB) | 163.2 | 27.8% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 48.3% | 1.92 | 2.01 | | Bryan Woo | 47 | 20.3% | 4.3% | 8.2% | 30.9% | 4.02 | 3.81 | From a previous series preview: *The Astros emerged as the surprising suitors for Tatsuya Imai this offseason, signing him to a three-year deal well below what many were expecting. Perhaps his contract fell short because it’s really hard to figure out his arsenal. There were plenty of questions about how his fastball would play against MLB batters and pitch models had a terrible time trying to figure out his slider. That breaking ball is unique to say the least. The pitch has the least amount of horizontal movement of any slider thrown in the majors, and depending on how he locates it, it can look like a screwball at times. The heater has looked really good too, benefitting from a low arm slot and a lot of cutting action. Imai will also pepper in a splitter, changeup, and curveball to round out his pitch mix, but the fastball and slider are the two primary weapons.* Imai couldn’t work out of the first inning in his last start against the Mariners, walking four and allowing a single hit in just 0.1 innings of work. He was placed on the IL with general fatigue after that start in Seattle and will be activated from that list to make a start on Tuesday. | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lance McCullers Jr. | 34 | 25.0% | 13.5% | 16.1% | 42.7% | 7.41 | 4.81 | | Bryce Miller (2025) | 90.1 | 18.9% | 8.7% | 15.5% | 37.9% | 5.68 | 5.17 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 3.3% | 6.5% | 91.9 | | | | | | Sinker | 57.1% | 13.5% | 91.4 | 91 | 100 | 177 | 0.349 | | Cutter | 13.7% | 40.6% | 89.1 | 94 | 87 | 106 | 0.368 | | Changeup | 16.5% | 14.5% | 85.5 | 83 | | | | | Curveball | 9.3% | 24.9% | 81.6 | 106 | 151 | 66 | 0.323 | | Sweeper | 35.7% | 10.5% | 82.3 | 117 | 92 | 76 | 0.310 | From a previous series preview: *Lance McCullers Jr. finally got back on the big league mound last season after missing more than two years following elbow surgery back in 2023. It wasn’t an easy return to his previous form. He struggled with his command throughout the season and his velocity was down two ticks across the board from where he was sitting way back in ‘22. His pitch mix looked a lot different too, with his sweeper taking the place of his trademark curveball as his preferred breaking ball. Command is usually the last skill to return after major elbow surgery and he’s now three years removed from that procedure. I’m not sure we’ll ever see peak McCullers again, but he’s got the deep repertoire and experience to be a solid starter as long as his health holds up.* The Mariners scored six runs off McCullers in that series in Seattle; he pitched 4.1 innings allowing five hits and two walks. | Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Mike Burrows | 44.2 | 21.6% | 7.2% | 14.3% | 37.8% | 5.04 | 4.65 | | Luis Castillo | 38.1 | 20.8% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 34.1% | 6.57 | 4.56 | | Pitch | Usage vRHB | Usage vLHB | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Four-seam | 21.6% | 33.9% | 95.0 | 100 | 51 | 88 | 0.403 | | Sinker | 24.3% | 5.4% | 94.6 | 97 | 78 | 94 | 0.380 | | Changeup | 16.4% | 34.2% | 87.1 | 86 | 118 | 140 | 0.250 | | Curveball | 16.4% | 14.0% | 79.7 | 97 | 119 | 66 | 0.271 | | Slider | 21.3% | 12.5% | 89.8 | 95 | 88 | 80 | 0.250 | From a previous series preview: *The Astros acquired Mike Burrows in a three-team trade involving the Rays and Pirates this offseason. He was surprisingly solid for Pittsburgh in his first full season in the big leagues, even as he was overshadowed by some of the bigger name pitching prospects that were coming up through their system. Those same prospects gave the Pirates a surplus to deal from and Burrows ended up in Houston. He throws relatively hard and has a plus changeup to keep batters from sitting on his heater. That offspeed pitch is his go-to swing and miss pitch too, though he has a pair of above average breaking balls as well. Because the Pirates treat their pitching prospects so carefully, most of Burrows’s work came in four- or five-inning stints. He’ll need to prove he can work through an opposing lineup a third time to really take a step forward in his development.* Burrows is coming off his best start of the season, a scoreless seven-inning gem against the Reds. In his previous start against the Mariners, he allowed six runs on 11 hits and a walk in six innings of work.

The Big Picture: